There are precedents for dictators making friendships of convenience until they decide to fall out, when the human cost of that happening is horrendous. Is that possible in the case of Putin and Trump?
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This is the transcript:
Are Putin and Trump really friends? It's an important question to ask because frankly, I seriously doubt it, and I also don't trust relationships between people who act as dictators, which is what Putin undoubtedly is, and which is what I think Trump wants to be, which is why he admires Putin so greatly.
Let me explain why I don't trust those relationships and why when unlikely power pacts are created, they are probably bad news for the rest of the world.
The best example of what I'm talking about is a power pact that was created in August, 1939. It was between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia as it then was, and it was called the Ribbentrop - Molotov Pact.
It was signed so that Germany could be sure that Russia would not react if Germany invaded Poland, which it did within days of this pact being agreed. They wanted Russia to be neutral for the time being, and so they agreed to carve up some territory in Eastern Europe, and a so-called non-aggression pact, which meant that Russia stood back whilst Germany tried to claim most of Poland for itself, with Russia claiming a part as well.
Now how long did that pact last? Two years. In 1941 we all know that Hitler turned on Soviet Russia and opened up an Eastern front, which did of course eventually lead to the collapse of the Nazi regime, but on the way, to the loss of tens of millions of lives. The pact between two power hungry people, Hitler and Stalin, was ultimately extraordinarily costly to the people of the countries that they governed and many others as well.
I don't see how the relationship between Putin and Trump is one that is sustainable. There are a number of reasons for saying that.
Let's be clear. It doesn't seem as though Trump is capable of sustaining a relationship with anyone. Just look at the people who served him during his first term in office. Most of them lasted little more than a year in the post to which they were appointed. Many of them are now bitter and angry about the way in which he treated them. He treats them as enemies. He's withdrawn the security for some of them quite deliberately so that he can expose them to risk for the actions they took on his behalf during the course of his first term of office. Trump is not a reliable friend.
I very much doubt in fact that he actually knows what friendship means because as he says, everything is to him a deal and there is no such thing as human empathy that even comes remotely close to his psyche.
Where is Putin? Well, probably very much in the same position. Having been the effective dictator of Russia for over 20 years, this man is so far removed from the people around him because of the imbalance of power between him and everybody else in Russia that people will live in fear of him, and that's not surprising. A lot of his former advisors appear to have had significant difficulty when they come near windows of late, and accidentally fall out of them, which is a strange coincidence. He is very clearly a man who is only concerned about his own hold on power.
These two psychopaths - and it's very hard to describe them as anything else - are unlikely buddies.
So, we have to ask the question, why suddenly is Trump aligning the USA with its long-term natural enemy? Is that because Trump has, as some suggest, been a Russian agent for decades? When Andrew Marr, who is an established journalist, discusses that possibility in real seriousness on LBC, as he has done very recently, we have to consider the possibility, and I think it's a perfectly tenable suggestion that during the course of his visits to Russia, which he made in the 1980s and 1990s, Russia created what is called kompromat on him that has been used to basically bribe Trump into being a Russian agent ever since.
There are good reasons to think that he might have compromised the 2016 election with Russian assistance.
There are good reasons to think he might be doing the same now, but his behavior at this moment is what gives the clearest indication that in fact, he lives in fear of Putin more than anything else, and this is not then a relationship of equals.
This is a relationship of Trump having to do what he is told to keep his master happy. If that is what is going on here, we are in a deeply unstable situation. But my fear is that when Trump realises that he is actually unable to hold onto power because of the consequences of this relationship and how it will unfold over the next year or so, we end up with a very ugly situation, including the possibility that these two powers will fall out with all that that might lead to.
I hate to think about the possibility of war between the two because they are, of course, the two global nuclear superpowers and we would all suffer in that. And the two leaders are actually amongst the very few people who are mad enough to commit what has been called madness in the form of Mutually Assured Destruction - MAD for short.
So, we are in an exceptionally dangerous position because they have aligned for reasons that we do not understand, which make no sense, and which do suggest compromise in the sense of Trump being a Russian agent and there is risk that they will fall out.
The situation that we have to ask about is in that case, how long will this friendship last?
How stable is it and what will happen when this relationship fails?
Will it simply be that the USA walks away into isolation?
Might it be that the USA could in fact have a reverse coup and democracy in the US form - in which there are weaknesses - could be restored?
Could it be that actually there could be a peace despite the falling out, or do we face a real threat, which is war between the USA and Russia with Europe being the playground in which it is literally enacted, as of course has been the case in the past?
I genuinely don't know the answers to these questions. I put them on the table for good reason, because the current relationship between Trump and Putin is literally inexplicable without there being some other unknown factor, which some suggest to be Trump's Russian agency to explain what is going on.
