I noticed this Tweet yesterday.
I cannot embed the Tweet here. Follow the link to listen to it.
I also did not watch the original programme from which it is taken, so I am not sure whether there is more information to contextualise what was said, but the clip is long enough to be sure of Micelle O'Neill's message. She wants a Northern Ireland border poll by 2030. The right to hold one is provided for in the Good Friday Agreement. I am sure the timing is deliberate: she knows that the Catholic majority in Northern Ireland is growing by the year. She and Sinn Féin know they have the power to deliver this deal now.
Does this mean we should assume the Union is over? I think so.
And once Northern Ireland decides to leave the Union, the constitutional grounds for objecting to polls in Scotland and Wales will likewise fall away.
It's time to think about another country. Or rather, other countries. The UK is going to be over.
The question is, then what?
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It certainly looks like we could be seeing the end of the Union and precisely no reaction from Westminster.
An indication of the inadequacy of our politics and political class
I anticipate several more years of belligerent screaming from Westminster governments of all prospective governing parties. No prime minister wants to be the one that “lost” Northern Ireland, Wales or Scotland, and that egotism will continue to drive their policies toward the devolved nations. The time may come when each nation has to peacefully take matters into their own hands.
What worries me, given the treatment of the Palestinian protesters, there is a precedent for suppression add the incompetence of the Westminster parties and any attempt at suppression in Northern Ireland and Scotland could lead a small minority to violence.
I think that England could very well end up becoming like Monaco or some other ‘tax efficient’ state? It might centre on London (or what is left of the City – and I mean the old institution and Lord Mayor set up there that remains very powerful and inscrutable). It could be the south east up to say Luton or even lower. As it unravels it will be mess – it already is – they’ll be parts of the coast line being lost to the sea on the Eastern seaboard, some losses too on the West, infrastructure everywhere is in decline. Maybe those of us living in north west Derbyshire, we might want Scotland or Wales to come along and rope us in, as long as we are not being ruled by the greedy short sighted swine in London who have shrugged off the rest of the country anyway as not their concern?
For me, nothing has changed since Tory rule from 2010. We are still in a grip of some sort of ‘Khmer Blue’ regime wanting to take us back to year zero (BSS – Before Social Security), where the landed gentry ruled the country but this time we will be Godless because they’ll be none of that to keep the rich in check (their god is money and that means power). Feudal rights will centre on keeping your trap shut.
The more I think about what Cameron and Osbourne did from 2010, after a private sector induced crash, the more angry I get and the more I want revenge. It’s not nice, but that’s what I feel, for sure.
Cameron, Osborne and Clegg. Never forget the LibDems.
Agree always thought Ireland would go first, for a start they have a process.
It would be a lot faster if the Republic were not in a neoliberal mess too. Housing is a disgrace, a completely solvable problem trapped by vested interests.
Countries taken by force cannot be a true union. See the amazing petition of ordinary Scots 300+ years ago. A forced marriage.
Agreed
The power to hold a border poll within the Good Friday Agreement, lies with the UK Secretary of State. I think that unless there is pressure from the Eire Government, the UK will always, as they do with Scotland, declare that “now is not the time”.
Oh come on, this is an international agreement, with US support. The UK is not able to make this decision alone.
There is a snag.
‘in order to create a united Ireland, unification must have the support of the people of both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement provides that a majority of voters must be in favour of a unified Ireland in both jurisdictions to effect constitutional change’. Quote taken from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10101/
It is quite possible that Ireland may not want them. I was in Northern Ireland for a holiday a few years ago; at the time there was a general election for Stormont. I was shocked by some of the election material I saw, and I came home concerned that in the event of a vote for a united Ireland, there would be a mass exodus of Ulster unionists to Scotland. I certainly don’t want them here, I can’t speak for my fellow Scots. I wouldn’t blame the good people of Ireland for not wanting them there either.
You ignore the role of the EU, and the possibility that NI would be an EU Protectorate for a while.
But do not doubt the issue is real, and will not go away.
In response to Sue H: the other snag is: many/most/all Ulster Unionists have Irish passports (as is their right) – this includes the leadership. This means unhindered travel to the EU. Of course, passports can be withdrawn. I don’t doubt there will be some headbangers still within the UU’s (or whatever they call themselves these days) – but unhindered travel in the EU is a very useful thing to have.
Agreed
I have it.
The sad thing is, that for the last 45 years we could have made the Union a place we would all have been proud to be part of and had a democratic and devolved say as to how it and our various bits of it should be governed.
But our leaders and elites entrenched their privilege at the expense of the rest of us. So a different future lies ahead for each country.
I fear that in NI, a certain small section of the “loyalist” criminal classes will create a crisis of violence, so that any poll is impossible. Westminster will be quite happy with that and hypocritically use it to their advantage. Who could deal with the crisis? Why Tony Blair of course!!!
I think you have your tongue very firmly in your cheek.
And this is now a law and order, not a political, issue. Some of it always was.
When I wrote it, I was thinking of one type of street level so-called loyalist or so-called republican criminal. But now I think about it, having suggested Tony Blair as a tongue-in-cheek solution, maybe my subconscious came up with the word “criminal” for another reason entirely. (My internal subconscious “Real Intelligence” legal adviser suggests I stop at this point.)
