This Tweet uses data from Lord Ashcroft's polls:
This is the seat forecast:
Let's be clear: it is just a poll.
Let's also be clear: Labour supporters need to realise that, in many cases, they are now going to be wasting their votes.
If they want to beat Reform, they have to shift their thinking, and now is the time to start doing so because, outside London, they're now toast.
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This even before the fallout from the attack on Iran – a country run by an unpleasant regime but which poses exactly zero threat to the UK.
If LINO had any sense (it doesn’t) it would take the PR route. May will show how things will look in 3 years or so time.
I sincerely hope they are obliterated in May, but given PR in e.g. Scotland this looks unlikely.
LINO delenda est.
The Greens are viewed as a joke for those like me left of centre. It’s just hard to vote for them.
More fool you then.
And you would rather vote for Labour?
You do know it is heading far right now, don’t you?
ex-Labour MPs such as Lloyd Russel Moyle could have been classed as “left-of-centre” – oh what is this I see? Mr Russell-Moyle has… joined the green party. Oh!
One has to question how far Labour support will hold in London. At the last General Election the Green Party can second in 19 parliamentary constituencies. Locally they are not helping themself when the central party (right wing) can overrule the local party (left wing).
As an instance, since a disputed leadership elections in Southwark last summer seven former Labour Councillors have resigned – four of whom defecting to Green…so far.
Agreed
Their last bastion may yet fall.
It should also tell Labour of the dangers of FPTP.
Tories with 3% of the vote more than Labour, get 100 seats more.
Reform with 5% of the vote more than Labour, get 176 seats more.
On this one poll, Labour are fighting for votes on several fronts. Against Reform, the Greens, SNP, and Plaid. Battles they will either lose, or a split vote lets the fascist in.
Farage as PM, Braverman as Inequalities Minister, and King Canute Tice as Energy Minister. All it needs is for Liz Truss to join them and be made Chancellor, and we have the four horseman of the apocalypse running the show.
If Labour do not smell the coffee now they never will.
Unlike Tice the unfairly maligned King Canute was all too aware that he couldn’t command the sea.
Ha!
The joy of democracy, eh?
Democracy, what democracy? Surely you can’t mean first past the post?
The Greens could try to form a rainbow coalition!!!
@Bob Ensch
if Reform gets 216 seats, and the Tories 140 seats = 356 all told, they will form a Coalition, with the Greens unable to match those numbers.
Actually no other grouping could surpass such a Coalition, when it would have 356 seats out of a total of 650.
But the swing might continue
Lord Ashcroft Polls, hmmm – ‘we asked 100 skydivers would they use a parachute, they said’ ………………
@Bob Hawes
I don’t blame your scepticism, as IMO Ashcroft’s polls are closer to campaign material = aimed at influencing outcomes, than scientifically generated information.
Let’s just hope that a lot of left of centre voters see the sense of tactical voting for the Greens where it is expedient.
I asked ChatGPT to comment on the accuracy of Ashcroft’s polls. It told me
“Lord Ashcroft Polls have a mixed track record:
Independent ratings place them among the less historically accurate UK pollsters.
Some constituency-level estimates have been reasonably informative but with noticeable errors in key seats.
Polling inaccuracies or mistakes have occurred and been publicly corrected.
They are generally seen as useful snapshots of public opinion, but their results should be interpreted with more caution than those from top-ranked mainstream pollsters.”
Furthermore it also said
“Independent pollster ratings (which compare past polling with actual UK general election outcomes) consistently place Lord Ashcroft Polls near the bottom of the list in terms of accuracy. In the most recent overall rankings, they scored significantly lower than many other firms and were graded D–, indicating relatively weak historical accuracy compared with other pollsters.
When looking at trends across the last few UK general elections, Lord Ashcroft’s accuracy remains low relative to other polling organisations — with a trend rating substantially below most mainstream pollsters”
Thanks
I suspect looking at the Ashcroft poll if the parties of the right with their media chums carry on improving they will be the coalition in power in 2029.
For the Left wing political parties to put aside individual ambition and come together in time to fight the GE sensibly using tactical voting on the ground in each constituency is a huge ask especially with the Electoral Commission changing the boundaries.
For the Left wing parties to win Labour would have to make substantial changes and this looks increasingly unlikely because neoliberal views hold sway in their social & political circles. I suspect as a party machine they would rather go down with their ship.
Does that mean the Left wing parties shouldn’t try? Of course not.
But how to align, what core platform to build together with a frankly feral media circulating round them will be very challenging.
Agreed
Popular vote:
Centre / Centre Left….. 49%
Radical Far Right……….. 42%
Very much in line with the recent Yougov. Yet on this you’d get a moronic, wrecking, unwanted far right government.
The voting system is not fit for purpose.