Is there a path to peace in the Middle East? In this video, admittedly made before this weekend's attacks by the USA, but which do not in any way change the key message, I unpack the issues and suggest that current leadership is failing.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
What is the end game in the current Middle East crisis?
Let's not deny we have a crisis. It's been developing in Gaza for two years and, well, since 1947.
The Israeli-Iran conflict now going on is obviously a massive escalation, and we have uncertainty on where the US is going and for how long.
The point is, we are therefore seeing the escalation of war, emanating from Israel in the first instance in every case, and the end game isn't clear.
What is obvious is that Benjamin Netanyahu is incredibly good at creating conflict, but what nobody knows is where these conflicts end.
He might say, and he does say, that his goal in Gaza is to eliminate Hamas, but Hamas is a culture within some parts of the Palestinian community. He can't get rid of an idea any more than he can eliminate the idea of Palestinian nationhood; people have the belief in that nationhood, they are Palestinian by choice. They ethnically believe that is what they are. So he can't end that by a war.
And it's very clear from commentary coming, even from within the USA, that there is no way in which a war against Iran can result in a successful regime change. Let's be honest, President Macron has said this. He has said that regime change in Iran, if that is the goal that Israel has, and the goal which the US might share with it, is going to lead to crisis, chaos and uncertainty on a scale which is utterly unacceptable.
And we've seen this before. Let's be clear. It happened in Iraq. The aim there was regime change, and it happened. But we hardly solved the problems that Iraq faces, nor did we liberate the people of Iraq to choose their own future, any more than we might, I'm afraid, not liberate the people of Iran to choose their own future if it is imposed externally. That is not a route to peace.
Nor is there any military way at present of eliminating Iranian nuclear resources if that is what the goal is. We were succeeding with that goal until 2018, under agreements to regulate, monitor, and control those weapons. It's Trump who abandoned that, and now we face the consequences.
So, the point I'm suggesting is that, actually, what we are seeing is a situation where Netanyahu is totally politically cornered and legally exposed on so many fronts that it's almost impossible to count them. And Trump is excited by the possibility of war, but that's because he doesn't really understand US diplomacy. But what we actually need is an agenda for peace because all we are currently seeing is fascists in alignment against the possibility that we can have a peaceful outcome.
And other regional powers are looking for that outcome.
Let's be clear about this. The players I've already mentioned are basically Israel, the USA, France and other European powers. But let's also bring into the scene Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. They all have roles to play, and all of them have opinions on the issues that are going on.
Turkey is vehemently anti-what is happening in Israel.
Egypt is treading a careful line around Gaza, but clearly wants a rebuilding process to take place.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been implacably opposed to each other for decades - centuries - because of their adherence to different types of Islam, but they too have opinions to take into account. So there is no one solution here.
There is only the idea of diplomacy. And what that diplomacy has to lead to is, first of all, a genuine ceasefire; not a surrender, because a surrender is not an acceptable option for Iran, and it's not an acceptable answer, of course, for Gaza. And it isn't language that Israel would want to use either. So it has to be a situation where change is created by diplomatic discussion.
There has to be real reconstruction at the core of that for Gaza.
There has to be a solution for the problems of the West Bank, and there is no doubt, as a result, that Israel is going to have to back down and find new solutions, because let's also be honest, Netanyahu is one of a group of very old men who are heading many of the countries involved in this dispute, and they are against the general prevailing norms.
Polls show that most people want peace and justice in the Middle East.
Palestinian statehood is very popular around the world, including in countries which are denying it, like the UK.
Civilians everywhere are the hostages to failed leadership in that case.
I'm not belittling the hostage dispute that is going on in Gaza by saying that.
I'm also not belittling Israel's holding of Gazans in Israeli jails by saying that.
I'm saying we are being failed by our leadership, who are trying to force us into positions of hostility, which none of us want to be in.
Real peace means listening to people, everywhere. Not just generals, and not, most especially, ageing politicians.
So, the US must now push for a ceasefire, and it must now push for a permanent settlement.
Shuttle diplomacy has to be back on the agenda, and the recognition of Palestine as a state is absolutely essential by everyone, including those countries that have been holding back, like the US and the UK.
It is possible to recognise Palestine as a state because countries like Spain, Ireland, and Norway have done it. We know that this is possible, and what we have to do is talk about a new relationship between partners who are going to be sustainable. All of them, of course, including Israel, absolutely fundamentally including Israel, but in relationships which can be maintained.
