Trump is trying to break government, the USA, world peace and much more. We could despair, or we could, as happened in WW2, plan for a better future. I suggest this is the time to plan.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Our rules of thumb are broken. So, what now?
Let me explain what I mean. During most parts of life, we use what are technically called heuristics, or in practice are called rules of thumb, to help us make decisions. We need to, because there is far too much data flowing our way, most of the time, for us ever to be able to analyse it in detail.
Instead, what we've learned based on experience is that there are some things that we can rely upon, and therefore, we can react to them without having to do too much deep thinking.
Just think about when you're driving a car, if you drive a car. There are so many situations that you come across that if you had to really think about them, you would look as tortured as the average learner driver.
But the precise point is that you don't have to think about them anymore.
You know what to do on the roundabout.
You know when to give way.
You know when to slow down.
You know when to slam on the brakes.
All of those things are going on because you've learned a rule of thumb.
Now, there are rules of thumb in other parts of life as well. And one of the rules of thumb that matters is that the USA hates Russia and Russia hates the USA.
I offer it as a rule of thumb because, basically, throughout my life, that's what we've known to be the case. Whatever Russia wanted, the USA would oppose, and vice versa. We could pretty much rely on it in anything that we looked at, whether we were looking at politics from the day-to-day basis of the discussion that we have in the street, or in my own career, as I once was, a professor of international political economy, we can look at that as one of the givens.
These two power blocks will oppose each other. After all, ever since the Second World War, that is what we have known to be the case. The USA has built its whole political idea, their ideology, on the basis that Russia is communist; communists are bad; the left is terrible; it is right-wing; it is in favour of capitalism, and therefore, there is never going to be common ground.
And then, Donald Trump came along. And now, in the last week or so, J. D. Vance and Donald Trump have turned everything that we thought we knew about international relations on their head.
- D. Vance says that actually what has been going on in Ukraine is fundamentally wrong. Europe has misread the situation. The USA is going to go in and negotiate a peace deal without the involvement of Ukraine itself, which is almost so bizarre one can't work out what the heck they're thinking.
And, Trump is weighing in by saying basically that Putin is now his friend, the person who he can do a deal with, and Russian and American negotiating teams are sitting down in Saudi Arabia, literally negotiating a peace deal for Ukraine, without either Europe or Ukraine itself being represented in the room, even though this is clearly a European issue, and it matters most of all to Ukraine.
So, what is going on here?
Well, first of all, let's be clear. The heuristic has been torn up. What we thought we knew is no more. And that's absolutely fundamental.
This is true right across the board with Trump. Whatever we thought we knew about having sane people in government, about having rationality in government, about having responsibility in government, all of those things - I could keep going, but I don't need to - all of them have gone.
It's very clear that the normal boundaries of responsibility that government has been so associated with, even to the point of being boring, so that it didn't deliver, those have all disappeared. Instead, we have Trump doing his best to wreck international relations as we once knew them, and Musk doing his best to break government.
So, we are in what Thomas Kuhn, a philosopher who wrote about this issue in 1962, described as a situation of paradigm shift. Paradigm shift describes a situation where what we knew ceases to be and something new comes into its place instead.
His argument was quite straightforward. Kuhn argued that instead of progress being gradual, the world lived in steady state situations for quite some time. And then there was a moment of revolutionary change when everything that we thought we knew would disappear and something else comes along in its place. And I think it's fair to say we are literally living in the middle of a paradigm shift right now.
We have to get at why this is happening.
Is it possible, for example, that Putin did actually help Trump get into office in 2016, as many people think, and as a consequence he's now calling back the favour?
Is it that these two people, who are both dedicated to rule for their own benefit and not for anybody else, see common ground for just that reason?
Or is it that Trump is now declaring that the US and Putin's Russia share an ideology which could only be described as fascism if that is the case?
Whatever the reason, what we knew has gone. We are suffering a paradigm shift. And not surprisingly, a lot of people around the world are deeply confused as a result.
I am. I don't know who isn't confused by what is happening right now. But what I do know is that paradigm shifts provide opportunity.
One of the biggest paradigm shifts that went on in the last century was the reframing of world politics as a consequence of the breakout of World War II.