But even that doesn't enable us to fully understand what might happen if that situation fails, as the agreement between Hitler and Stalin did in 1941. That's where the biggest risk is, and I don't know what to do about it. I don't know at the moment what to provide as answers with regard to the possibilities, but if there is a defence risk we need to consider, this is what our politicians should be talking about.
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I used to think that getting rid of Trump (whether by his death, assassination or impeachment) wouldn’t do much good, because the likes of Vance are waiting in the wings to pick up the torch. I’m changing my mind; the personal connection with Putin and Russia will almost certainly end with Trump’s downfall and the world will be much safer as a result.
There could be two other motivations:
1. That Trump understands nationalism, and why Putin wants to protect ethnic Russians who fell on the wrong side of the soviet republics borders from fascism being imposed on them
2. That Trump being a businessman can point the obvious. And a war along a line of separation which has barely moved in a year with almost no partizan activity on either side is an obvious line for a truce and to bring this senseless death to an end.
And maybe not, too
Do I credit him with any such intelligence? No….
Nobody was trying to impose fascism on the Russians who happened to end up in Ukraine. That’s a Kremlin talking point. In fact, Ukraine has the smallest right wing/nationalist party in Europe according to a survey I saw last year. Ukraine is recognised as ‘young democracy’, and has a president and the people around him who were trying hard to advance that project – until Putin came calling, because he realised that having a functioning democracy on his doorstep – as opposed to the dictatorship in Belarus – might make Russians wonder why they couldn’t have the same.
And Trump the business man? Get real. He’s a failed business man and corrupt, as numerous court cases have determined (and many more would have had he not had the money to make sure they were quashed). And let’s not forget his slimy friendship with Epstein – who he claims he never knew – despite pictures and witnesses to the contrary. And his never ending ability to lie about anything and everything.
And one final thing. There’s plenty of partizan activity behind the line of contact. In fact, various Ukrainians who have been working with the Russians in Donbas and Luhansk are regularly assassinated – usually by their car blowing up. But then Trump and his cronies wouldn’t want too many people knowing that, would they.
Why Mearsheimer is wrong is the title of this youtube.
As a former Finnish Minister who also worked in the EU and met Putin, he is worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlB-pRqdyBg&t=278s
I will watch it
“Putin wants to protect ethnic Russians who fell on the wrong side of the soviet republics borders from fascism being imposed on them”.
That only works if one accepts that a large number of people in e.g. Donbass wanted to stay in Russia. However, the percentage of people eligible to vote & who voted for independence was north of 65% in ALL regions. Percentage of no votes in the eastern regions, 7,10,12, 13. So it looks to me that the vast majority of Russian speakers in those regions wanted to be part of Ukraine. The only thing that was “imposed” on them was democracy (something lacking in Ruzzia). You could march around Maidan in Kyiv with a plackard saying “Zelensky is an idiot” – people would probably disagree & that would be it. Try that in Red Square with “Putin is an idiot”.
As for the Trump – Putin love triangle. It is transactional, the Ruzzians know their man inside out & know exactly which buttons to press. The Ruzzians have kompromat on Mango – I doubt if they need to use it – given he is so easy to manipulate. The Mitrovkin archive book – in the closing pages outlines how the USSR re-orientated to suborning Western businessmen. The process was well in place by the mid-1980s – nicely in time for Mango-in-Moscow.
As for the realtionship USA & UK + EU others have profiled the myriad of institutions designed to groom UK & EU politicos into a “USA is always our friend” mindset. The problem with this is now self evident. The UK & EU would do well to close any and all such institutions & declare “Independence” from the USA. Time has come for Europe to stand on its own two feet.
Thanks for putting those stats up, Mike. I saw them a while ago and if I recall correctly the only region in Ukraine that voted more than 50% for joining Russia was Crimea (56% I seem to recall). So even there not an overwhelming majority.
Agree with all your other points, too. Not sure if you follow her, but Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor is invaluable for keeping abreast of the latest propaganda and other mis and disinformation from Putin and his cronies. I think people in the UK would be shocked at how often this country (and Paris, Berlin, etc) is threatened with a nuclear strike for backing Ukraine. And it goes without saying that the stooges on Russian TV (state controlled so rammed down the necks of all Russians) claim to ready to take back the Baltic states and Poland. https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews
Richard: if you want to see what the Russian’s think of Putin and Trump’s relationship watch a few of the clips from Julia’s channel. Very insightful (and I can assure you, Trump isn’t the boss).
