A six does it

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I am glad that I did not stay up all night waiting for the by-election result in Runcorn and Helsby, because it was only called at 6.00, after several recounts.

Reform has overturned a Labour majority of more than 14,000, winning the seat by just six votes.

It is also clear that Reform is doing well elsewhere. It looks likely to win the Lincolnshire mayoralty election. It is also thought to be on track to control the council of that county, and it is almost certain to win Staffordshire Council, where the vast majority of the Conservative candidates, who almost completely controlled the council until this week, look set to lose their seats.

That said, they did not win the West of England mayoral race, or that in Doncaster, but in both cases did come second. That was quite surprising in the West of England, where the Greens were thought to have a good chance, but fell well behind.

My immediate reactions are sixfold.

The first, and most significant, is that we might be seeing the demise of what has always been claimed to be the most successful political party in the history of democracy. It is the Conservatives who are being decimated, most of all by Reform. In advance of these election results, Kemi Badenoch said that it would be a good result if they kept any seats, and it now looks as if her assessment was not far from being correct. It would seem as if right-wing voters have lost all faith in them. It is hard to see how Badenoch can survive this. It is as hard to see how the Tories do, when we've known, for so long, that their ability to recruit and retain active supporters below the age of 70 has been so limited.

The second lesson is obviously for Labour. The message is unambiguous. It cannot try to beat the far right by moving to the far right, which is what it has been doing. There is no path to electoral success for it there, even if the Tories do collapse. It will always be outdone on that political fringe by the insanity of Reform, at least until the electors of this country have had the chance to witness how truly terrible their ability to govern might be. Unfortunately, an inconsequential mayor and a county council or two are very unlikely to prove that incompetence unless they totally collapse local services.

Third, in many ways, this is going to prove to be a bad night for first-past-the-post. Reform candidates are winning with as little as 25-30% of the votes in many cases. That is far from convincing support. When will we get a democracy that genuinely represents the people of this country? Even in mayoral elections, the first-past-the-post system fails people very badly. In council elections, it is very much worse. If Labour does not wake up now and realise that this is the moment for electoral reform, then they too deserve to be consigned to history.

Fourth, this may well be a bad night for the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and other parties who have traditionally picked up protest votes. Precisely because we have the injustice of the first-past-the-post electoral system imposed upon us, those who wished to block Reform candidates were forced to vote for Labour. Even so, tactical voting failed in Runcorn. It might have saved Labour in Doncaster and the West of England. It will not in Lincolnshire or in Staffordshire, but it might well have done with a proportional representation system. Are we really going to let fascism take control in this country because we will not change the electoral system?

Fifth, though, and perhaps most important of all, the message coming from the electorate is that wherever votes were cast, people are utterly fed up with our mainstream politicians. Their incompetence. Their lack of passion. Their inability to solve problems. Their trite comments. Their refusal to be accountable. Their arrogance. Their contempt for ordinary people and their utter indifference to their needs. All of those things lead to what amounts to a vote for “none of the above“. Some of that was expressed in a vote for Reform. A great many more people simply did not bother to turn out at all.

Our politics is rotten. Neoliberalism is destroying everything of real value in our country, including democracy itself. The writing is on the wall for the Tories. Most Labour MPs will be profoundly worried by the results of these elections, and they should be. But what is really being said is not that people are overwhelmed with enthusiasm for Reform, because the results make it very clear that they are not. Instead, what is clear is that they are utterly fed up with the two-party system, and the incompetent people, totally lacking in ideas and conviction, let alone anything that looks like ability, that this has recruited into these parties.

Sixth, then, is the unfortunate fact that the fate of democracy is now in the hands of the Labour Party and the game player, Morgan McSweeney. Precisely because Labour won with a big majority last July, he, and its leadership, will be deeply reluctant to change the electoral system, even though doing so is the only obvious way that is available to prevent the rise of the far-right within a first-past-the-post electoral system. Will they save democracy, provide us with real choice, reinvigorate politics, and risk the chance that they will win fewer seats as a consequence? Or will they be the gatekeepers for fascism? Of those two, I think the second is much more likely. If that is the case, then last night's result is very bad news, indeed, and the only hope we have is that Trump will make such a mess of the USA that the impact on Reform might be significant. But now, I am clutching at straws. We are in deep trouble, and it is time to admit it.


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