As the FT has noted this morning:
Netanyahu is good at starting wars, but it's ending them that matters
It is a comment I agree with.
I must especially agree because, as far as I can see, there is no reason for a war against Iran at the moment, except for Netanyahu's desire to:
- Distract attention from Gaza
- Distract attention from his own ongoing political difficulties
- Create a feeling within Israel that he cannot be removed because there are wars in progress.
Iran does not have nuclear weapons.
The US has agreed in military briefings that Iran is not creating risk on these grounds at present.
And as a matter of fact, Israel does not have the means to destroy Iran's nuclear capability, even if it were under threat from it, meaning that it is inherently dependent on US involvement and escalation of this conflict, for its objectives to be achieved.
So, it all comes down to the US position, and no one has a clue what Trump will do. Let's not pretend otherwise. The man is far too unpredictable, and maybe cognitively challenged, to make anything approaching a predictable decision on this.
What should be done? I suggest:
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An immediate ceasefire: Israel must halt its bombing in return for Iran rejoining negotiations. Of course, conditions on verification might be imposed on Iran, but it has agreed to these in the past. The goal must be the end of a policy of forced regime change, which would, as President Macron has suggested today, be too chaotic to manage.
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US mediation via shuttle diplomacy is essential. This is the way that the US can deliver security for Israel. A bombing campaign cannot provide it.
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The U.S. must support talks that also include UAE and Saudi engagement (at least) because both are key to broader security in this area.
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New nuclear proliferation agreements have to be a goal, with Israel being required to take part, which it has refused to do to date. Agreements have to be two-sided.
Is any of that likely? Who knows? I do not claim to do so.
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Your point that Israel needing to be corralled inside a refined nuclear non proliferation regime is very important.
The time of turning a man “international community” blind eye to Israel’s 200 nuclear warheads must now come to an end. Israel must be forced to join the NPT, initially as the sixth nuclear weapons state. But then Article 6 negotiations on verifiable nuclear disarmament must resume forthwith, and Israel must allow full access by IAEA nuclear safeguards inspectors into Dimona subterranean nuclear complex in the Negev desert and must declare any other currently covert secret nuclear sites within Israel.
We agree.
Thank you such a good analysis compared to BBC Today R4 which is superficial and a right wing vox box.
“I can see, there is no reason for a war against Iran at the moment,”
1) The Iranian Mullahs stating they want to kill all jews.
2) Iran funding Hamas and Hezbollah for years to attack Israel.
3) Although it may not have nuclear weapons now Iran’s recent advances mean it has become a “threshold state” — a nation with technical expertise and capacity to weaponise its nuclear programme if it chooses.
Doesn’t it make sense to Israel to knock out its nuclear facility now rather than wait until it does have a bomb? Would you trust the Iranian regime if they had vowed to destroy your people?
1) Have you noticed what Israel has said?
2) Noted. But Netanyahu also funded Hamas. Why are you indifferent to that?
3) This has been the case for 30 years and it has not happened. Have you ever asked yourself why and realised it may be because they have no plans for nuclear weapons?
Thank you, andrew.
Politely, please stop talking BS.
I sometimes watch Press TV and follow the media outside the western MSM. The world is very different from what you appear to follow. The world is also changing.
Iranian officials and clerics are careful to single out zionists, not Jews. There’s a difference. I not so humbly suggest you learn the difference.
Many years ago, it was reported that Ahmadinejad said he wanted to destroy Israel or words to that effect. That story originated with Reuters. As it happens, four friends, three of whom were colleagues, worked and work there. The quartet say that this speech was mistranslated for political reasons, i.e. Ahmadinejad did not say what was attributed to him.
Thank you
Andrew repeats the allegation that Iranian leaders have pledged to destroy Israel’s people.The usual construction put on this threat is Iran wants to “wipe Israel off the map”.This assertion was amplified by the then Iran President Ahmadinejad on 26 October 2005. (as reported next day in the guardian) before a meeting of students opposing Zionism.