World War II was, let's be blunt about it, a fight against fascism. That is exactly what happened. It wasn't a fight between the UK and the USA and other countries and Germany per se. It was a fight against a fascist government in Germany and elsewhere, in Italy, and, let's be honest, also in Japan at that time, which was in a very odd state.
But, whatever it was, that Axis - and that's what they called themselves - were trying to impose a worldview that was alien to the positions of the UK and France and the USA and many others.
So, this was an ideological war. And in the middle of that ideological war, which is not that different a situation to the one we're now in, there were those who took the opportunity to stand back and say “What do we want as the outcome of all this? Could we do things better once this mayhem has ended?”
We are suffering mayhem now, let's be clear about it. What Trump is doing is meant to be chaotic. It is chaotic. It is totally disruptive. It is not sustainable. This will end in tears, as my mother used to say, and I wouldn't be surprised if yours did too.
There is nothing good that can come out of the situation that Trump is creating, in my opinion, and that of many others. He is out to destroy and destroy he will.
But this, then, is the moment when we can think about what we do want. And what we do want is a fairer, better world, where the focus of government attention should not be on the prospering of business and should not be on the flourishing of the wealthy but should be on the delivery of well-being for everyone.
And that is precisely what happened in World War II. J. M. Keynes rewrote the whole logic of economic management, so that full employment of people on at least a living wage became the focus of government for decades to come.
And Beveridge wrote his report which became the foundation of the welfare state. The welfare state provided us with, in the UK at least, free education for everyone. and free health care for everyone, and a social safety net so that those who were not able to work would be provided with benefits to ensure that they did not have to live in destitute poverty. We changed the whole structure of our society as a consequence, and we built half a million homes a year for people so that they could live decently instead of in slums.
Fundamental social change was the consequence of the paradigm shift that had given rise to the fight against fascism that led to World War II. That could be the outcome of what is happening now if we grab the opportunity to think about what it is that we want.
That is what this channel is about. I want to think about that better world.
I want to talk about how we can achieve it, what economics can underpin it, and what the benefits could be.
We have to grab this opportunity in the midst of confusion because if we don't, we will miss a chance to create a better outcome for everyone. And that would be truly disastrous.
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I agree. We are shocked that constitutional norms and the rule of law can be so easily challenged for evil ends – but isn’t such fundamental disruption of ‘the Establishment’ also in fact necessary to move government on to positive reform? If the left stops thinking at the defense of the status quo against fascism, it is – especially in the US – accepting conceptions built to defend exploitative capitalism; it is defending precisely the conditions that enabled Trump in the first place. Rather, it should be saying: this chaos is not an aberration, but the result of the very core of the way we have been running our economy and society, it’s really this that must be changed, and the present chaos is an opportunity to do so.
Trump is a KGB agent, and has been probably since the late 1970s. I need to qualify “agent”, he may not have even known he was. Note that Byline came under a massive DDOS attack shortly afterwards.
https://bylinetimes.com/2025/02/21/donald-trump-was-recruited-by-the-kgb-under-codename-krasnov-claims-former-soviet-spy-chief/
The Mirtovkin archive. Mitrovkin was THE KGB’s archivist from the 1960s to the end of the 1980s. He was exfiltrated in 1992 by the British with all the info he had collected over the years. A large book was published on the beans he spilled. It is clear from the KGB modus operandi in the 1980s that Trump would have been a target – although would probably have been on the rader before then (given his marriage and his money & that the KGB were moving from ideologically driven agents to money driven – Mitrovkins own words).
Obvs, only a filtered amount of stuff was published (the book is massive btw) and the question is what was missing as much as what was there. I guess there were a couple of stages of interest in Trump:
late 1970s – a Czech married rich US guy – file opens
1987 – visits Moscow – compromat
1990s, 2000s, more compromat and cultivation continues with maybe not property possibilities (keep him on the lead) (Note Trump confirmed that “Russian grils were without morals” – gosh whatever could that mean”).
2010s, growing interest, cultivation pedal (via cutouts) pressed to the floor.
Why has nobody said anything? in Russia you would become part of the on-going “can people fly out of buildings” experiement.
Why has nobody said anything in USA?- he probably has a file – somewhere – but what do you do if the US president is a KGB agent? (knowingly or unknowingly?) Oh & you have no compromat.