And that does, of course, require that Iran complies with the requirements of the agreements that it signed more than a decade ago, to regulate its nuclear industry, which Donald Trump abandoned, and it does require that Israel also sign up to nuclear non-proliferation treaties because they have refused to do so to date, indicating just how partisan their situation is.
But bombs aren't the solution to these problems in the Middle East.
It's been said before, and no doubt it will be said again, but the point is that just because it's been said before and it hasn't happened, doesn't mean to say it isn't the right way to go: peace has to be the goal for the Middle East. There can't be anything else.
And in the absence of any other agency able to assist that delivery, the UN must also be involved in these issues because they have the capacity to provide peacekeeping troops, borrowed from other nations. But they are, and it has worked in so many territories, and they can call out what is going on if things go wrong. So, multilateral talks are required. The UN is the only agency capable of delivering that at the end of the day.
And peace is not naive.
It's necessary.
Escalation now would be failure.
Negotiation is leadership.
Recognising Palestinian rights is central to finding a solution, but so too is recognition that Iran can choose its own leaders, even if we don't like who they are, and we don't like the way in which they emerge. We have to live with the reality that there are multiple ways in which governments are created, and by no means all of them are very good, including, let's be honest about this, some of those in democracies, in the countries that are supposedly imposing solutions here.
We must reject endless war, and we must choose a better future. And the only way in which we can do that is by finding a pathway to peace.
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Israel cant ‘Destroy’ Hamas
First, well in my lifetime there was the PLO, then there was – and it still exists, Hezbollah, then Hamas.
I could say much the same about Ireland
If Hamas is destroyed then a successor will be born
Be careful what you wish for, you might get it
What does Hamas have to do to relinquish power?
Hamas / Israel negotiations mediated by Steve Witkoff, USA.
May: An agreement was returned to the opposing sides for final approval.
June: collapse of talks. Relevant point:
“Hamas wanted to have an immediate handover of Gaza’s administration to an independent Palestinian technocratic committee, with full authority over governance and reconstruction, which would begin immediately.
What the U.S. and Israel crafted in return: No mention of Gaza governance and reconstruction. The “day after” may be discussed in future talks, but is not guaranteed.”
Guess whose version *must* be accepted? And who gets painted at the bad guy? Netanyahu *wants* to maintain Hamas in power.
Lots of good points here.
Iran is a much larger country than Iraq, to invade would be madness. To let is dissolve into sectarianism would also be madness.
If we want peace with Iran, stop the sanctions.
I know that there are countries that are quite brutal to their populations, but is the West any better? Just because the West’s Neo-liberal system kills you gently and slowly does not make us morally superior at all.
Sorry.
There is an oft repeated canard, especially on the BBC, that the Iranian regime dictates what women wear, and persecutes gays.
At the risk of being accused of moral equivalence, or whataboutism, or some such, the oldest person in the world currently, is a British woman born in 1909. At that time, she had no prospect of a vote in any UK elections, and if she had been a male homosexual she would have been hounded to her death, like Alan Turing. Growing up she would have been harassed if she wore trousers.
If she was black and in America she would spend nearly half her life waiting for the Jim Crow act to be repealed.
So the Iranian Government is just a few decades behind we the enlightened West, pillar of light, shining beacon on the hill, etc.
60% of university graduates in Iran are women, many is STEM subjects.
When I was a kid, we had a copy of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam -the poet and philosopher. He died in the 12th century CE. H was also a mathematician
As a mathematician, he is most notable for his work on the classification and solution of cubic equations, where he provided a geometric formulation based on the intersection of conics. He also contributed to a deeper understanding of Euclid’s parallel axiom. As an astronomer, he calculated the duration of the solar year with remarkable precision and accuracy, and designed the Jalali calendar, a solar calendar with a very precise 33-year intercalation cycle which provided the basis for the Persian calendar that is still in use after nearly a millennium.
Despite the appalling regime, I find it impossible to subscribe to the idea the Iranians want or would support, the acquiring a nuclear bomb to use it to wipe out Jews.
Jews, along with Christians and Zorasterians, have a few seats reserved in the Parliament.
I agree with the 1st sentiment. Rephrasing your other sentence::
If we want to stop genocide by Israel, start the sanctions.
Iran is not the problem, Israel is.
Israel is the Serbia of the 21st century. A pain in the arse, and in perpetual conflict with neighbours and driven by a messianic belief in a great israel (which WILL lead to greater conflict). It was a mistake from 1948 onwards.
Sanctions & isolation – peaceful and non-violent ways to stop the genocide and regional conflict (extend to Russia by blocking the baltic to all Russian maritime traffic – much of their oil goes that way).
Well said, Mike!
