We published this YouTube short video this afternoon:
Reform is polling at 34%. That's more than Labour or the Tories. In this video, I explore what this means for the future of UK politics – and why we're now at real risk of a neo-fascist party gaining power. If we want to protect democracy, we need electoral reform now.
This is the transcript:
Many people will have seen this opinion poll finding that was published in the last couple of days by LBC, the news radio station. They ask people, "Who would you vote for in the event of a general election now?" And look at the outcome.
The Tories on 17%.
Labour on 15%.
The Lib Dems on 9%.
The Greens on 5%.
Less than half the people in the country want to vote for the mainstream political parties that dominate the scene in England, at least.
But look, who else they are going to vote for. 15% said they might vote for Jeremy Corbyn's new party, which doesn't even exist as yet, and 34% said they'd vote for Reform, a party that has already lost two of the five MPs that it had elected last July, and is in chaos in the councils that it runs, and cannot frankly organise the proverbial in a brewery.
But the key thing is, look at that data. 49% of people will either vote for a party that is essentially neo-fascist and completely unable to manage itself, or which doesn't even exist.
If there was ever a measure of how little people believe in the mainstream political system in the UK, this was it.
But there is something that the mainstream political system needs to do as a result. Our democracy is under threat. If this vote were replicated in a real general election, we would be in crisis because Reform might get 500 seats.
Now, I'm not saying people shouldn't vote for Reform. That's people's right.
But I am saying that they are neo-fascist, and I defend my right to say that based upon their policies and everything that they put forward, which is deeply divisive in our society, particularly on the grounds of race.
And I believe that we therefore need to protect democracy. And to protect democracy, we must have a proportional representation voting system in the UK, so that, yes, for sure, Reform can get one third of the seats in Parliament if that is what people want. But other people should be represented as well. And the risk is that with votes being spread in the way shown here, other people will get no chance of representation at all.
We've already seen the problems that this gives rise to. Labour has a completely unfair and unreasonable majority at present in the House of Commons because it is not supported by the number of people that its majority would supposedly suggest.
Therefore, reform, and I'm using reform there with a small R and not a capital R, must take place because we must protect the people in this country and their right to choose, and with this kind of political breakdown, we won't have that right because a neo-fascist party will be swept into power and who knows what will happen then.
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The changes needed go very deep. Bar proportional representation, which still runs the risk of a Farage-led government, it is impossible to tinker with the present system. We need to accept that UK political governance has evolved to a dead-end.
Starting afresh usually only happens after conditions get very bad: revolution, independence movements, civil war, and such like.
UK political governance is essentially the 1662 settlement with a few tweaks, granting absolute power to whichever tribe wins a majority of seats. The result is corruption (perhaps not so bad under this government), disillusion, a culture of any lie goes. and utter incompetence because good people will not come forward to serve.
For many years I have read The Independent, but I have written to the managing editor today to protest at its move to pro-establishment, shown clearly in an editorial
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/starmer-rebel-mps-suspended-welfare-b2790954.html
I said in part: “This morning I read an editorial which was utterly complacent about British politics. What happened to the slogan “The Independent. It is. Are you?” You have gone full establishment, seeing Parliament as a vehicle for an autocratic executive to impose its will. No wonder the quality of MPs is so poor. No wonder people are fed up with the major parties. No wonder people are losing interest in the mainstream media.”
Thanks
Why is it impossible to change the status quo?
That strikes me as very defeatist.
The status quo is difficult to change because the punditry surrounding it – MSM and others – feed of the central power and will not countenance any dimunition of their “sources”. The forces of inertia are remarkably strong. This is not unusual and is why change comes from civil war or revolution.
People keep asking me what sort of country we have become.
And my only answer is that it is a country without the ‘o’ in it.
Richard wrote a thread on not being able to use the work for a male body part. Why is it acceptable to use a word for a female body part?
Apologies if I missed that.
Having seemingly compromised Richard with my post I think it fair to respond to JenW.
I’m working class through and through and these terms I live with even now even after going to University and working in the public sector. They are widely used I’ m afraid – there is a lot anger frustration out here and casual use too.
I thought my post and its inference (please note the facts) was humorously sardonic – expressing an uncomfortable truth, in this case about the rise of the Reform party, and the people foolish enough to want to vote for it which I understand is something we all mostly agree with here.
Unlike the people who used the word ‘knob’ that Richard criticised, I am not the member of a rich cabal pouring scorn on people who just want to be heard and offer a difference of opinion. Nor do I live at the expense of rich donors helping me to ignore such opinions and punish people for having them. Nor am I involved in promising something and delivering nada.
What I am is what a lot of us are – a victim of some sort, a recipient of poor policies, biased points of view, greed, insouciance and corruption, who has been trying to live and thrive with his family and friends.
Instead of becoming violent about this or blaming immigrants, I chose what I thought was humour, a coping mechanism in the face of injustice and stupidity (the context), although I knew it was bit risque.