The point of what is happening? Downgrade the USA as an opponent and humiliate it (zero sum game – I win – you lose). Keep in mind, Trumps win in 2016 was a surprise – thus not all the skittles were lined up & there was still in the USA groups that could oppose him.
The question: “Is it possible, for example, that Putin did actually help Trump get into office in 2016, as many people think, and as a consequence he’s now calling back the favour” needs to be a statement of fact. Ther Steele report published in 2016 implied only one incident of compromat – there are in fact 10s of them – all in high-def video & sound. I have no doubt that unlike Stalin when Putin shows films, it is not wild west stuff but Trump in his birthday suit with a couple of Svetlanas. The compromat part is not even speculation – it is a KGM modus operandi and Trump would have been part of that from the 1970s onwards. Keep in mind, his first wife’s father was Czech intelligence.
This was all as clear as daylight in 2016.
Didn’t I see a report somewhere saying MI6 regretted helping to get Putin into power
It is surely inconceivable that Western intelligence agencies have not been aware of this for a long time…..
Nick Cohen is quoting Palmerston: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
Biden was always a worry – just stuck in cold war mindset – Russia the always enemy etc. Now that Trump (or Krasnov?) has cosied up to Putin, our military industrial complex and expert commentators are urging us in Europe to rearm and prepare for forever wars . Obviously Putin is a threat – but why should Russia always be? Richard Sakwa (‘the Lost Peace’) shows how ‘we’ helped oligarchs / City of London to strip Russia of its assets – and to create Putin after the chaos.
We are in danger of being sucked into the forever wars – we need to talk to Russia not only about our concerns , but also theirs – which have long been held across their political spectrum, about being surrounded – NATO on its borders etc. – distorted as they may be by Putin.
When you do talk about increasing defence spending Richard – please talk about the other things we should do to avoid war, – to build economic and social relationships between countries.
Accepted.
Anyone would think, based on how Trump and Musk are behaving, that they act as agents of Putin to wreck America and the established Western order. It’s hard to imagine a puppet – someone completely under Putin’s control – achieving his aims more effectively. So one wonders – why are they so enthusiastically doing Putin’s work? A confluence of worldviews, values and goals, or something more sinister – kompromat, or both of these?
I salute your positive framing of the chaos.
During the first Covid lockdown, it seemed obvious that we knew who it was that really was valuable in society ….. The NHS, public services, teachers, shop workers, delivery folk. No-one seemed to mind a lack of access to marketing execs or corporate lawyers….
Some people had time to stop, think and assess what was valuable, meaningful. I thought we had a chance to restructure and re-evaluate how we kick-started a post-covid settlement. Perhaps artists would express an alternative way of living more fulfilled lives for everyone, with a fairer settlement based on an experiment which showed what roles and activities mattered.
What happened: many people who didn’t need to work or travel saved money, and there was a post recovery inflation. Employers sought workers and there was private sector wage growth. Public sector wages at below inflation levels…… Any new settlement didn’t seem to happen …. Perhaps the opposite.
I hope your optimism is justified!
So do I.
Whilst I agree with your main message, Richard, I don’t think that Kuhn’s concept of paradigm shift is appropriate in this context. It was intended to explain the progress of science, for example in the case of the Copernican revolution. I don’t think there is anything scientific about what is happening, nor is it progress.
We will have to disagree.
Kuhn gave the way science evolved as an example but his notion of paradigm shifts is applicable to any body of thought that rests on foundational beliefs. Copernicus persuaded us to believe that the earth revolves around the sun rather than the other way round, as previously believed. All we thought about the solar system, if not the universe, had to be revised. Western security since WWII has revolved around the beliefs that such security is impossible without dependency on America, & that America would always have our backs. At least one of these beliefs appears to be false. Hopefully the other will prove to be too…
I want the same as you, Richard. A fairer society, more help for those in need and everything you have been campaigning for, for so long.
However it seems to me that we are facing an existential crisis in Europe (on the European continent). Trump seems intent on giving large parts of Ukraine to Putin. We know that Putin won’t stop there. Putin has also been meddling in European politics for years, supporting parties like AfD in Germany and the Front National in France. While the AfD may not win the German elections today, long-term it’s clear that Putin’s aim is to destroy any European resistance to his project.
