Nigel’s flatlined

Posted on February 13 2026

The first shows something I have suggested for a while, which is that Farage is now flatlining when it comes to support:

Labour remains in trouble, but there is no doubt that Reform has plateaued. The Tories have, quite extraordinarily, recovered a little.

Why is that? This chart reveals all:

Starmer might be profoundly unpopular, but so too is Farage, and being the incumbent always reduces popularity, making Farage's ratings particularly significant. He is profoundly disliked by people in the UK, and that is influencing political behaviour in ways that are almost unprecedented. No wonder we are seeing so much tactical voting.

As for the Tories, Badenoch has found her feet and jettisoning idiots to Reform has done her no harm, and them no good.

Who is the winner from all this? Zack Polanski is. The Gorton by-election result is going to be very interesting.

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