Thanks
If Trump is compromised as you suggest – and I strongly suggest that he isnt the only one either in the US or the UK why hasn’t the information been released or better still legal proceedings started against him?
I can imagine that The Security Services dont have the evidence so why no action? If nothing else they could forget a sensitive file in a Fleet Street pub.
“I can imagine that The Security Services dont have the evidence”.
The KGB & latterly the FSB has the evidence wrt to Mango. Why would they give it to MI6?
What MI6 has for sure is the Mitrovkin archive (Mr M was THE Archivist for the KGB). We know, for sure that both agencies targeted western bussiness men &, we know that that was part of the Dresden operation when Putin was there in the 1980s. “Know” in this sense is “we know for sure”. How do I know – becuase I knew one of the main movers & shakers for the East German semiconductor operation (& I question if he was ever properly debriefed). How did I know him? IWell that is a story for other ears. In the unlikely event that SIS reads this – Richard knows where to contact me.
With the exception of the east german semiconductor guy – the security services would have know exactly what was going on. Problem. Loads of western businessmen – which ones have been suborned. Tricky.
If Trump is compromised, I cannot see him changing tack. He has so much to lose. It seems like his personal survival is now entwined with the politics of his country and other parts of the world.
Where the intelligence bit comes in is how many people around Trump are behaving opportunistically and using him to pursue their own grievances – Roger Stone, Bannon, the anti-woke brigade, the tech Bros – a whole list of them free-riding, finding common purpose in a way that the Left – soft or whatever – could learn from. Trump is being used, but he needs others alongside him to make him look bigger.
In many ways, these synergies have come about at a time when big questions are being asked by society about social media, truth, democracy, high finance and its relationship with criminality. To me, this looks defensive, a grouping of people hovering around Trump for protection finding common ground because it suits them. I do not think this sort of stuff ends well. It may well fall apart from the inside, because of the personalities some of those people involved – they lack class and think that they are invulnerable.
This is why I abhor the prospect of being drawn into any war on such pretext as that.
This might be yet another clue to the nature of their ‘friendship’.
The head of the Pentagon last week ordered the US Cyber Command to stop all activities against the Russian Federation, including offensive cyber operations.
Reported by the specialist publication, ‘Record’
That was staggering
John Mearsheimer’s statement of Putin’s desire “to protect ethnic Russians … from fascism being imposed on them” sounds uncomfortably like one of Russia’s propaganda ‘lines’. Maybe, we do have, in terms of realpolitik, to deal with this dictator’s self-serving delusions – but let us not loose sight, as Trump has clearly done, of the reality, i.e. that these are crazy delusions and not facts at all.
As to his contention, for it is certainly open to debate, that there currently is “a line of separation which has barely moved in a year” which therefore presents “an obvious line for a truce”, I suspect that both Russians forced from the Kursk salient and Ukrainians who have been forced out of Vuhledar would not see their desparate fighting as blandly as this – nor assume that the neutral sounding term “truce” would be equally desirable to both sides.
Richard’s video evokes the Nazi Soviet Pact, whose initial purpose was to permit a blitzkreig war on Poland and to protect Hitler’s eastern flank while he turned upon France and, potentially, Britain. However, its secondary ‘deal’ aspect was to offer Stalin a chance to share in the spoils to its south-east, i.e. Poland – and I would suggest that it is this aspect which, on a wider scale, is drawing Trump’s primitve “common sense” pseudo-business appetite. Hitler sought the greater prize of conquering lebensraum in the Soviet lands to the east; Trump has openly declared his desire for Panama, Greenland and even Canada. So… why not start by ‘sharing’ the Ukraine with Putin after he has bullied Zelinskiy into a phoney ‘investment’ deal…. and after that he and his new buddy can ‘share out’ sphere’s of influence elsewhere?
After all, something very like it has been done before. Remember George W and Blair buddying up at George’s ranch in the era of the “Project for the American Century” ?
At that time I wrote (in a parody of Sir Thomas Wyatt)
“When his loose thoughts in looser words did fall,
Catching me in his project overall,
Upon his ranch showed me the total spread
Of righteous gain; “How ’bout we share?”, he said.”
I think too many are losing sight of the common ground between Trump and Putin – both want territory to boost their causes concentrating wealth in the hands of few. Greater extraction from what they have is hard. So, they want more. The Ukraine minerals deal has toi be seen in that light.
@Nigel
Your disinterest in the laws and bans passed by Ukraine against its own ethnic Russians prior to 2022 disturbs me greatly.
I’ve argued this many times on social media and the best my opponents came up with is something like “Well, Russians historically discriminated against Ukrainian speakers during the Holodomor and the Soviet period”. An admission that Ukraine is indeed socially fascist now by seeking revenge for those times, but it’s historically justified because their grandparents did it to us.
