Many people will have seen reports of an opinion poll published by YouGov yesterday, based on interviews with 13,000 people spread over every constituency in the UK. This type of polling is usually believed to be far more accurate than the typical poll based on a sample of around 2,000 people, which is the commonly used basis for most opinion polls published in this country.
The new poll, which forecasts the result in every constituency because of the way in which it is prepared, suggests the following map of Westminster seats, coloured by the affiliation of the constituency MP that would represent them:
The polling forecast, which is the mid-range expectation based upon the interviews that took place, produces the following number of seats per party:
The changes per party are quite dramatic, as shown in the legend to the map.
As is apparent, Labour would be decimated, but so too would be the Tories. The ruling hegemony in the UK from the last century appears to be on its last gasp.
The worrying prospect is that Reform could come close to a parliamentary majority, and with the Tories, could govern the UK.
There is, however, more to this than that. As is apparent, a massive swing would occur in Scotland, where the SNP would become the majority party.
Slightly surprisingly, given other current opinion polls in Wales, this is not replicated there, where the country is effectively reduced to a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid Cymru, with Reform coming out on top, and Labour almost completely disappearing from its heartland, particularly in the South Wales valleys. That said, PC would have their historically best ever result.
The LibDems would also get what would be, for them, a record haul of seats, slightly increasing the number that they have at present, and dominating the southwest.
The Greens would also have a record number of seats, but of somewhat lower amount, based on successes in Bristol and (to my surprise) in Huddersfield, but would be a long way from a breakthrough.
All that being said, no one will be surprised to hear that I find the prospect of this outcome deeply troubling. Everything about Farage and his neo-fascist party disturbs me deeply. But what I can also tell by looking at the projections for a large number of seats is that their margin for winning is, in most cases, very small. In other words, this might look pretty grim, but the situation is actually incredibly volatile. Three ideas flow from that.
Firstly, everything is still up in the air. There is no reason to be completely despondent, and there are a lot of opportunities for Farage to make a complete mess of things between now and 2029, as may Trump, leading to a significant decline in Farage's popularity if it becomes glaringly obvious that the consequence of voting Reform might be the dismantling of democracy, as looks to be the likely outcome in the USA now.
Secondly, the case for proportional representation is very clear.
Thirdly, the case for Scotland being an independent country, because it's so clearly different in political perspective from the rest of the UK, is obvious, with that being slightly less clear in Wales, although none of the political parties that used to dominate the scene there now seem to have any significant presence, quite extraordinarily.
In all of this, then, the most obvious question to ask is why isn't electoral reform once and for all on the agenda of every mainstream political party?
Labour and the Tories used to object based on their own self-interest, but very clearly are now losing out as a consequence of first-past-the-post.
Reform has said it is in favour of electoral reform in the past, although if that commitment remains now is hard to know.
Everybody else wants PR. Surely, in that case, the time has come, and no one can argue otherwise just because that means a substantial haul of seats for Reform, if that is what the people of this country want?
I want to live in a democracy. The last thing of significance Labour might ever do is decide if I have that option in the future, or not. Is that too much to ask of them when it clearly aligns wth their own self-interest now?
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The poll was Great Britain, not UK. N. Ireland ignored again.
Accepted
The support for Reform just shows once again that they are fighting their battle on a different field. Their councillors are a disaster, their MPs are useless, their Mayor in Lincolnshire is unhinged. They do nothing but make fools of themselves. This isn’t seen by their supporters seemingly. They are just following vibes based politics on Tiktok and Facebook and other social media sites. There is a narrative being fed that the main parties aren’t challenging, and the Left don’t have the internet eco system to challenge, as the internet is biased towards fear. This is why I like your tactic of amplifying the danger of neo fascist Reform. It’s both true and emotive. They would be incompetent at best, but dangerous at worst.
Thanks
What these polls can’t factor in is the effect of tactical voting. Labour benefited hugely at the last election from people voting to get the Tories out. At the next election there will undoubtedly be a similar effort to stop Reform. I agree that it is likely both major parties will be decimated. The Lib Dems have strong local bases and will likely hold up well, and I think the Greens will do much better than this prediction. A minority Reform government would be a total disaster. I can’t see anyone working with them, and if they shed MPs at the rate they are currently shedding councillors, it will be pretty disastrous and chaotic. We so need PR. And our country desperately needs a decent government.
YouGov acknowledges this issue in its write up.
If the polling remains like this, then Labour’s choice is of leading a coalition under Proportional Representation that would be more left leaning than the current government, or handing the keys if government to Reform under FPTP. It really is as simple as that.
Agreed
I did a quick bit of searching and found that the latest date that the next general election can be held on is 21 August 2029 (it appears this is based on five years from the date parliament first met following last year’s general election plus 25 working days which is the length of the election timetable).
Which means, if that is accurate, it is one month short of 4 years for proper challenging of Ref*** to take place by the so-called mainstream media, Labour to start working for everyone in this country and making everyone’s life better, progressive parties to start working together to challenge and defeat the rise of fascism and Ref*** to continue to demonstrate that they are not even fit to run a bath let alone run an entire country. Oh, and one month short of 4 years, for electoral reform to take place.
Craig
I wonder what percentage of Scots will not vote in any further English (Westminster) elections. I voted – reluctantly – in last year’s.
No more though. I will not turn out for an English government which ignores my country – and Wales and N. Ireland.
Scotland doesn’t belong in the union. Hopefully, we will be on our way out of it when the next English election is held and Reform can do its worst – in England – if that’s what England votes for.
So vote for a pro-independence party.