G. Elliot Morris is a psephologist (polling analyst) in the USA. As he noted in a post I was notified of overnight:

Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot. As I'm writing this, approximately 99% of the vote has been counted, and Rehmet carried the seat 57.2% vs his Republican challenger, Leigh Wambsganss, at 42.8%. That's a 14.4-point margin, and a 31.4-point swing vs Harris's margin in 2024 (if you ignore votes for minor-party candidates, the swing rounds up to D+32).

This swing of 32 points from Trump's 2024 performance is the largest Democratic overperformance in a competitive special election since Trump took office.

As he notes, this is in effect a by-election in UK terms. The swing may be exceptional, but it is still extraordinary. After excluding the exceptional factors and attempting to forecast a broad-based swing, he projects a 7% swing to the Democrats. As he notes, that could be enough to swing hardcore Republican Texas to the Democrats.

He adds caveats, though:

Of course, lots of assumptions are being made here, so don't consider this a concrete prediction. I've done the same analysis in other special elections and it usually suggests something more D-leaning.

The point is: a big wave is gathering. For Democrats, tonight is another piece of evidence that the 2026 midterms are going to be a good year for them (if the elections are free and fair, which is not guaranteed).

So, four thoughts.

First, people have seen fascism, and they don't like it.

Second, this is now being confirmed in growing swings in real polls.

Third, what will the fascists do in response? We know that Trump is no fan of democracy. Will he let it happen?

Fourth, what if he does not, in the face of growing evidence that he will lose badly?

The fallout does not beat thinking about with CE on the streets as Trump's Gestapo private army.

Additional note:

I have just noted that I am not the only person to comment on G. Elliott Morris' post on this election. Heather Cox Richardson, in her overnight Letter from an American, noted this:

Tonight, voters flipped a seat in the Texas Senate from Republican to Democratic in a special election. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinist, defeated right-wing Republican Leigh Wambsganss for a seat that Republicans have held since the early 1990s. Robert Downen of Texas Monthly noted that in the final days of the campaign, the Wambsganss campaign spent $310,000 while Rehmet spent nothing, and Daniel Nichanian of BoltsMag posted that overall, Wambsganss spent nearly $2.2 million more than Rehmet in the campaign. Both Texas governor Greg Abbott and Trump himself publicly supported Wambsganss.

And yet, as G. Elliott Morrisof Strength in Numbers noted, voters flipped a district that Trump won in 2024 by 17 points to Rehmet, electing him by a 14.4-point margin. After removing the minor-party candidates in the vote, the swing from the Republican in 2024 was 32 points toward the Democrats. In Texas.

The spending data is significant: money cannot buy Trump love.

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