And thanks to Richard for allowing you to tell these truths
It’s time for Faith groups to start coming together and help build a plan. Maybe tweak ChatGPT a bit so that people can write to their Faith leader?
Which of the ChatGPTs
?
I will be using Canva in future, by the way
ChatGPT is trying to censor me…
I asked ChatGPT some questions and it’s given me the following. Maybe it’s worth a try. I fear the formatting of the contacts has gone a bit wrong, but hopefully still makes sense.
Draft Letter for Interfaith Peace Initiative on Iran–Middle East Crisis
> Subject: A Call for Interfaith Leadership in Promoting Peace in the Middle East
Dear [Faith Leader’s Name],
I write as a concerned UK citizen who believes that the world’s faith communities can and should play a more active role in helping to de-escalate the unfolding crisis in the Middle East — particularly in relation to the dangerous tensions between Iran, Israel, and the wider region.
Across the Abrahamic traditions, there exists a deep well of wisdom, compassion, and moral authority. At this moment of mounting hostility, I respectfully urge you and your colleagues across the Jewish, Christian, Muslim, and other faiths to consider initiating or endorsing an interfaith working group or peace forum, dedicated to:
Developing a joint moral and theological appeal for peace, especially toward Iran and regional de-escalation;
Organising interfaith prayers, vigils, and statements of solidarity, including across borders;
Exploring dialogue with respected Twelver Shi’a scholars and other influential faith voices in the region;
Offering a spiritual counterweight to the escalating rhetoric of war.
Recent signs of spiritual diplomacy — including the Vatican’s engagement with Iran and ongoing work by groups such as Religions for Peace, the World Council of Churches, and Coexist House — show that there is appetite and precedent for this approach.
Faiths together could make a real difference — not as politicians or diplomats, but as moral voices that transcend narrow interests. I hope you might consider discussing such an initiative with your colleagues and allies. I would be happy to help in any way I can.
With respect and gratitude,
[Your Name]
[Optional: Town/City]
[Optional: Affiliation or background]
—
Suggested UK Faith Contacts
Faith Leader / Org Role / Relevance Contact
Shaykh Ibrahim Mogra Chair, Religions for Peace UK; prominent Islamic scholar chair@rfpuk.org
Religions for Peace UK Multifaith coalition promoting global peace chair@rfpuk.org
Rabbi Jonathan Wittenberg Senior Masorti Rabbi, experienced in Jewish–Christian–Muslim dialogue Via New North London Synagogue
Julie Siddiqi MBE Muslim activist and co-founder of Nisa-Nashim (Jewish–Muslim network) Via URI UK
Quaker Committee on Christian and Interfaith Relations (QCCIR) Longstanding voice in peacebuilding and interfaith outreach faithrelations@quaker.org.uk
Coexist House UK centre for interfaith education and dialogue Via http://www.coexisthouse.org.uk
Khalili Foundation Promotes interfaith culture and dialogue, esp. Jewish-Muslim Via http://www.khalili.foundation
Now I get you…
The current conflicts in the Middle East are being fought by the West in order to establish an energy corridor from India to Europe, with Israel being used as the “hammer”.
Turkey is next in line, which is why Erdogan has been speaking out against Israel.
Thank you, Richard.
A retired Treasury (international affairs) official turned amateur historian posted this on Naked Capitalism last Saturday:
“I note recent commentary about proposals to Balkanise Iran once the neocons’ ‘regime change’ policy is implemented. Again, there are echoes of past British policy in this. Prior to WW2 (which led to a temporary identification of British, US and Soviet interests – and the concomitant abdication of Reza Shah and the Tripartite Treaty of 1941) there had been British plans to establish a potential autonomous breakaway state in southern Iran, using the Bakhtiari and Qashqai tribes, which would be under British influence. This would then protect the southern oilfields, notably Abadan, and allow them to remain under the direction of the AIOC. Although the British – under Edmund Ironside (later CIGS) – had effectively underwritten Reza Khan’s coup which overthrew the Qajars in 1921 (allowing him to become shah), they had been highly disconcerted by his cancellation of the D’Arcy Concession in 1932, and powerful individuals within the oil sector, notably John Cadman of the AIOC, had promoted schemes for such ‘autonomy’. British paranoia about Soviet penetration of Iran had also amplified the apparent ‘need’ for such a scheme – the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 having been denounced by the Soviets in 1918, and the UK being then seen as the USSR’s chief enemy.
