I guess I have to report that the Office for National Statistics reported this at seven this morning (I have corrected their typos and comma usage):
- Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2025, with growth in all main sectors, following January 2025, which showed no growth (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication).
- Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, mainly because of growth in the services sector.
- Monthly services output grew by 0.3% in February 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.1% in January 2025, and grew by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025.
- Production output grew by 1.5% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.5% in January 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication), and grew by 0.7% in the three months to February 2025, with manufacturing output driving the monthly and three-month growths.
- Construction output grew by 0.4% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication), but showed no growth in the three months to February 2025.
I have three responses.
First, really?
Second, how?
Third, who has noticed?
The first question relates, as ever, to the quality of the statistics.
The second relates to the implausibility of this when February showed no sign of such a thing happening.
The third relates to the fact that if this has happened, it is still not enough to persuade Labour is doing anything more than watching over the accidents of nature that create the ebbs and flows of life, over which it appears to have little or no control.
Forgive my cynicism, and the fact that I will be seeking to avoid the nauseous newsround interviews with Labour ministers today, but I am taking this news with a massive pinch of salt.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
0.6% of me is dancing for joy.
The other 99.4% is still fuming.
Thanks for the shiny new link to the glossary!
🙂
I try….
A better question might be, has this growth been of any value?
I suggest probably not
Yes well what can anyone say. I suspect any growth is despite the Governments actions not because of them. I did look around new housing estates in Newquay yesterday – lots of growth but the houses are so people can move to Cornwall, not to meet local need so no use to locals at all.
Sevicing the McSweeney supporters club then – those who conspicuously consume
It’s about time that we all started taking a close look at this character Morgan McSweeney. Just how has he come to yield such influence on the Labour party? He seems another example of one who has risen without trace which leads on to the question how has this happened? Who is behind him? Is he the puppet master or just another puppet? I know that there are a couple of books around that touch upon this point but none seems to get to the heart of this issue. Until we have answers then Labour will continue to slide and the door will be opened wide for Farage and his ilk. Is democracy dying before our eyes or has it already died and we are simply looking at the corpse in its coffin?
In response to Martin – “Get In” the book does a great deal more than “touch on the subject”. McSweeney is examined in reasonable detail. He is an irish Tory. Did a couple of Ok things in local gov and Starmer is his “project”.
He got Starmer elected to lead LINO and elected to lead the country. Whilst Mr S’ might have a good undestanding of LINO politics and local politics – it all ends there. There is no idea (big or little), no plan (ditto), no strategy, no vision-thingy. Just power, getting it, & then using it to further the personal interests of those in ministerial positions (Reeves paying £20bn to bankers is indicative of this). Quite what McSweeney gets out of this is anybody’s guess – power the ultimate aphrodisiac? As for us peasants – we don’t count and never have.
PS: he also stuffed “The Canary” using anti-semitism accusations.
A great deal to agree with.
Some McSweeney titbits relating to dark, very dark doings relating to The Canary, Corbyn, and anti-you-know-whatism, and reshaping the Labour Party.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22Morgan+McSweeney%22+%2B+%22The+Canary%22&t=fpas&ia=web
Any margins of error relating to these figures?
If so, why not publicise them too?
P. S. In any case I shall celebrate by having 0.5% more cream on my breakfast porridge!
🙂
I shall join in your celebration but, if you don’t mind, Mr Trevethan, I’ll celebrate the Brexit dividend too, and add minus 4.5% cream to my porridge.
Later revisions are typically 0.0, 0.1 or 0.2%
I’ve never seen a revision larger than that.
Dick Moore
Economist and Speculator
On 0.5% a o,2% revision is a 40 error
This data is bnot reliable
And 10% of GDP is, anyway, just made up.
Speaking as a statistician, the obsession with monthly GDP by politicians and MSM (most of whom I suspect have no idea what it really is or how it is calculated) is a massive irritation. GDP is a function of so many estimates
(guesstimates) it is a work of fiction. And don’t get me started on some of the harmful things it includes and whether “growth” in these is ever a good thing!
I agree with all that
Yes I have actually.
I have seen growth in my utility and water bills.
I have seen our housing lists grow bigger.
I’ve seen my train ticket go up about £2 for a day return and £3.50 for a weekly travel card.
That’s what Labour means by growth – growth by rentierism and other exploitation.
That could be it…of course
I feel 0.6% better on this news, but to make sure it keeps moving in the right direction I had 99.4% more prunes with my breakfast.
Don’t go too far this morning then
Even the Guardian can’t resist the word-salad
“The increase in gross domestic product in February was five times larger than the 0.1% that a poll of City economists had forecast, while January’s figure of a modest fall of 0.1% was revised up to 0.0% growth.”
Five times higher than City economists forecast. Square root of diddly squat indeed !
Correct
It helps to fill the News slots – for a day fussing over 0.5% +/- 0.4% . Part of the distraction strategy of our Ministry of Truth media.
Thank you to Martin, above.
I can help answer that.
McSweeney is a protege of Mandelson, the organiser and hatchet man they deploy for their proxy leadership candidates. He was imposed on Starmer by the Blair and Mandelson gang and will pave the way for the eventual succession of Streeting or Jones.
His family and he are from Cork and Fine Gael. Right wing. They despise the left.
There are many like him around the west who rise without trace and are beholden to puppet masters. On the continent, there’s Macron. In the US, there were Clinton and Obama. However, if one paid attention to the brief appearances by them when young, the signs of, as we say in French, “ascension fulgurante”, were there.
Glacial!
Still waiting for the post Brexit Bounce, any one felt it?
You never will
“Forgive my cynicism…… ”
Easily. As Ambrose Bierce observed, ‘A cynic is a person whose faulty vision allows him to see things as they really are rather than as they ought to be……” Or words to that effect. 🙂
(Yes. I’m still here but with very little to say.)
Good to hear from you
Yes I’ve noticed the growth in the service sector, Turkish barbers, nail bars, deliveroo riders……..
Some of those are, I am afraid, money laundering fronts.
Once launderettes were used for this. Hence money laundering.