Trump's claim that he wishes Canada to be the 51st state of the USA has to be taken seriously, but what it threatens is a new era of brutal, anti-democratic, imperialism. How are we going to react to that?
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Can Canada avoid Trump? That's a pretty important question right now. Not just if you are Canadian, but also if you happen to be living in Greenland or somewhere near the Panama Canal or in any other territory that at some time Trump, and let's be honest, his friend Putin, might think that they desire to be part of their evil empires, which I think is a fair description of what the USA and Russia now look to be.
What is the threat to Canada? Look, it's almost impossible to believe that we have to ask that question because why on earth is Canada under threat? The country of Canada has existed since 1867. It was created by a British Act of Parliament in that year, which sounds sort of absurd except that's how the world was divided up in those days.
And since then, its borders have been pretty clear and unambiguous.
So, too has its form of government, although that evolved so that it became a self-governing country in the 1930s, along with many other such similar states inside the British Empire as it then was, and it has been an effective democracy since then, albeit that it keeps King Charles as its head of state. It is then a mature democracy working within established borders, but which Trump now likes to call the 51st state of the USA.
That in itself is also absurd. There are 10 provinces in Canada, all of which could be states in their own right, and there are another three territories on top of that, which may not be states in their own rights, but frankly some of them are almost as big as some of the micro-states that exist in the USA. There are, after all, nearly 42 million people in Canada. This is no small country.
It's also a country with a diverse ethnicity. A quarter of those people speak French, and about 20% of all people in Canada speak French as their first language. So it has not got ethnic alignment with the USA, but nor has it got a social alignment in terms of values with the USA. For example, big business dominates healthcare in the USA. In Canada, big business has nothing to do with healthcare as such because healthcare is a right, rather like it is in the UK. So, the point is that this is a country which is not in sympathy with the USA. But Donald Trump wants it.
Why does he want it? Because of its resources. Let's be clear why he wants it. He wants it because it is wealthy, because it has oil, because it has gas, because it has timber, because it has water, and it has hydro power as well, all of those things mean that this is a rich source of supplies to the USA, and it obviously has industry and strong universities and other things as well.
Trump wants to make it American because he wants to expand his empire because he sees the opportunity to make money out of this. That's why people have always wanted to expand empire. It's never been for any other reason at all, the same as there's never really been any other reason for war. It's always been about economics and Trump believes that the economy of the USA will be enhanced if he has power over Canada, just as he thinks it will be enhanced if he has power over Greenland and just as he thinks it'll be enhanced if he has power over the Panama Canal. And just by the way, as he thinks his economy will be enhanced if he abandons Ukraine.
The point is simple. Trump is being transactional, there is nothing else to it.
Trump doesn't understand what it might mean to be Canadian because he doesn't really understand what it means to be American.
He doesn't even really seem to understand what it is to be human, to be blunt. He simply reduces everything to the condition of being a transaction. To be blunt, it's all about money. So, this is a man who does not really act in accordance with normal human emotions that most people understand. And what he most certainly won't understand is the idea that Canadians have, that they are most definitely not American.
Now there are lots of issues that arise from this claim by Trump.
The first one is with regard to the status of NATO, because Canada is a NATO country. It's also a member of the G7. So, we would have a superpower inside the G7 and NATO trying to take over another country within both those organisations. Now, that is extraordinary beyond the imagination until a few weeks ago.
What will the other states within those organisations do as a consequence? They are bound under Article 5 of NATO to come to the defence of Canada.
Will they?
Can they?
Should they?
What will happen if Trump decides to send his troops quite literally over the border into Canada, which he could do and numerically, he would of course win, but would that create a stable situation? I really doubt it.
What would his doing that do for relationships between the US and the UK? We're in the absurd situation at present that the UK's prime Minister, Keir Starmer,went to see Trump and gave him an invitation from King Charles to come on a state visit to the UK, and yet Trump is threatening to invade a country of which King Charles is king.
How does that make sense? The UK's primary duty is to Canada, because it's a member of the Commonwealth and has long-term associations with this country, not least via the royal family.
We have a duty to defend it.
We have that duty under NATO.
And yet we have Starmer saying the US is our friend. It clearly isn't.
And what would he say to the rest of the world if the US thought it could just literally take over Canada, which it appears that Trump thinks he can, and which it is very obvious that the brand new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, formerly governor of the Bank of England, thinks is a very serious threat, or he would not have spent so much time addressing it during his first speech to his own political party when they elected him its leader.
My point is Canada is a sort of touchstone for where we are going with regard to world political economy.
Political economy is all about how power is used to claim economic control.