So Carlson’s questioning the hapless Cruz about the ethnic composition of Iran was perhaps inadvertently shrewd. There may be a desire on the part of certain Western (specifically US and Israeli) policymakers to seek to foment disaffection amongst minorities within Iran – notably on the peripheries of the country – against the Persian core, in order to disassemble the country, keep it in a state of perpetual unrest after the fashion of Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc., so as to maintain or even extend US/Israeli paramountcy in the wider region. In this way, such designs are a rinse and repeat of British projects of a century ago. Just as British plans for the Balkanisation of Iran in the inter-war era were a sign of increasing geostrategic weakness, so any neocon designs might be a sign of accelerating US decline. It is perhaps therefore a paradox that strategies designed to extend the term of US imperium beyond its natural shelf life by crude and coercive means may wind up shortening the life of that imperium. That ought to have been the lesson of the Suez fiasco, which was another conspiracy involving Israel. Alas, it appears that the lessons of Suez have still not been learnt by the West.”
I would add the following:
Balkanisation / partition has long been in the western / imperial playbook. Russia and even South Africa* are also targets. *Western Cape.
The former head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, was interviewed by the BBC last week. He wanted action taken against Iran. It was never explained that Sawers is a non-executive director of and adviser to BP, formerly the Anglo-Persian and Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
Blair’s assistant since the late 1980s, Anji Hunter, Mrs Adam Boulton since 2006, left No 10 for BP in 2001. That started an association between BP and Blair that continues to this day. That association is focused on opening doors for BP and fending off decarbonisation. BP is often called Blair Petroleum.
I forgot to add that the former official has looked government papers from the post-war years and, in particular, noted how Churchill felt that the UK had no choice but to be Uncle Sam’s poodle.
Sent this letter to The Times newspaper yesterday; no idea if they published it, I only buy it on Saturdays for the TV listings and to read what the enemy is saying:
In an otherwise thoughtful piece about the difficulty of winning a war against Iran, I note that Max Hastings espouses the ‘mad mullahs’ theory of why Iran shouldn’t have nuclear weapons – that they would immediately seek to destroy Israel (‘Military might won’t solve the Middle East’ 21.6.2025).
I disagree; for many years Iran has sought to contain the expansionist excesses of successive Israeli Governments, largely through proxies such as Hezbollah and more recently the Houthis. This strategy has failed and Israel is now wreaking death and destruction around the region and makes no secret of its desire to expel Palestinians to create a Greater Israel, thus in a sense proving that Iran’s interventions were necessary. A nuclear armed Iran would, in my view greatly restrain Israel in its ambitions and bring a measure of stability which is currently absent.
The notion of the ‘mad mullahs’ is discredited by the facts. Since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, Iran has not sought war with any of its neighbours, it’s only conflict (which it didn’t instigate) being against Iraq, which acted with American support. Meanwhile Israel, ably supported by the USA has been in almost constant conflict with its neighbours, due to its wholly untenable and inhumane treatment of the Palestinan population in the region. Rather than enabling the destruction of all its adversaries, in order to bring peace to the region, Western powers need to prevail on Israel to cease its ethno-supremacist ambitions, through stopping its supply of weapons and if necessary through trade embargoes.
‘
Thank you, Ian.
Yesterday evening, the France 2 (i.e. state-owned) news reported the German chancellor’s remarks that “Israel is doing our dirty work”.
What is the end game? Simply follow the money.
It’s not to do with nuclear weapons per se, Iran had already said it was prepare to negotiate, and the USA ignored them.
The Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program was signed in 2021 where China invests US$400 billion in Iran’s economy in return for discounted oil and other markets. That is to America’s disadvantage, and not how the USA works.
Persuading Iran to change it’s mind could be a long and laborious process. Regime change could be the way forward. It’s what the CIA have done over 50 times in other countries since World War II.
Sources
Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Cooperation_Program
United States involvement in regime change
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
Also worth noting: “Iran claims to have discovered 8.5 million-ton lithium deposit” (Mar 2023)
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/iran-discovers-major-lithium-deposit/?cf-view
Follow the money.
Do we understand the culture of the Middle East well enough to avoid making a bad situation much much worse?
(Answer of course not)
Thank you, Philip. I apologise profusely.
Guardian headline:
“Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi blames Khamenei for the conflict and says he is ready to lead Iran”
Puppet stands by to be installed and screw the country over as his father did.
Looks like it..
“What is the end game in the middle east”
That all depends on what interested parties read & the conclusions they draw.
Specifically: this year there were two very related events (geographically separated by 1400km) +/- identical in action & outcome.
If these events were replicated across USA or Europe, at scale, then you would be looking at a very very different world.
And the events & actions did not involve bombs etc.
Iran will survive the actions of the USA & Israel – it has been around for +2500 years.