He did not mean physically obliterating the cities and infrastructure in Israel, but to change the status of the entity current called Israel into a multicultural new state incorporating Jews, Palestinians, other Arabs, Bedouins, Armenians, and others currently resident. But he does mean dismantling the state of an Israel, as dominated by Jewish interests.
It is a bit more complex than portrayed in shorthand to attack Iran.
Thank you, Dr Lowry.
I put this up on Sunday.
Needs repeating. This is the cautious version.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2007/03/wiped_off_the_map.html
too many repeat the propaganda
The only way to stop war is by removing the means of waging it.
The West has either purposefully or stupidly (both?) armed Israel to the teeth and this war capacity is now in the hands of an unhinged politician, enabled by unhinged nationalists, doing what he can to stop going to jail.
All this is going to do is just breed more enmity, more resentment and more bloodshed from which no one is safe now or in the future.
I’ve been thinking about words recently and all I can think really is of the word ‘tragedy’.
And if they can do that to the Palestinians, then ‘they’ can do that to anyone, at home or abroad.
“Doesn’t it make sense to Israel to knock out its nuclear facility now rather than wait until it does have a bomb? ”
Attacking nuclear facilities is against the Geneva Convention (Article 56. Protocol1) so Israel began this campaign with another war crime. This was pointed out when Russia attacked nuclear sites in Ukraine and has been condemned in the past when Israel attacked sites in Iraq. This time it seems to have been glossed over under the coverall “Israel has the right to self defence” – even when it is the aggressor! It would seem that the Geneva Convention and International Law have simply ceased to exist, for the G7 nations at least.
It’s also a war crime to kill scientists
I’ll see your “Iran funding Hezbollah” and then raise you Israel being funded by the rest of the world to physically take over Palestinian land since the 1967 border agreement after the 6-day war.
Peace either requires absolute defeat of one side (which rarely happens – Iran is not on the verge of unconditional surrender) or some sort of negotiated settlement.
But I have no doubt that the US supports regime change in Iran, and perhaps this situation presents an opportunity to achieve that. Albeit the US has a particularly bad recent record. Mainly because it supports corrupt authoritarian right wing regimes that rapidly become unpopular and are brittle so eventually fall. The son of the shah has popped up. If the history of intervention in Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan is any guide this will not end well.
But in the short term the fall of the Islamic republic might rob Russia of a strategic ally – one of the reasons why as I understand it Ukraine supports Israel’s unprovoked (or at least pre-emptive – although it fairly clear that the bombing has prompted retaliation rather than forestalling immediate hostile action) attack.
Russia attacks Ukraine. Israel attacks most of its neighbours (including quietly increasing the areas of Syria under occupation). So what is the lesson to China and its territorial aspirations? The powerful may do as you wish? And what is the lesson for smaller counties that could be attacked? India and Pakistan show the way – would Iran be attacked now if it already had tested a nuclear bomb?
You ask a question to which you know the answer – which is ‘no’, of course not. The attacks are totally hypocritical at that level.
Andrew, you state “But I have no doubt that the US supports regime change in Iran, and perhaps this situation presents an opportunity to achieve that. Albeit the US has a particularly bad recent record”.
Recent record??? Can you give me a single instance of US regime change having a good effect throughout its 250 year history? And don’t include Germany 1945, that was an allied effort that also included the then USSR.
As Michael Ledeen, defence consultant to then President Reagan stated, “Every 10 years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small, crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business”.
Also as US Major General Smedley Butler said ““I served in all commissioned ranks from second lieutenant to Major General. And during that period I spent most of my time being a high-class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer for capitalism. I suspected I was just part of the racket all the time. Now I am sure of it.”
These two pretty much sum up US policy vis a vis the rest of the world. Iran 2025 is no exception.