The USA is trying to claim the economic power of Canada from its own people to vest it in the billionaires who will no doubt benefit if Trump were to seize that country and make it part of the USA.
There is, therefore, in this threat to Canada, the whole question of the future of the way in which the world itself will be organised when it comes to political economy.
Will brute force and imperialism rule as once it did?
Or will democracy survive?
Canada is extremely important when it comes to the future of just about everyone as a result.
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It seems there might be a long term plan being implemented that originated in Russia and has morphed into “Give me Greenland, Panama, and Canada. You can get Ukraine, the Baltics, and Eastern Europe. He can get Taiwan and the China Sea.”
https://www.facebook.com/share/193cVENNMi/?mibextid=wwXIfr
It feels that way
Perhaps Carney should invite the US to become a province of Canada instead.
My starter for ten:
Let’s stop using the word “transactional”. The things Trump intends to do – and make no mistake, he has every intention of doing them – are not transactions. They are not, for example, purchases of an item which is for sale. The things he wants are not for sale, and in any case he has no intention of paying.
Trump intends to grab Canada and Greenland by force. Either by economic force, or by military force. Those are not transactions. They are illegal land grabs, and as such are no different from Israel’s impending annexation of Gaza and the West Bank.
Only my opinion, obvs.
Very good point
I prefer to describe Trump’s thinking as more about mergers and acquisitions. Which in his mind includes hostile takeovers.
Trump sees Canada, for example, as one of America’s ’major suppliers’. In his mind it makes sense to add their profit to his bottom line. Like so many mergers and acquisitions he takes no account of cultural differences between the two parties, which is a common reason for commercial connections to fail too.
If invaded, Canada will fight back just has Ukraine has done, and US will have embarked on yet another unwinnable war. I think it is high time that to underline that the rest of NATO made it clear that if Canada (or any other member) is attacked they will immediately come to its aid.
I prefer to think of it as asset stripping.
One analysis I have seen of the British Empire was that it was a net loss to the UK Economy.
The US Military should also be well aware of the cost of taking and attempting to hold territory where the locals dont want you and having to attempt to take and secure land where you end up with long and vulnerable supply routes – look at Afghanistan and successive invasions of Russia
Look at Viet Nam too, where locals only had machine guns and light weapons to fight off the US invader. And they won.
Thank you, Richard.
Starmer’s triangulation, being quoted on the BBC breakfast news today, has led to some Canadians, not just francophones, questioning links with the UK, not just the monarchy.
Yesterday evening, I dined with a friend, a British diplomat, visiting from South Africa. She reports that no white farmer has taken up the offer from Trump and Musk. There’s interest from farm labour. There’s also a feeling that the US, so not just Trump, is interested in SA’s mineral wealth and strategic position.
BTW, she also reports the UK making a big push to sell arms around the world, hoping that this will reboot the economy and provide economies of scale.
All so predictable
All so Starmer
Nicely prepping for WW3
He really has travelled a hell of a way from the “human rights “ lawyer. Did it ever last more than 1 case?
Well Richard, given that Canada is part of the Commonwealth and has old big ears as it’s monarch same as we do, that the UK would of course send troops there to defend it, ‘cough, cough’.
And I expect all the Brexiters and flag shaggers who assured us that the Commonwealth was where our real friends were unlike those vile Europeans, will be the first in queue to defend a fellow Commonwealth country from attack, won’t they?
I look forward to the calls from Farage, Badenoch, the DM, Telegraph etc for the UK to rush to the defence of Canada if the lunatic Trump actually orders the US to attack it. Don’t you?
They’ll all be lining up…..right behind Trump. I guarantee it.
I hope we will offer a Canadian refugee scheme to those threatened by the new regime. We will need to do so. And i woiuld remind anyone objecting that they fought with and for us in WW2.
Good post because my worry is that the world will sleep walk into letting this happen.
Also, I wonder who in Canada wants it to happen? Are Canadian millionaires/billionaires more ethical?
I bet those American citizens on the border who nip into Canada for free healthcare because of their own costly U.S. system will be a bit put out.
Buyer’s remorse might become as big a problem for the U.S. as fentanyl – one hopes. But when the next election comes around – what then? That is all I can think of for now to be honest. How will that go?
American expansionism seems to have zeroed back into the the american continent by focussing North now as the West has been won. Going East is OK as it seems to have things wrapped up the UK under a false Labour government, and it has Europe in tizz, the result of which are still uncertain, but if the ordo/neo-libs scum/deep agents at the ECB have their way, the defence spending will be paid for in cuts to services which means vacuums will be created for U.S. based investors to exploit.