I have family living in NI near Dungannon involved in farming and food businesses, and I visit at least eight times a year.
The Good Friday Agreement does not stipulate a year by which a referendum must be held and the decision to hold one is at the discretion of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
The political, economic, social/historical/psychological and cultural influences are certainly complex and only residents of NI will be involved in the referendum. This book. “For and Against a United Ireland” is an excellent overview of the arguments https://undpress.nd.edu/9780268211189/for-and-against-a-united-ireland/ but whether it will be widely read is debateable.
There is no requirement within the Agreement to hold citizens assemblies on reunification before the border poll and only after a pro-union vote will there be a real need to agree the ramifications with London, Dublin & maybe Brussels and that could take a long time.
I’m sure that Dublin will surge into action as soon as a border poll becomes likely as both the political class and the social media will want to ensure that union is seen to be beneficial from the Republics viewpoint.
And, of course, Brexit has added yet another dimension the debate in Westminster.
As we have got to know the community and the differences between the communities, education, and life over here, I think this will be a challenging decision for NI citizens when the poll arrives. Unfortunately the media and social media in particular will launch truth, half-truths and lies to add to the mix of opinions.
Meanwhile, we will be in Belfast for the Peace Proms and a birthday so I can’t get to Cambridge – apologies – I was looking forward to meeting some well-known contributors.
All noted and known.
The one thing not to forget is that the GFA was built on goodwill. If that is ignored, the cost will be high. The intention was always if the people wanted it the Secretary of State should act. To pretend otherwise would be a travesty of justice. I am relying on that.
Every stage of this long overdue inevitable process is complex and controversial.
But every stage is also a historic milestone, to be labelled as a great victory, a great betrayal, liberation, occupation, victory or defeat or a great diversion, depending on one’s background, politics, power status nationality, criminality, religion etc.
So step one – the call for a border poll by a Sinn Fein First Minister is an event in itself, no matter how many obstacles lie between that and re-unification.
And just that public statement will have consequences. Nothing in the island of Ireland has ever been easy.
I suspect that O’Donnell may have more obstruction from Dublin than from Westminster. As a Sinn Fein Stormont moves in one direction, a right-wing Dublin (about to end years of international non-alignment) may move in the other.
One day, Ireland, one day…
That Irish government is a stitch up.
Its days are numbered – as are the two parties that make it up. Their day is done, and no one too soon. Neoliberalism has impsoed a heavy price on younger people in Ireland.
Thank you, Richard.
Godspeed to the Celts and border counties tempted to get away with them.
May I sound a note of caution: There are neo con elements in the British establishment that are egging on West Britons in the Republic, hoping that the Republic will join NATO, at least, and have a closer relationship with the UK. They are also in league with loyalists. Care must be exercised so that these scoundrels don’t cause chaos in the north.
There is no doubt they will try to do so.
Talking to friends and relatives in the Republic there is no enthusiasm in the south for a reunited Ireland. No one see it as inevitable and no one really wants it or see any benefit from it. Their thoughts are reflected in the Irish government – Dublin sees no advantages in a reunited Ireland and only a mass of problems integrating with the north that they can do without. They’re doing fine on their own thank you very much (I know there’s an argument about Ireland’s status as a tax haven).
So the question is Northern Ireland may well vote in favour of reunification but what if Dublin refuses and says it wants to remain separate from the north – what happens then?
Sinn Fein is now the biggest party up in the copuntry of Ireland – albeit not with a majority, and kept out of power by an elite stitch up. Were you talking to that elite?
Normal, educated people. I wouldn’t call them “elite”. I found total indifference to reunification, which made me come to the view that a referendum might fail whichever party is in power in Dublin
Ok
Much to agree with in all the preceding comments and, while I want to see Scotland at least on a clear path towards independence in my lifetime, I recognise that other factors may prolong that process. For instance, the last thing Scotland needs is an influx of Orange Unionists to Scotland if Ireland votes to unify. Arlene Foster is on record saying she’d move to Scotland if that ever happens, but we’ve got enough religious bigots here already without her or her Ulster followers complicating matters further, thank you.
Another hurdle for all of the devolved nations is the intransigence of Westminster to any prospect of independence regardless of public opinion. I can’t speak for Wales or N Ireland, but Scotland has been a great source of wealth for 4 centuries, particularly during the boom years of oil and gas extraction, and is currently getting screwed for wind and tidal electricity, with fresh water supply highly likely in the future (even if the English water companies get their act together) as population increases overtake supply availability. It’s colonialism by any definition.
In Scotland we have an additional problem in that the MSM is stacked (about 95 to 5%) against independence, with the English parties (Labour, Tory, Lib-Dem & Reform) as well as the English-owned press and the BBC routinely falsifying facts and statistics for all manner of topics. I suspect that The National, for all its small circulation, is the most reliable and truthful newspaper in the UK.
Many years ago author and artist Alisdair Gray suggested that we Scots should “Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation”, which was engraved in the Canongate Wall of the Scottish Parliament Building in Edinburgh when it opened in 2004. Without conscious effort, I found myself increasingly thinking that way as the UK’s political landscape became increasingly farcical and exploitative, so much so that I now regard most UK MSM as “foreign news”. It’s neatly encapsulated by author James Robertson’s “The News Where You Are” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhL57cjN8xY
Thanks, Ken. Appreciated.