Everyone knows there was no legal justification for the war on Iran now being waged by Israel with active support from the US, and quiet support from the UK.
There was no threat to the US that could require its involvement.
There was no immediate threat to Israel.
There was no evidence that Iran has restored whatever nuclear capacity it had, which was bombed last year.
This illegal war was about regime change. The best claim for it was that it might bring a better life for Iranians. There is no evidence that aerial warfare has ever delivered this outcome.
The cost will be enormous. This is the UK gas price, from Trading Economics, at around 7.15 am this morning:
This could increase UK energy costs per household by £500 a year.
The oil price increase is not so steep, but it might add 0.3% to inflation if it continues.
And the FTSE is falling, as I predicted. The 6-month view makes clear how sharp the reaction is:
The tipping point has happened. I suspect the bubble is bursting, although US data is a little less clear, whilst Japan is as emphatic:
What does all this mean? Who knows? We face uncertainty. But what I think we can say for sure is that this forecast, made by the Office for Budget Responsibility yesterday, is wrong:
The idea that we will get flat line, 2% inflation for four years from 2027 is absurd, and that would have been true without this war.
It is as absurd that we would get this growth pattern:
Yes, that is flat line 2% growth as well.
This was a day when fantasy met reality. The Office for Budget Responsibility's absurd claims came up hard against the reality of Zionist-inspired aggression and lost heavily.
So will we. Have no doubt about it. This war is going to be very costly. Neoliberals are out of ideas. War is one of the few things they have left that they can imagine doing to sustain themselves in power. We will all pay a very heavy price for that.
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So do the US war plans have an Endgame?
How will it end
Who will form the new Government in Iran
Will the outcome be stable
Will the new Government be better than the old?
I suspect not
Me neither
“We will all pay a very heavy price for that.”. Iranian people doing that right now (150 dead school children?).
As for the UK, the only reason UK citizens will pay more for elec is because of the marginal market – which prices elec @ the cost of gas. Woth emphasising: elec wholesale price is directly linked to the SPOT MARKET PRICE of gas, even though every owner of gas generators buys gas ahead (yearly, half yearly, quarterly etc). So these rip-off-merchants are generating elec @ a blended gas price that is +/- Euro25/MWh whilst selling elec based on the spot gas price. I’m now working with a former director from DG Competition. We will be having discussions soon with Competition. Abuse of dominant position, rent seeking, etc etc. By the way, looking for an accountant that can forensically take apart network operator accounts (we are going after those rapacious bastards as well).
This won’t happen in the UK cos Amamzon now runs UK competition policy (ex-head of Amazon UK now heads what is laughably called the UK Comeptition rabble). Why would I bother speaking to an imbecile? I won’t. Pity UK citizens aka two legged cash dispensers for monopolies etc.
Thanks Mike
That is not me…
[…] have already noted this morning that the growth forecast in the Office for Budget Responsibility's predictions, which were […]
Trumps actions will have an impact on UK consumers especially if gas prices continue to rise.
The UK inflation rate then increases. The Bank of England response is likely to be do nothing to the base rate or more likely to increase the base rate to combat inflation.
We will be told that ” we can find money to increase defence spending but we must cut the education ( take your pick of where the cuts will fall) budget to pay for it”.
Madness. No steer is heading to election oblivion.
The Iranian regime is undoubtedly theocratic, murders and executes its own citizens, has an authoritarian dress code for women and would like to build a nuclear weapon in secret and have well meaning westerners say “Well, the evidence they’re about to get one is weak”. Until the fuse goes in I suppose, Iran would also like to effect regime change in Israel by spreading terrorism around the region.
But the West is far far worse because what they’ve done isn’t legal and the threat isn’t immediate.
It is not our job to do regime change.
It is our job to defend against the consequences of a regime.
There is no evidence at all Iran now has nuclear capability.
There is no evidence it poses any real threat to Israel except when attacked.
You are talking total nonsense, excepting the last point.
This is part of the 1918 Anglo-French Declaration published in main cities of Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.