Trump has two choices I think. Firstly he could use military force and annex Canada or secondly, he – or rather his backers – can help destabilize the country from within in the long run (Canucks for Trump!), bringing forth enmities – a French/English speaking split, the Ultra Right in Canada – and so forth. All nations have skeletons in their cupboards, sticky issues that will not go away, stuff the fascists like Trump and his backers will root out and exploit. To be a fly on the wall of the White House now and hear Trumps fantastical ideas would certainly be something!
Whatever happens, I think that it will be driven by the same spirit that helped create America in the first place, this strange country that sees itself as the land of the free, an apostle of freedom, but was created out of the freedom it denied to those who were already there or those it decided it was going to ride on the backs of to get (frankly) rich (black slaves – who after Reagan, became multi cultural slaves, black white, latino – his biggest contribution to American society).
This – Trump – is the American way of life. It is based on the continuous expropriation of other peoples stuff, fronted by a myth (freedom).
Because this freedom is a lot more exclusive than we are led to believe. It is the freedom that financially resourced power appoints to itself.
My only hope really is that Trump destroys – reifies – this American myth.
Any state that starts off based on a myth is bound to come to grief at some point in history. It has happened to England already, the Nazis were brought down by it, the USSR.
Perhaps we are now witnessing the death of America? Perhaps this is what it looks like?
Your conclusion may well be right – it’s just not apparent as yet
Apparent to who is the next question?
One thing to consider. Does Trump’s expansionist desire actually fit in with what many on the MAGA side actually want?
Trump is expansionist, while many MAGA are more isolationist. They don’t like the US being involved in foreign adventures, or defending others. They are homeboys and girls. America first, in a sort of rose-tinted spectacles view of the past type of way.
Trump’s aims, whether it is Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal, and yes, the ludicrous Riviera of the Middle East idea for Gaza, can only, ultimately, be achieved with boots on the ground. The US military, imposing power over sovereign nations and people.
I doubt that will go down well even with many MAGA supporters. I doubt it has much support at all amongst the American people as a whole.
Add in Trump, the defender of dictators, and hater of democracy.
He wasn’t elected to do any of this.
He will have even less support once the body bags of dead American soldiers return from conflicts for which there is no reason to be fighting, other than Trump’s economic fascism.
And I doubt the US military will want it either. The idea of potentially fighting against traditional, long-standing allies, won’t sit well with many in the military, especially as none of them are attacking the USA. Can you imagine them wanting to occupy the Gaza Strip? It would make Afghanistan look like a tea party.
I would imagine that any opposition to Trump in the USA would have to show itself, if he resorted to using the military. They would need to stand up and be counted. I can see a potential situation where Trump, and the likes of Vance, Musk, etc, how can I put it, would be relieved of their duties. On the grounds of what they are doing is unconstitutional.
The Bannon / Musk split is looming
It will be ugly. The Reform storm is a sideshow compared to what will happen.
Given most Canadian don’t want to be part of Mangoland how will this play out? Invasion? Big place Canada. Will the US military go along with this? Will Mango use Mango-militias? Or is this just yet another puff-ball floated by the weak-egoed imbecile to keep attention on him (shades of the blonde buffon in the UK …me me me me me).
I reckon it’s all piss&wind by mango.
Trudeau answers the question: “Does the Canadian government believe these tariffs from Donald Trump is an act of war from the US?”
Whatever you may think of Trudeau, his answer shows what real statesmanship looks like.
https://youtube.com/shorts/J5vp6DdBRoA?si=V3Ac50tvt-9tDp2e
The Canadian civilian population is surprisingly well armed and exceedingly patriotic, so it could turn interesting.
When I was in school in Canada in the 1970’s, there was a book called Ultimatum by Richard Rohmer about the invasion of Canada by the US in order to get its mineral wealth.
It had the UK going to Canada’s aid which, even at the time, I said was highly unlikely!
With Starmer, much more so
I don’t think Trump has enough control over the military yet to contemplate an invasion of Canada, nor is the US as economically secure as they think they are to use economic pressure. Canada can trade with the EU, China, and South America, and could devastate the US tech industry by repealing patent agreements regarding US tech. Also, many generals despise Trump, and he would have to purge a lot of talent from the military to control it. It’s doable, but it would diminish capability. Many personnel would also leave, further draining resources. A draft would be unpopular and would lead to a lot of unmotivated soldiers being sent into combat with a near-peer enemy, with modern weapons, on their soil, and with an intimate understanding of American tactics and capabilities. America has not fought a near-peer military since Iraq in 1991, and it was Soviet military doctrine and technology that hampered the Iraqis back then. Canada would be a different beast, and US soldiers would be fighting people they have trained with, and who are just like them. They would get a bloody nose invading Canada, and would then have to suppress a population of 40 million people. If just 1% resisted, that’s 400,000 insurgents to deal with, with a vast territory in which they can disperse.
