I reproduce this letter from The Guardian because I recently took quite a lot of flak here for suggesting that Fiona Hill wrote some very odd arguments in The Guardian concerning potential relations between the UK and Russia in the context of the Strategic Defence Review. It seems I was not alone in thinking this:
Fiona Hill's assessment of the Russian threat to Britain is a classic example of how a seemingly rational argument based on a false premise and scanty evidence can lead to a mad conclusion (Russia is at war with Britain and US is no longer a reliable ally, UK adviser says, 6 June). It is especially alarming that this conclusion was reached by one of the three principal authors of the recent strategic defence review.
The false premise is that Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is the first step to make Russia “a dominant military power in all of Europe”. Evidence that Britain is already under attack is provided by “the poisonings, assassinations, sabotage operations … cyber-attacks and influence operations ... sensors … around critical pipelines, efforts to butcher undersea cables”. It follows that Britain's economy and society must be geared up to resist the Russian menace. Deny the premise, and the argument for a “whole society” mobilisation against Russia collapses. What it reveals is the strength of the warmongering mood of official Britain.
This is not to deny that we have to take precautions against the real danger of a significant US pullout, perhaps amounting to rendering Article 5 of the Nato treaty meaningless, and that the Russians can be quite ruthless in exploiting an advantage if they think they have one. But this is a far cry from proposing, as the strategic defence review does, a national mobilisation in the face of an immediate and pressing Russian threat.
Robert Skidelsky Emeritus professor of political economy, Warwick University,
Richard Balfe Former MEP
Anthony Brenton British ambassador to Russia, 2004-08
Thomas Fazi Author and journalist
Anatol Lieven Senior fellow, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statesmanship
Ian Proud Senior diplomat, British embassy, Moscow, 2014-18
Geoffrey Roberts Professor, University College Cork
Richard Sakwa Emeritus professor of Russian and east European studies, University of Kent
Brigitte GranvilleProfessor of international economics and economic policy, Queen Mary University of London
I would have happily signed that letter.
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I agree wholeheatedly with the content of this letter. What amazes me however, is that The Guardian printed it. As a former devoted reader of that newspaper, I have nothing but contempt for most articles it publishes on politics, economics, foreign affairs etc., these days.
Thank you, John.
Me, too.
One could say the same about Stephen Davies’ article about China in the Telegraph.
Any hope for Russian democracy was immediately killed by “revision number 6”. None of our leaders took Putin seriously at all when they should have. Now they are totally alarmist and over reacting like headless chickens to things that have been known for decades. KGB officer who as a politician turned the Russian state into a secret security organisation on Day 1.
Very much agree Richard – the public is clearly not going along with the ‘we are at war’ rhetoric and the Strategic Review seems hysterical and stupid.
Richard Sakwa has signed the letter – his ‘Lost Peace’ book has long pointed out the missed opportunities to avoid Russia becoming a forever enemy – but of course the military industrial complex always wants an enemy.
There is a good piece in the LRB showing the alarming history of military-technology nexus – including the latest silicon valley tie-up
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n10/laleh-khalili/collective-property-private-control
Thanks
Given the apparent influence of Russian money in our politics, shouldn’t we start by addressing that?
Yes.
Sanctions on Russian money flowing through the City of London but nobody is showing any real interest in them.
In the TV show “The Diplomat”, the Kerri Russell character, US Ambassador to the UK, states to the UK Foreign Secretary, as played by David Gyasi,:
The City is a 24 hour laundromat for dirty Russian money. You need to shut it down.
I worked on doing that for a long time
Nick Shaxson could not have written Treaasure Islands without my work
The decision to promote ourselves as the global concierge and financial launderers to the worlds’ kleptocrats goes all the way back to the humiliation Eisenhower imposed upon us after we disobeyed Washington’s orders on Suez.
The documentary The Spider’s Web was a real eye-opener for me; it’s free and entire on YouTube. Features Prem Sikka who appears to be an old friend of Richard’s, and it’s just jaw-dropping:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYfnkLurLA8
I should gave been in it, and never found the time
It was made by my long term colleague, John Christensen
Thank you, Richard.