Major-General Smedley Butler was also the man who thwarted a right wing coup to oust President FDR because the coup members thought he was too much of a socialist. The coup was led by Prescott Bush, George H W Bush’s father. I believe he was a bit of a fascist. I would recommend that everyone reads Butler’s short book, “War is a Racket”; written in 1935, about America, war and who benefits, and who pays the real price. Nothing has changed.
Your first two recommendations were already in place – a ceasefire and negotiations ongoing – until last Friday when Israel attacked, The attack seemed to be precisely to obviate negotiations.
Netanyahu has said for decades that Iran is on the brink of having a bomb.
You dont need to trust Iran – just ensure they are embedded in an international agreed inspection regime – and lift sanctions.
But with Trump apparently having bouts of incoherence – hell knows what’s going to happen.
Agreed
The war in the Middle East is classic US foreign policy. Israel are more than happy to go along with it, but this follows the CIA playbook. The USA has been involved in dozens of regime changes since the end of the second World War.
Sources:
“Déjà coup: Iran war activates regime change dead-enders” (June 2025).
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-regime-change/
“The Racket: A Rogue Reporter vs The American Empire” by Matt Kennard (2024)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Racket-Rogue-Reporter-American-Empire/dp/1350422711
“United States involvement in regime change”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
“Twelve Step Method to Conduct Regime Change: The Fifth Newsletter” (2019)
https://thetricontinental.org/newsletterissue/twelve-step-method-to-conduct-regime-change-the-fifth-newsletter/
Thanks
US involvement in regime change goes back to 1893 with Hawaii and its eventual annexation in 1898 and it has been instrumental in some 28 other such coups since. The US, with its greed and expansionist instincts is a malevolent force in this world.
Thank you for pointing this out, Ian. The hawks in the Pentagon, and the powers behind the presidential throne have been looking for a way to topple Iran for decades. They have not been shy to say so. The logic of Israel’s attacks is clear. Netanyahu knows he will find support in the US, with or without Trump.
Thank you, Helen.
A purge of US officers opposed to war is going on. The foreign service was purged decades ago.
Yes there are hawks but not all. In 2020 Trump wanted to attack Iran. He was talked out of it by Pompeo ( who believes in the End Times junk theology ) and defence Secretary. His Chief of General Staff was Gen. Milley who went to all commanders of nuclear weapons and told them only to follow his orders. He also telephoned the Head of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to try to assure him that no military operations would take place. To support this he asked ( couldn’t order) the Admiral in charge of the Pacific fleet to cancel scheduled exercises to reassure the Chinese. The Admiral agreed.
Since Trump’s return to power some top brass have been dismissed. Milley’s portrait has been removed from the Pentagon. This is very unpopular with many senior officers.
Many senior officers have studied politics at Masters and Doctorate level and are more liberal than many suppose.
The Colonel may be right about the Foreign service but hundreds of them across the US, EU and UK have spoken out. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68177357
150 in the UK (10th June) have told the Govt they ‘might’ be complicit in war crimes.
Given the way Trump has disregarded Congress and the Constitution, it may be that some take their oath of allegiance seriously enough to act.
It might not be as black and white as some think.
Little is black and white.
Every regime change leader imposed by the Criminal Interference Agency has been a right wing dictator which, I think, says a lot about where the American Establishment’s sympathies lie. Some of these dictators have gone on to do some terrible things; Iran and Indonesia are just two examples.
Given the arc of the conflict so far in Gaza and the West Bank I think that we must face the inevitable consequence that the Palestinians and Palestine are going to be wiped from the face of the earth. The US will force regime change again in Iran, as they did in 1953.
The West will then draw breath as it assuages its complicity, the Palestinians are quietly forgotten and the military industrial complexes across the world, including some Arab nations, digest their profits. Until such time as Israel raises its expansionist eyes once more and the whole thing begins again.
All the humanitarian agencies, along with those of us that retain a shred of humanity, will continue, for a while, to shout into the wind, until we no longer have the breath to do so.
I wish, with all my heart, that it could be different but given the duplicity of corporations and governments across the globe I cannot see how, certainly not in my lifetime.