“Far from wishing to impose any particular institutions on the populations of those regions, their [ie France and Great Britain’s] only concern is to offer such support and efficacious help as will ensure the smooth working of the governments and administrations which those populations will have elected of their own free will to have; to facilitate the economic development of the country by promoting and encouraging local initiative; to foster the spread of education; and to put an end to the dissensions which Turkish policy has for so long exploited. Such is the task which the two Allied Powers wish to undertake in the liberated territories.”
In fact League of Nations mandates were imposed on those areas delaying independence. The Turkish administration had been very poor and did not involve the Arabs. There was a good case for a period of having western involvement. And there was access to oil. It was vital to the western economy.
We may recall the name of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, “operation Iraqi Freedom” .
Trump when announcing the attack on Iran said ‘Your day of liberation is at hand.’
We have been “liberating the people of the Middle East” for a long time.
This might be the final time. If it is, Israel will be very exposed.
Thank you, Ian.
The initial name for the invasion was Operation Iraqi Liberty. That was soon changed for obvious reasons.
All: My father retired from the RAF in the spring of 1991 after 27 years. He served in that war, plus Aden, Northern Ireland and the Falklands. In late 1992, dad went to work in Saudi Arabia, retiring in the spring of 2015. Mum and I visited him and the region regularly.
In addition to serving as one of the royal family’s doctors, he taught medicine and worked on public health projects around the MENA region and further afield. One project was how to address the use of depleted uranium and other toxic material by the US and its allies in that illegal invasion. In the mid-1970s, dad wrote a paper for the RAF on the US use of defoliants in south east Asia.
Other than autocrats and their hangers on and exiles who collaborated with empire, no one wants the US and its vassals in the region.
“royal family’s doctors”
Which Royal Family?
Thank you Colonel
I had an uncle who was a real colonel -of the Gurkhas.
I only had one long conversation with him as an adult. He was a ‘pukka sahib’ but I was struck by the respect he had for Indian people and how he once told off new officers from England making racist comments. ‘Cities in India had street lighting and proper sewage when London was a collection of mud huts’ was a comment I remember.
I could tell you of my maternal grandfather who was of working class origin and served in the Hong Kong Police. His retirement project was to do a better translation of the Rubiyatt of Omar Khayyam but sadly his health didn’t hold out.
There are many people who can build bridges between cultures and be enriched by it. We hear too much of the other sort.
Richard forgive me for multiple remarks today
Forgiven!
I value them.
Yesterday I listened to a documentary on Radio 4 about the founder of the Save the Children charity, Eglantyne Jebb. A must listen, if only to remind ourselves of how sordid and depraved is the notion of war and its consequences. One thought that stood out – she stated that “she had no enemies under the age of 7”. All war is a recognition of failure, humanity is capable of so much better. It is always the innocent that suffer the most. Trump is without doubt a loose cannon and Starmer should wear Trumps taunts with pride.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08njv62
Thanks
“This illegal war was about regime change.”
This is what this war is about:
1. Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu needs this war to get re-elected and stay out of jail.
2, The Orange person, Donald J. “Dump”, needs this war to deflect from the Epstein investigation AND deflect from his failures in/with Ukraine.
I am going out on a climb but, based on the many people I have spoken with, I am in confident in stating there is large support in the USA for” whatever” it takes for Ukraine to defeat Putin. There is NO support, I mean ZERO support, for whatever you want to call what is going on in Iran.
The only good that will come of this Iranian mess is that Independent and Swing voters will be flooding the polls in masses during the mid-term elections to vote for Democrats in order to rid the House and Senate of Dump’s MAGA cronies.
I made the first two points on Monday…
Aside from the political or moral side of this escalation, we are already seeing the price effect on oil and gas, as that has increased any Bank of England interest rate cuts have seemingly evaporated and now there is talk of an increase to the base rate to counter inflation. As a lay-person I don’t understand the logic, the price increase is an external pressure, (most) people in the UK are not flush with cash so an interest rate increase intended to put the brakes on spending seems foolish as energy spend is not discretionary or luxury it’s a basic service.
You are right to question the logic.