The signatories cite Article 5. Let’s see what former NATO official Aurelien has to say about Article 5: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/ukraine-in-nato-would-be-a-disaster.
One should not forget that Hill has been on the payroll of the US war machine’s think tank proxies, one of which is at Harvard and laughably called the “project to strengthen democratic institutions”. Let’s adapt what Gandhi said about western civilisation to western democracy.
I should have added that one of the signatories, Anatol Lieven, is of Baltic German Russian origin. His ancestors fled the revolution.
I noted in the previous blog that one or two of Hill’s points were valid – particularly the one that linked UK security with soclal fairness. The UK gov are taking steps backwards wrt social fairness thus making the UK less secure (not dealt with in the letter).
In the case of Russia: look at what Russia says and what Russia does. The says is evident – neighbours that don’t fit with what Russia wants (in terms of gov) get attacked (Georgia, Ukraine and, arguably Chechnia). All the agreements, treaties, … meaningless.
What it says? Dec 2021, Washington, Putins negotiators demanded a legally binding undertaking from NATO that it would cease all military activity to the east of its 1997 borders. But waht happens if Poland wants to join? Nope – not possible according to Putin because….?????? what? why?
The letter reminds me of the position of some members of the Labour party in the mid-1930s shortly before Atlee took over (& turfed them all out): Their view: SoVU was wonderful . The SovU at the time was: murdering Ukrainains via starvation (now via bombs/misslies) and funding its industrial build up via Magadan gold (read “Siberia” by Colin Thuberon…for the full horror – average life expectancy – 3 months). Russia has changed somewhat – but not that much. Tsars, SovU tsar (Stalin), post-SovU Tsar (& ruler for life) Putin who wants to set the clock back to the “glory days” of the SoVU. Russia self evidently is not at war with the UK in the traditional sense. We thus need to define carefully the hostility “posture” of the two countries and do so in the context of the Scandic and Baltics – who clearly feel threatened. Those that think that “Ukraine is a country far away from the UK with which we have little in common” (I’m paraphrasing) – need to get out more and speak to Ukrainians.
Lastly, I am tired of seeing ghastly dictatorshits throwing their weight around – whilst we do nothing (North Korea, Israel, Myanmar…..). In the case of Ukraine, I support it in a range of ways & will continue to do so. Their fight (against a dictatorshit) is our fight. As for the USMaga – gone. Time the Uk & Europe stood on its own two feet and faced down Russia. We number 500m and are the largest economic block on the planet – with +/- mostly functioning democracies.
I mentioned the Dec 2021 proposals last week.
But decided to keep clear of this topic this time.
Groupthink defined:
https://systemsthinkingalliance.org/unmasking-the-hidden-dangers-and-discovering-strategies-for-collaborative-success-in-todays-world/
Richard, thanks for posting the letter re Fiona Hill. I was shocked at her language but mostly at the Guardian headline that went with it. I thought the article dreadful and irresponsible.
Russia has an aggressive track record and we must not be complacent.
I accept this means more expenditure on armed forces and their suppliers. It also probably means more manpower in the military which must be diverted from our economy.
When I was born my parents would have known that my brother and I would have to do military service. Fortunately this was not needed but maybe it is now.
Perhaps a new social contract is needed between the citizen and the state that includes military service in some form.
Fiona Hill piece also shows the extreme limitations of “slippery slope” thinking and is closely related to the “domino theory” justifying US role in the Vietnam War 60-70 years ago: if it goes commie, the rest of the east will fall like dominoes.
Alan Story
At the risk of “whataboutery”: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/17/china-nuclear-warheads-weapons-stockpile
extract: “A report published on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads, with about 100 per year being added to the stockpile since 2023.”
For use against whom? The USA? Russia? the states that sit to the east of China? Or maybe some gifts to the Iranians.? Good grief we live in a mad world – when 600 nukes are not enough (but enough to cause a global nuclear winter if used). The world is going barmy.
But they aren’t threatening Israel, as yet, so that’s OK, not that I am exonerating Iran, because I will not. .
The journalist Gwynne Dyer appears to agree that the threat from Russia is overstated, as he lays out in this recent article.
https://gwynnedyer.com/2025/war-is-in-the-air/