I was going to plant some more broad beans today….but what’s the point?
Plant them.
You never know.
And you won’t regret it if you do.
What should be done?
For the UK, close the Israeli embassy – for ever. Expulsion of ALL Israeli passport holders, close all Israeli firms in the UK. Terminate all flights to – from Israel. Total economics blockade (= no SodaStream – made by slave labour in Israel). Dual passport holders given choice: UK or Israel. Any & all zionist organisations declared illegal and thus abolished.
Cut all comms with Israel. No more weapons.
None of this will happen because the upper echelons of the Uk government are inflitrated by zionists with the PM the zionist in chief, surrounded by advisers who are likewise zionists.
I would not go that far…..but sanctions are essential, including severe restriction on flights and access to the City.
Thank you and well said, Mike.
It won’t surprise this community that West Brit Morgan McSweeney spent time in a kibbutz. It’s not clear whether this was before or after he teamed up with Mandelson.
Mandelson cultivated some young men for the next iteration of Blairism. McSweeney is supposed to be the organiser and hatchet man for current favourite, Streeting, and alternative, Darren Jones, should Streeting open his big mouth too much.
Hold on a moment Mike!
Some Israeli passport holders in the UK are Palestinians. I’m off to see one of them this week. I’m related to them. They are a 2nd class citizen in Israel, especially since 2018.
Are we expelling them too? Sounds a bit Trumpian?
Palestinians do get shunted around the world an awful lot by Western governments, either directly or indirectly.
As I said, I would not go as far as Mikoe suggests.
I was generalising – there will always be exceptions. The Uk should always be open to victims of opressions regardless of colour or creed.
I’d go further than Mike on the infiltration of the Zionists. Labour has been poisoned all the way down the organisational chain, from Labour Friends of Israel onwards through Labour together and the early machinations of Ruth Smeeth (as was) in particular, and of course the impetus behind the defenestration of Corbyn. This still exists at regional level and many CLPs, let alone trade unions such as Unison. UK government had been captured by Zion for a century, but we are now a post democratic authoritarian shambles, crumbling into a third world belligerent satellite of the warmongers, and it’s down to the current major parties (I include both the Libdems historically and FarageCurrentAccount Ltd).
Richard, can I ask if Iran does not have nuclear weapons and has no plans to do so, why is it enriching uranium as has been widely reported?
It is a major exporter of uranium for use in medicine, apparently. Radiotherapy, etc. And that requires enriched uranium, I am told. I amy be wrong – but that is also plausible.
Enriched uranium is used for nuclear power.
As I understand it, and “understand” might be doing a lot of heavy lifting here, the higher level of enrichment means that future envisaged generations of nuclear reactors become an option for development in Iran. I’m not sure if that is a correct reading of the position, but this is not my area of expertise. The Iranians might be looking at what the position may be in years to come, when they are eventually able to generate electricity for their people, rather than be constrained by the technology that is on the table now. If you were the government of a developing nation and wanted to set up a communications network, you would not opt for a used legacy system. You’d go straight to 5G, or whatever the top of the range is. Essentially, I understand that higher enrichment enables longer refueling cycles and less waste which has to be dealt with at the end of the process. The IAEA comments are interesting. The 60% enrichment figure is ok so far as the NPT is concerned, with reservations, but not the JCPOA. But does Iran still have any obligations under the JCPOA? So, only traditional nuclear armed states (the big five) can enrich Uranium to high levels for military and civilian use and this is not a worry. But if Iran enriches to 60% it it is a worry. That suggests protectionism. We’ll build your reactor for you and put our stuff in it and it will be closely monitored by us. It will also cost you and you won’t have energy independence. I might be wrong. There may be other reasons why this is happening. I wonder what they might be.