What it does in reaction to the attacks is anybody’s guess – but there are a wide range of options. & it has a network.
A couple of points I would make. The crisis in Gaza and Palestinian as a whole has been developing since the late 1800s when Zionists started to earworm the British establishment. Followed closely in the 1920s by our government promising the Jews, with duplicity and ambiguity, a home in Palestine. The fact that the Jews had already had a peaceful, cohabiting home in Palestine as part of a multi religious culture with Moslems and Christians for thousands of years seems to have been irrelevant.
The Palestinians misfortune is that they are strategically and geo-politically unimportant to anyone but the Israelis and the US, but, and it is a big but, Iran is hugely important now to China with its direct East/West railway link, free of all US influence on access to Western markets.
Both China and Russia are determined to be free of neo-liberal dollar hegemony so any attempts by the US to destabilise or hold any influence over Iran looks like it could get very interesting indeed.
Where this wiil all ultimately end is very hard to see at this moment in time, but the reason we are here is beautifully set out in this video written by the scholar and journalist Chris Hedges.
If you have a spare 13 minutes I highly recommend listening.
All empires end this way.
2 links to same video
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/rule-of-idiots-read-by-eunice-wong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLy1BwMWrtw
Thanks, for this evening….
Whilst I appreciate the sentiments of this piece then it is hopelessly naive about the true state of the world and the mindset of the key Western players. There is no such thing as diplomacy any more. None of us knew at the time but the notion of diplomacy and peaceful negotiation died with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Recently I read articles on the Chinese Global Times website and marvel of the naivety of the Chinese government and indeed all of those governments in the BRICS alliance. None of them understand the true nature of the people they are supposedly trying to do deals with and they don’t understand how and why the West has come to think in such terrible ways. All of these countries think there is such a thing as a meaningful international community and I’m sorry but no such thing exists. The UN, the world bank, the IMF and pretty much all so called international organizations have always been tools of Western imperialism and colonialism since 1945. In a very recent essay the economist Michael Hudson explains why all of these fake institutions need to be replaced.
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The need for alternative international organizations
Unsurprisingly, the international community has been unable to prevent the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
The United Nations Security Council is blocked by the United States’ veto, and that of Britain and France, from taking measures against acts of aggression by the United States and its allies.
The United Nations is now seen to have become toothless and irrelevant as a world organization able to enforce international law. (Its situation is much as Stalin remarked regarding Vatican opposition, “How many troops does the Pope have?”)
Just as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund are instruments of U.S. foreign policy and control, so too are many other international organizations which are dominated by the United States and its allies, including (relevantly for today’s crisis in West Asia) the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran has accused of having provided Israel targeting information for its attack on Iranian nuclear scientists and sites.
Breaking free of the U.S. unipolar order requires a full spectrum set of alternative international organizations independent of the United States, NATO, and other client allies.
https://www.geopoliticaleconomy.report/p/michael-hudson-war-iran-us-unipolar-control
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If anyone has not read them then there are two crucial books of Michael Hudson’s which they need to read. The first is ‘Super-Imperialism’ which is better called US financial imperialism or $dollar imperialism in which Hudson explains how post 1945, the colonialist world didn’t end as it was transformed into a new form of US dominated financial colonialism. The other book is Hudson’s 2022 book ‘The Destiny of Civilization’. I have PDF copies of both if anyone wants them. Incidentally MH was one of the founders of MMT.
If anyone needs more information or explanation as to how in terms of philosophy and ideology we have come to think the way we do then please ask questions but I will advise that these are fiendishly complicated issues!!!
I am reading a lot of commentary and little of it includes China.
The ‘belt and road’ link between China and Iran opened on May 25th with the arrival of he first freight train from Xi’an at the Aprin dry port near Tehran. The journey time – 15 days vs 30 days for the maritime route.
China’s belt-and-road is strategic – to link people and markets across the Eurasian landmass reaching the Middle East and then Europe. It is a direct threat to the maritime trading system developed by the Europeans and, more recently, by the US.
And the response of the American Empire? 1) to destabilize Russia and cut off Europe from Russian energy, end Europe’s civil project, and militarize it against the barely credible threat of a Russian hegemon, 2) threaten Canada’s and Greenland’s sovereignty in a ‘Fortress North America’ and 3) destabilize and balkanize the Middle East using America’s aircraft carrier, USS Israel.
Imho, the endgame is to isolate China and balkanize it, too, to perpetuate another century of US imperialism but now by a deeply corrupt financialized Imperium that sucks resources and money from all quarters and reduces civil life for all but the overseers to bare survival.