When inflation is driven by rising oil and gas prices, which are set on global markets, it is the result of an external price shock. It is not primarily (or at all) caused by excessive spending by households in the UK.
Interest rate increases are designed to deal with a different problem. They are meant to reduce demand in an economy that is overheating i.e. when too much money is chasing too few goods. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, discourage investment, and reduce consumer spending.
But energy is not discretionary spending. People cannot easily choose not to heat their homes or fuel their cars. If the price rises because of events in the Middle East or decisions by oil producers, increasing UK interest rates will not reduce that price.
What it does do is increase mortgage costs, raise rents, and discourage business investment. In other words, it suppresses activity in the rest of the economy without addressing the cause of the inflation.
Central banks often justify this by saying they must prevent “second-round effects”, for example, wage increases chasing price rises. But that assumes workers have the bargaining power to drive sustained inflation, which is often not the case.
So your instinct is sound. When inflation is imported through energy prices, interest rate rises are a very blunt instrument. They risk making households poorer and slowing the economy without solving the underlying problem.
Given the potential impact of interest rate rises on mortgage costs and rents etc. that you spell out, I think you could even go as far as arguing that interest rate rises would themselves be inflationary under such circumstances as it would surely just add to increased wage pressure (if labour had any real bargaining power).
I’m not sure how exactly they work, but would price controls be something to consider?
Rate rises are inflationary because they are reflected in so many rents we now pay.
Better to cut interest rates than require price controls.
Probably no coincidence that the markets most affected are China, Japan, India and Sth Korea, who are all supplied with Iranian oil. Korea’s Kospi index fell 20% over two days. US markets have barely budged unfortunately as a significant shift would likely make Americans think twice when it hurts their pockets.
There is a broader range of potential harms than just the financial ones. Bearing in mind Ukraine as well as the Middle East, alongside planning for financial instability the Government should be developing detailed contingency plans around:
1. Energy Resilience
Clearer public accounting of strategic fuel reserves and release mechanisms.
Stress-testing fuel distribution logistics (refineries, ports, road haulage).
Contingency coordination with the International Energy Agency.
2. Supply Chain Security
Mapping vulnerabilities in critical imports (fuel components, pharmaceuticals, electronics).
Shipping disruption planning (insurance, rerouting, port congestion).
Rapid-response frameworks for temporary shortages or price spikes.
3. Critical National Infrastructure Protection
Enhanced protection for energy terminals, ports, telecoms hubs, and data centres.
Cyber-defence upgrades against state-linked or proxy cyber operations.
Regular resilience exercises under the Civil Contingencies framework.
4. Domestic Security Preparedness
Updated threat assessments from MI5.
Protection of public venues and community-tension monitoring.
Clear response protocols for any attempted retaliatory incidents.
5. Military and Overseas Contingency Planning
Force protection reviews for UK personnel in the region.
Improved evacuation planning for UK nationals abroad.
Parliamentary oversight of any expansion in military commitments.
6. Public Communication Strategy
Preparing for transparent, measured communication to prevent misinformation or panic buying, and
Cross-party briefings to maintain political stability during external shocks.
Do you think any of this is happening?
You know it isn’t
Agreed.
Only the people living in Pleonexia-ville are going to enjoy this conflict, as the interest rates go up.
In their world, interest rates create ‘discipline’ so that all debts are paid over anything else.
It’s like when you are a housing association going to a private bank to get a loan for your affordable development – you get the loan but then they bank might suggest that they are worried about your exposure to risk so, to avoid interest rates they suggest building ‘headroom’ in your budgets to cope so that whatever happens, you can pay what you owe. So, they’ll help you look for ‘efficiencies’ at your staff costs and suggest that you ‘lose’ staff or close down the odd local office (bollocks to the tenants, evict them if you don’t pay).
Similarly, to ‘pay what you owe’ ordinary people will have to cut down on ‘discretionary spending’ (a can of beer or bottle of wine or packet of fags or putting the heating on or fixing the roof, or ‘losing’ the cat).
No nothing matters more than paying your creditors!
Welcome to the rentier autocracy folks.
Thanks