By all means delete it – I’m not offended – I have been coming to this wonderful blog for some time, but I do not expect to be treated any differently. But that is all I have to say. Well, it’s not really – I mean we could have a really good chat about the use of genital terms in political discourse………………but then again, perhaps not. The ‘C’ word like a lot of words leads a double life – as slang in some settings, celebratory, feminine and powerful in others, but then again, maybe I’ve have read too much Germaine Greer.
We just cant let this happen – what can we do????
Long week, much to worry about. I feel utterly desperate.
What can we do? What must we do?
I am too tired to think tonight
Are Deform neo-fascist or just a bunch of clueless chancers that could not run a piss-up in a brewery.
Deform run Kent and are making a dogs dinner of it. “We are going to cut waste” etc. Oddly there is not much to cut.
But there are lots of other problems – pot holes? etc. Ditto other councils where people have been unwise enough to let know-nothings run things.
Justr guessing but maybe they will foul things up enough to at least cast their chances of winning a general election into doubt.
Electoral reform? Maybe – LINO will get wiped out in Wales & Scotland next year so perhaps Zionst-Starmer will do something (or be told to do something by his controllers).
They are run by Mr Farage, as a business where he has ultimate control.
I would encourage everyone to look into his past, what he was like as a kid and what others say about him. He has been on Russian state television, multiple times. There has been allegations about pro nazi viewpoints when he was a kid and he always seems to be arms length from many extreme groups. Close enough for passing association but far enough away that he can deny any involvement.
They are a threat to national security and everyone in this country, watch the USA if you want a preview.
What can we do? Wait for them to tear themselves apart and hope that Labour come to their senses and do a 180 and adopt some of Corbyn’s policies. Maybe get a pet unicorn while we’re at it.
This is how they have started in County Durham.
https://northeastbylines.co.uk/news/environment/reform-led-county-durham-council-scraps-climate-declaration/
Apparently we are going back to the Roman times when grapes were grown on Hadrian’s Wall. The leader knows all about business, having bankrupted a few.
The article even got into The Guardian.
My mother-in-law was born in Germany in 1936. Of course, as a kid, she didn’t fully understand what was happening during her childhood, except remembering that it was scary and hard. But lately, she talks a lot about how things didn’t seem to fall apart overnight, it was a slow creep. People seemed to gradually accept more and more, until it started to feel inevitable. She rages at some of today’s populist politicians, she’s seen where that kind of rhetoric and leadership can lead. And the scary bit is that they were elected. ‘Democracy’ can be captured – sell a simple story, and many will buy it. It might lead us into very scary and dangerous territory. But we already have a map … (small ‘r’): reform is urgently needed.
Thanks
Underlying this poll are two fundamental failures of thinking. One there is no legislative justification for believing the government operates on a credit card. Two it should be obvious if you save in government securities you will be withdrawing demand from the economy which can only be offset by government running a deficit.
Correct
It’s certainly worrying that this poll suggests that even if LibDem, Green and Corbyn+ supporters combined forces they would still have less support than Reform. But of course if I were asked who I’d vote for, I’d want to say “The best candidate in my constituency” (because I may trust a candidate who is not in the party I would most wish to win a majority). That is in fact all anyone can do anyway. But the poll doesn’t seem to offer “Independent” as an option even though there are many constituencies that have strong independent sitting MPs or plausible local candidates.
In understanding our current position it is helpful to think of elite overproduction. We have too many people expectant of a certain standard of life and career, and too few positions to accommodate them. The dwindling positions are due to inequality. The only route to wealth now is from the patronage of the already wealthy, the financiers, billionaire class, corporate class. Politics is now just a route to access this patronage. Reform are an insurgent “counter elite” looking to access the wealth by offering a new, alternative way to control us. It’s a standard pattern repeated through thousands of years of history, with variations here and there, but the same basic combination of inequality and elite overproduction. Two examples of who Labour, and Starmer actually serve can be read here;
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/rachel-reeves-keir-starmer-labour-finance-private-equity-takeover/
And here:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/varun-chandra-hakluyt-investigation-lobbying-keir-starmer-kwasi-kwarteng/
Bear in mind that there is one particular pollster, “Find Out Now”, with an unusual methodology, that shows exceptionally high votes for Reform. If you look at other pollsters, they show a healthy Labour lead of 16 to 20 points. Don’t get sucked in by the media’s determination to constantly hype up Farage and Reform.
https://pollingreport.uk/polls
Why are you posting 2024 data?
The clue’s in the name, Richard. “Theophile” is a snail!
I know…
Sorry! Good catch, I used to use that site a lot and the prominent dates only showed the months, I didn’t check the year.
Richard,
I personally am very wary of believing opinion polls of any kind, unless who is paying, why, etc.
These that favour or promote Reform have a whiff of orchestrated promotion.
Example of inappropriate behaviour example threats, asking for data to be ignored or changed is Nadhem Zahawi founder of Yougov.