Thanks for the reply
Sounds possible but the below (AI generated) says Iran is banned from exports
“While Iran does enrich uranium for its domestic nuclear program, it is not permitted to export it under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA placed limits on Iran’s enrichment activities, including the amount and level of enrichment, and stipulated that any excess enriched uranium would need to be exported or diluted”
“Current Situation:
“Following the US withdrawal and subsequent reimposition of sanctions, Iran has breached some of the JCPOA’s limits on uranium enrichment, including exceeding the agreed-upon enrichment levels and stockpiling more enriched uranium than permitted.
“No Exports:
“Despite these violations, there is no evidence that Iran is currently exporting enriched uranium”
OK, I stand corrected. But what to believe is hard to work out right now.
What we do know is Iran does not have weapons grade material.
Meanwhile at the White House Trump is mulling over important matters and letting the world know his thoughts:
“It is my Great Honor to announce that I will be putting up two beautiful Flag Poles on both sides of the White House, North and South Lawns. It is a GIFT from me of something which was always missing from this magnificent place…. These are the most magnificent poles made – They are tall, tapered, rust proof, rope inside the pole, and of the highest quality.”
It is the height of hypocrisy that the maniacs in charge of unstable, terrorist regimes, e.g., the USA and Israel, are trying to prevent another maniac from an equally unstable, terrorist regime from having what those nutjobs have already got their evil mitts on – namely, nuclear weapons.
There are reportedly 40,000 US military personnel in various countries of the Middle East. Iran has warned that it will train its weapons on US military bases there. Up to 40,000 is a lot of body bags coming home to the USA.
Perhaps Trump should think on that and stick his “Flag Poles” where the sun doesn’t shine.
He can do so, confident in the knowledge that these “Great British Flagpoles” have already been rigorously tested for internal use, on a UK Prime Minister, and are far superior to the “cast iron fiscal rules” that used to keep him upstanding. (It’s the rustproofing you see, because… no, never mind)
“These are the most magnificent poles made – They are tall, tapered, rust proof, rope inside the pole, and of the highest quality.”
Thank you for that, A C Bruce! That made me laugh out loud! Best laugh I’ve had in ages! S’truth, isn’t Trump funny some times? OK he’s a probably demented dictator, but just occasionally you have to laugh at some of his statements. I still wish he’d go away of course. He’s a danger to the world.
In response to Mrs Wallace and Mr Bruce – the flag poles are British (yes we specialise in them) and thus one can console onself that if the great US public grow a pair they may well stick a UK flag pole where the sun doesn’t shine (one lives in hope)
ITN today: “Addressing the developing situation in the Middle East, Sir Keir Starmer chaired an emergency Cobra meeting on Wednesday after returning from the G7.
It is understood that one topic discussed was whether the UK would approve the US using the military base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean or the British base in Cyprus to launch air strikes on Iran.”
So, in addition to sending more RAF planes to the Middle East, Starmer is contemplating further participation in Israel/America’s war on Iran.
This makes a mockery of his calls for “de-escalation”. He is effectively making the UK declare war on Iran. Asking UK personnel to risk their lives in service of a foreign power attacking another foreign power. All without the authority of Parliament, and certainly against the will of UK people.
Insanely, Israel is widely talked of as a UK “ally” Can anyone quote a single thing it has ever done to benefit the UK? It has been causing instability in its region for 75 years. With “friends” like Israel, who needs enemies?
Everything I have seen so far from Starmer demonstrates, IMO, that he is unfit in so many way for the job as PM. Likewise with Reeves as Chancer of the Exchequer. I would go so far as to say they, and Streeting, disgust me.
As for Israel being our friend or ally; Israel is not and never has been our ally. That would be like ‘the special relationship’ with America; complete fiction. Israel has only ever acted in its own interests often at its ‘allies’ expense:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/shayler-was-right-over-bomb-at-israeli-embassy-634154.html
http://britishpalestinepolice.org.uk/polhist44.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8520227.stm
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/israel-embassy-scandal-shai-masot-resigns-threat-take-down-mps-labour-nus-critical-propalestinian-uk-government-minister-politicians-a7524446.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident