There has been something strange taking place on Sky News over the last day or so. A succession of retired former generals and security chiefs, including a British former deputy chief of NATO and the former head of MI6, have been appearing in interviews that can be found on their X channel, all of them saying the same thing, which can, however, be broken down into three parts.
Firstly, this war in which we are now engaged makes no sense. There was no legal justification for starting it. There is no justification for pursuing it. And there is no known goal, and so, as a strategic mission, this is a profound mistake.
Secondly, there is no precedent for such a mission succeeding, and no reason to think this one will. Regime change from the air has not worked and will not work on this occasion, and there is no way in which a combined operational force that can take on Iran on the ground can be assembled without massive cost, financially and militarily, neither of which anyone is willing to incur.
Thirdly, there is a very real risk that Israel and the USA will lose this war, as will the UK, as a result of its collateral involvement. Iran has been preparing for war for a very long period of time. It has a very large stockpile of admittedly low-grade missiles available to it, plus an enormous capacity to manufacture drones. Israeli and Western defence forces have not reacted in the way that the precedent in Ukraine should have suggested to be necessary, which is to create cheap anti-drone defence mechanisms. The consequence is that Israel and the USA are much more likely to run out of weapons than Iran is, leaving Iran with the potential capability of controlling this region militarily, which is just about the last thing that anyone would wish, given the nature of the regime in that country and its apparent indifference to imposing suffering through loss of human life.
The conclusions appear to be consistent.
- No one should have started this war.
- No one knows how to end this war.
- Iran was at the negotiating table before Trump ended all options of continuing that process, so suggesting that negotiation is now the way forward is a virtually meaningless gesture.
- And, most particularly, we might lose, risking a fundamental change in the balance of power in the world.
You could dismiss all of this except for the quality of the people involved. These are serious talking heads with a massive amount of experience between them, all of whom appear to be scared witless by what is going on, the consequences of which they are obviously finding hard to imagine or embrace.
My suggestion is that we should share their fear. The West has let fascism govern its agenda because that is what Trump and Netanyahu are pursuing. Too many countries, including the UK, have obsequiously fallen in line behind these staggeringly incompetent leaders. We might pay an enormous price for this.
The need for a new political order in the West has never been greater. What those leading that new order might need to consider is just where countries like the UK stand within the new hierarchy of power that might well emerge very soon if, as now seems possible, US military hegemony ceases to be effective in international political economy. I am not sure that thinking has been done.
Rarely have we ever marched into the unknown so ill-equipped to manage the consequences.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
I am hearing that the ‘succesful’ decapitation strike was not as successful as the Trump regime is telling us. They thought Iran would not be able to respond or that Iranian army would give up. I don’t see any evidence that Iranian state is leaderless or that there is a power vacuum. Who ever was tasked with contingency plans is very much alive.
Profound.
I often find these old war horses who have real world experience of death and conflict, and who poopascoop politicians’ messes, speak with more clarity and sense than the oily political puppets in power.
Carney’s speech at Davos is starting to look hollow as he seems to be falling into line behind Trump.
That is not what I heard this week
No one should have started this war.
No one knows how to end this war.
And, most particularly, we might lose, risking a fundamental change in the balance of power in the world.
Which could have been said wrt the 30 years war which started in 1618 and by 1640 most countries just wanted it to end – but did not know how.
Quoting C.V. Wedgewood @ the end of her book on the same subject: “They did not learn then and they have not learnt since: war only breeds war.
Imbeciles, liars, war mongers, crooks. That is who is “running” the show, then and now allowed to do so by a supine population.
I read Wedgewood as a sixth former
The US was in negotiations with Iran when they attacked Iran. The only serious lesson this has given any country is do not bother negotiating with the USA, it is not trustworthy.
This war is having massive implications across the world. Trump has just agreed to let India buy Russian oil.
I am trapped in India like many others around the world. The High Commission here have said they will not help us.
We are ruled by a bunch of cowards, too scared to stand up to the orange baboon
I wouldn’t want to live in Iran or any other country in that part of the world, I don’t want to sound hypocritical. I have Iranian friends, who I met through the humanist movement, who fled their country, leaving their families behind, because they don’t believe in any god and as such staying in their country of birth became untenable, not to mention unsafe.
However, I believe the Iranian rulers care more about human suffering and loss of life than those ruling the US and Israel, not to mention the UK, who all care nothing for loss of life, in fact we only have to digest the horror of those crazies in the US military and elsewhere who are in raptures over it. The more blood spilt the better in their demented brains.
Also Richard I’m sure you are aware that sanctions imposed on ordinary Iranians has caused immense suffering, and who imposed those sanctions?
Also that mossad and cia agents have been on the streets of Tehran helping whip up anger against the Iranian leadership.
I’m not whitewashing Iran but they’re not the worst in the world in my view.
I’ll just add that there are very obviously men (and some women!) In the US who’d like to turn their country into Gilead.
I am making a clear point: I condemn Iran
I also condemn Israel and the USA
They are all variants on fascist states.
If the dominant ideology in the West is neoliberalism, then that means that we are subject to certain points that need to be taken into consideration.
Firstly, regular readers and supporters of this blog are well aware that neoliberalism is exactly what is says on the tin, that it is an ideology based purely on assumptions, false arguments and equally false premises. On those bases alone, the list is endless.
Secondly, because of the first point, it follows that the general populations of the West are subject every day to narratives which are intended to guide our general thinking about the matters and issues which crop up in the news. A typical example is our old friend the “Household Analogy of Government Finances”. We know it’s nonsense, but most people blithely accept it when politicians get on their soap boxes or high horses and tell us why they cannot do the things that people elected them to do. I should add that active military leaders and security service chiefs say in their public pronouncements as the politicians expect, because their salaries depend upon it.
The essential strangeness that the current situation suggests derives from this clash of expert opinion from the retired generals and security chiefs and the dominant narratives our leaders want and expect us to believe.
Their careers have been built on situation analysis and response guidance, and so they can only refer to reality if they have any integrity.
Unfortunately, our politicians tend to go with the narratives, which just makes them look stupid to us.
The Tories and Reform are currently proving this in spades, so more fool the government for allowing themselves to be browbeaten by such an incompetent band.
And that’s it!
Thanks