As The National reports this morning:
Reform UK are set to become Holyrood's second party as the SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, according to a fresh poll on voting intention.
The Find Out Now poll, commissioned exclusively by The National, projected that the SNP would win 36% of the constituency vote, with Reform UK in second – but 15 points behind – on 21%. Labour polled at 12%, the Greens 10%, the LibDems 9%, and the Tories 7%. Alba scored 2%.
The charts look like this (the left-hand column is the constituency support and the right-hand column the regional support under the Scottish PR system):
The SNP will be near a majority in Holyrood with this support. With Green support, they will be governing again.
Reform's support is worrying, but contained, although having them as the Opposition is not good. However, the accountability will be deeply uncomfortable for them.
And note this:
- Labour is fourth
- The LibDems are fifth
- The Tories are sixth
Scotland is rejecting the mainstream parties of England.
Unsurprisingly, polling also shows majority support for independence, again.
The times, they are a-changin'.
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I was delighted to see that this morning. Less delighted at the rise of Reform, but as I’ve said before I see their rise principally as a shift to a more-hardened Unionism rather than the bat-crazy stuff you see in their English support. Kind of like unionism in Northern Ireland has drifted from the UUP to DUP and now to TUV. It’s how beleagured minorities work. Essentially politics in Scotland is moving from the Union – we are halfway out of the door emotionally and culturally – support for the rancid “Windsors” is dropping everywhere, but was already below 50% in Scotland when QE2 died – and politically. I saw the National’s poll on indy support; most interesting was the young/old split: 2/3 of the young want out; 2/3 of the old want to stay in. It’s a matter of demographics, now.
Much to agree with.