The UK has a long hostiry of English law being used to suppress the interests of the peopole of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, inclduing cultural suppression which to some extent still goes on (try using their languages at Westminster). Does that mean the UK is socially fascist? I am seeking to understand the basis of your claim.
“laws and bans passed by Ukraine against its own ethnic Russians prior to 2022 ”
Go on Mr Mearsheimer – enlighten us. Tells us about these ” bans and laws”.
A Ukrainian lady lives with us – highly educated and famiuliar with the upper strata in Ukraine political society. She’d be real interested to hear what you have to say on this subject. Natch she speaks, fluently Russian, Ukrainian and, now, English. Feel free to link to Ukrainian or indeed Russian sources.
If Byline times is to be believed there is definitely a relationship between Trump and Putin, whether it’s a friendship or not – who knows, but an ex KGB spy chief claims that Trump was recruited by the KGP under the code name Krasnov in the late ’80s. It is worth reading this article.
I find it all very scary……
https://bylinetimes.com/2025/02/21/donald-trump-was-recruited-by-the-kgb-under-codename-krasnov-claims-former-soviet-spy-chief/?mc_cid=dae7e59a6e
I am not sure this is crazy. I think it is reality. And if that is true – and I see no reason to see why not – then those suggesting this is just a natural development of a growing situation where at some point the US was going to accept a geopolitical settlor,ent with Russia have a problem, because this is not a settlement.
And I have a problem with accepting a fascist Russia and USA should be accepted. I have difficulty with those – and a lot on the supposed left seem to be of this view – who think that is acceptable. Why?
I have no problem with a neutral Ukraine.
I do need to know who will guarantee its safety.
I have no problem with referenda – properly administered – on where its boundaries should be.
I do have problems with fascism. Is that so hard to understand? And it does not make me a liberal – it makes me a realis and pragmatist.
Absolutely – fascism is the real threat here. That’s why there’s no moral equivalence – or any other type of equivalence – between what Russia has and is doing, and the steps Ukraine takes to defend itself and regain its territory.
On neutrality, ok, but in that case we have to see Ukraine in the EU. And sooner rather than later.
On guarantees, they certainly can’t come from the US as Trump and his cronies are entirely untrustworthy. Indeed, I’m surprised Zelenskyy is still seeking them from the US. Desperation I suppose. Certainly, there can’t be many diplomats who trust a word Trump says. But whover gives them they have to be cast iron, not like the Budapest agreement – to which the UK was signatory but did nothing when the agreement was broken by Russia.
Finally, another piece of info that I picked up this week but hasn’t been reported here. Mid week the FAA, who had reached a deal with Verizon to provide tech for new systems, was forced to drop that in favour of a deal with – guess – a Musk company, Starlink. Sop I think we can see where any deal for mineral mining would go, can’t we.
And that was on top of yet another Trump move (Exec Order) hardly reported in the UK. Wiping out the Corrupt Practices Act, thereby giving US companies carte blanche to bribe their way through any negotiations for trade deals or contracts.
What’s that old saying: Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Trump and his cronies are living examples of the truth of that. Indeed, we may need to rewrite the second part: ‘…corrupts absolutely and endlessly.’
Corrupt people now have caste blanche to operate in the USA
Replying to Mr Horrocks:
“Trump move (Exec Order) hardly reported in the UK. Wiping out the Corrupt Practices Act, thereby giving US companies carte blanche to bribe their way through any negotiations for trade deals or contracts. ”
So…. e.g. NHS privatisation. US corp can now (in USA) quite legally offer inducements of any sort & any value to a UK civil servant or UK minister. One way around this, is for the UK to make it a treasonable offense for any civil servant or elected offical to accept any inducement – if found guilty – mandatory life sentence and confiscation of all assets……& any contacts with which civil servant/politico handled become null & void.
We are at war with the USA. The Uk needs to protect itself.
Agreed
As always there is lots of good analysis here.
These are unprecedented times and it’s natural to look to the past for insight as to how things should go.
While I don’t have a better comparison the WWII agreement you use and the fallout doesn’t seem quite right for this.
Back then there were two ruthless dictators vying for the greatness of their nation and their twisted ideoigies. Now we have a ruthless dictator with no real ideology and a narcissist who has no care for the nation they lead. Trump is quite happy to dismantle the USA if he can benefit from it. It works for both of them. There is no contention which could cause a spilt between them.
There are second order effects due to trump’s actions which do cause contention. Behaving so badly as to unite Europe into increasing independent defence for example. But the likely effect of that, if anything, is for Putin to encourage Trump to tone it down a bit.