New polling data is out from Scotland. Party support there looks like this (and remember, in Scotland there is a form of proportional representation, so people vote for both a constituency MSP and for a regional party list, each returning members to Holyrood):

As my colleagues on The National note:

According to a seat projection from polling expert Professor John Curtice, if those results played out in the May elections, the SNP would return 59 MSPs, six short of the 65 needed for a majority.

However, the Greens would return a record 13 MSPs, meaning the Scottish Parliament would have 72 pro-independence members.

The resulting seat allocation would look like this:

Why does this matter? There are several very good reasons.

First, it very obviously matters to those who believe in an independent Scotland.

Second, the collapse in the support for Labour is massively important. Remember that Labour took a large majority of the Westminster seats in Scotland in 2024, and now it looks as if they will struggle to come equal fourth in 2026.

Third, if events turn out like this, this represents a rejection of all the major Westminster parties, and not just Labour. The old order is dead.

Fourth, at least in Scotland, it seems as if Reform is being contained.

Fifth, the Greens have always done well under the list system in Scotland, but look as if they might do better. The nationalist vote is looking as if it might learn how to vote tactically. The Greens in Scotland are not the same party as in England and Wales.

Sixth, the SNP looks as if it will continue to form the Scottish government, which was an outcome that was unlikely only a year ago.

Finally, and seventh, it looks as if Scotland might elect a strongly pro-Independence parliament, again. For how long this can be ignored by Westminster is now a very real question, and in the event that Reform did form a government in Westminster, the conflict between that government and the government in Scotland might become so severe that the move towards independence might be reinforced, albeit in ways that are unpredictable.

As a note in this morning's video, Scotland and Wales are the only parts of the UK where there is some sign of new political hope at present, and in each country, those with vision are providing that hope, as Sinn Féin might be in Northern Ireland. It is independence from Westminster that might, from May 2026 onwards, dominate the agendas in three of the four countries of the UK. For how long is the pretence that we are a United Kingdom viable in that case?

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