Who wins from this war?

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The FT has an article this morning that notes:

US oil companies stand to receive a windfall of more than $60bn this year if crude prices maintain the levels they have hit since the start of the Iran war.

Modelling by investment bank Jefferies estimates American producers will generate an extra $5bn cash flow this month alone following a roughly 47 per cent rise in oil prices since the conflict began on February 28.

Trump is, of course, arguing that this is good for the USA because he equates high corporate profitability with well-being for the people of the country. As is usual for a neoliberal, he is ignoring issues around distribution.

Oil companies are not the only beneficiaries of the war. As Reuters has reported.:

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said it used $5.6 billion in munitions during ​the first two days of strikes against Iran in ‌a report provided to U.S. congressional committees, a source familiar with the information said on Tuesday.
Members of Congress, who may soon have to approve additional ​funding for the war, have expressed concern that the conflict ​will deplete U.S. military stocks at a time when ⁠the defense industry was already struggling to keep up with demand.
Killing innocent civilians is an expensive business. The likely additional funding noted is expected to be at least $50 billion.
And then there are the AI companies. We know that Palantir is deeply embedded in the military in both the USA and the UK. Anthropic may be in dispute with the Pentagon right now, but it will be gaining nonetheless.
All those companies that profit from delivering destruction are winning from this war, as are all those entities that can charge additional, monopoly-supported prices as a result of the shortages it is creating.
The cost is, then, enormous. The gain can be identified with the usual neoliberal financial elite. The question is, who suffers the consequences?
Here, the list could go on forever, and includes:
  • The people of Iran, the Gulf states, Lebanon and Israel who are suffering the direct consequences of war, many of which, in terms of mental anguish, will last a lifetime.
  • Those who are homeless.
  • Those who are refugees, whom the world does not wish to know.
  • The armed forces that are being asked to engage in this war, many of whom will suffer PTSD as a result.
  • Those will pay the additional costs that shortages will impose.
  • Those who will be asked to pay additional taxes as governments seek to recover the funds used to pay for wasteful spending on this war.
  • Those who will not see the investment in the public services that they need, as politicians claim that resources are no longer available for that purpose, whether this is true or not. The cost of this wall will be seen in terms of economic austerity impacting health, education, investment in public infrastructure and much more. None of this might be necessary, but the neoliberal elite who will gain from this war will not see it that way.
  • Our climate, which is being trashed by this war, which in turn provides the clearest indication of the continuing indifference of so-called leaders to the need to preserve our planet for generations to come.
  • The people of the USA and Israel, who are being asked to support their fascist leaders, many of whom are responsible for war crimes.

As is glaringly apparent, Trump and his team of incompetent people did not think through the consequences of their supporting Netanyahu in this war before they pulled the trigger on the first Tomahawk missile. The price that billions of people will pay for that around the world will never be properly calculated, but the one thing that we can be sure of is that the croies of those who started it will be better off.

We need a politics for people. We need a politics of care. Right now, it feels that we are a very long way from both.

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