Getting into more unbelievable territory, (but hey, why not?) there is the potential for Chinese involvement. There are 1.7 million people of Chinese origin in Canada, and the country is big enough that China could land military support by air or sea if it saw sufficient geopolitical gain. They could also go for Taiwan, cut off American access to microchips, and blockade Japan while the US Navy is busy blockading Canada’s enormous coasts. Alaska could be at risk, the EU could step in, economically or militarily, or Starmer could grow a spine. American troops in EU countries, if not recalled home, could be detained. In conclusion, if America invaded Canada, it would be an unbelievable military blunder. But given the lack of brain cells on display in the White House, it’s entirely possible.
You have imagination.
Yes, I may have gotten a bit excited there. The main point I should have stuck to is that, at least in military terms, the biggest barrier to invading Canada would be the US military itself. As for economic pressure, America may end up overplaying its hand and isolating itself. They really are more vulnerable than Trump and his oligarchs and tech bros think.
I was not complaining
You make very valid points. US ability to wage major wars on multiple fronts is seriously open to question. Specially if troops (and population) are uncommitted to the war(s) they are fighting and prone to mutiny / rebellion. The biggest problem might however be in the High Command: just having the mental focus to manage so many fronts and their competing demands.
The organisation of the world into self-governing sovereign nation states only arose in the 20th century, becoming fully formalised post WWII with the establishment of the UN. Prior to that we had empires, who fought or traded with each other for control of territories. (Very abridged thumbnail sketch, apologies to historians!)
We are now in the situation where the world’s strongmen leaders seem determined to return to the world of empires. This has clearly been the goal of Putin and Xi since coming to power, and now appears to be Trump’s as well. With the world’s most powerful and reckless leaders on this path, will the experiment with nation states turn out to be a curious historical anomaly? Or can Europe, maybe with support from parts of Africa and South America, push back hard enough?
Starmer and his government is becoming a clear and present danger to the UK, as he successfully became to the party formerly known as ‘Labour’.
The psychopathology of Trump and his oligarchs is well-analysed from a medical and scientific perspective in Dan Goyal’s Substack “The Antidote”, eg this post and others before and after: https://open.substack.com/pub/dangoyal/p/the-motivation-behind-the-oligarchs
Well worth reading.
Replying to MarP – You make excellent points about why MAGA people might react to Trump’s shenanigans. However, I don’t think Trump cares much about what his MAGA supporters think any more.
He can’t run again …unless he pulls rabbits out of the hat and changes all the rules…and I don’t expect he actually wants to. As it is, he can go out in a blaze of glory in 2028, safe from being prosecuted for his crimes, etc. He doesn’t have to fine-tune what his supporters might think any more, because—the 2026 congressional elections apart—he doesn’t need their votes any more. Take away their jobs, wreck their sources of income, wipe out their Social Security, their Medicare and Medicade, their retirement funds, etc etc. Doesn’t matter any more. They are all Losers; let them cry.
I think recklessness and vandalism are Trump’s main attributes now. He’s been given the keys to the Cadillac, and he’s going for a spin, and he doesn’t care where he ends up or who he mows down. He’s having fun.
Many Americans are our friends, family, and neighbours. Having said that, an American bearing arms with an intent to invade my country, Canada, would be a hostile enemy alien. I am a senior citizen, but in good physical shape. I don’t like guns, but I will learn to use them if I must. Life without our Canadian freedoms under the corrupt, fascist leader of a morally decadent country would not be tolerable. French and English Canadians will fight together to preserve our unique cultures and mutually beneficial societies here. Vive le Canada!
I’m with Canada.
This video made me weep and increase my support for all my friends, family and colleagues in Canada.
https://vimeo.com/1056619122?share=copy
Thanks
To return to the question originally proposed, of course Canada can avoid Trump – simply call his bluff.
With 13 provinces and territories, each enjoying greater autonomy than do American states, there is no reason for Canadians to even consider becoming the fifty-first U.S. state.
However, they might consider a counter proposal – that they become the fifty-first through sixty-third states.
That might shut the orange muppet up.
Why would they want to be that?
I’m no fan of DT but what if he’s actually got some sense of middle term strategy? We buy into his unhinged ideas, so firmly so that in the end when a disastrous financial deal is proposed we agree because at least its not war. He gets what he wants, energy, lumber, prices, whatever he threatened to get for free, for cheaper than he ever dreamed. Because we bought into the fear. That’s what bullies do.