This may sound like hyperbole but it looks like democracy in Europe really is in danger. The only way we have any chance of making the world a better place is if we can first endure that we protect our democracy. We need to do the following:
– make sure everyone is aware of the huge and malevolent Russian influence over our politics,
– politicians in the traditional moderate parties (left and right) need to stop arguing between them and work together to protect our democracy. We need to pressure them to put aside their differences and work together.
– TikTok and other social media are spreading disinformation and propaganda – they need to be regulated and should be forced to fact-check their information
Only if we still have our democracy will we be able to build the better world that I think most people here want. Personally I’m feeling overwhelmed by the enormity of this challenge. If anyone had any suggestions how we can individually act, please share them.
How do you know what Putin wants?
What is his serious military capability? It seems pretty low to me.
The threat is not Putin per se. It is here.
Yes, I think we have lost the war already in Europe.
I think it true that Europe has to a large extent hidden behind the American’s war making capacity for far too long, and seen the savings on defence as some sort of ‘peace dividend’. However, there is more to this than meets the eye.
These ‘savings’ have also been made under faulty ‘balanced budget’ criteria adopted by the ECB where it thinks that it has only a limited number of choices in printing money in its avowed aim to ‘control inflation’ through the hackneyed Neo-lib methodology of the money supply.
How creative! Actually, how stupid………..
It was also stupid of our euro leaders to think that America would always be there, and not have a plan in the back pocket to sense the risk of them one day saying they were not interested anymore. Maybe we thought that the Yanks are so greedy and self serving that they would never loose interest in Europe – after all, America is everywhere is it not?
But, not being there should have been considered in our future plans. But also, what has Europe been doing? Our financial systems have been used by international criminality; we allowed the U.S. to dictate a certain attitude to Russia (who in Europe stuck up for Russia as it went through its changes?).
Europe has actually been very weak indeed even though it has set up a’union’. Apparently pro-Putin Serbia wants to join the EU. It should be told ‘no’. I wouldn’t touch Serbia with a 50 foot barge pole. Another Putin ally in the EU – no thanks.
But the fundamental weakness in Europe and the States is its worship of money; the way it assigns magical powers to those who accrue it, the notion that it has ‘personality’ and must have freedom to move anywhere means that in the long run, Russia can wreak havoc because of the Wests blindness and its ‘over-liberalism’ (sorry for the ‘ism’).
So, in answer to your post, the first order of attack I would recommend is to start posing questions about the freedom of movement of capital and how – since the capital is moved about in sovereign government created denominations – government has the right to know who is being sent what. There is no way that a situation that exists in say Switzerland, should be allowed to exist. If the money there is in a denomination of the host nation, then the government has a right to know it exists and who it came from and so does its citizens. And any bank must be compelled to report it. And it all starts from there – disclosure. Who is pouring money into fascism? Someone is! It’s obvious.
Much of what is wrong in this world is to do with the abuse of money. Money is not a private matter. It is a social good, never mind that it is an international one, distorted by notions of individual ownership that can when abused have anti-social consequences. Money is powerful. It has to have a moral purpose, a moral use, a moral purpose. We must wrestle money back from market.
When we allow billionaires to exist, to allow huge private corporations which have the rights of persons to amass portfolios of companies we are essentially privatising our economies and undermining democracies, signing over huge resources of power to unaccountable, flawed human beings.
That is where are, and that is where need to start. That is the first order of battle in my view. Dismantle it all I say and make them accountable.
Thanks
Noted
Apologies for posting twice – but this came across the wire, it is, apparently on Facebook – which I don’t use & don’t access. I think it is clear enough. The USA is now a dictatorship controlled by Russia (substitute “Putin” for “The President” (nearly wrote Presrodent) and it all makes sense. This recent Executive Order does the following:
❧ All federal agencies, including independent regulatory commissions, are now subject to direct White House control.
❧ Regulations cannot be issued without presidential approval.
❧ The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) can now withhold funding from independent agencies if they don’t align with White House priorities.
❧ All federal employees must follow the President’s and Attorney General’s interpretation of the law, eliminating legal independence.
❧ A White House Liaison is to be installed in every independent regulatory agency to enforce direct presidential control.
This formally ends the concept of an “independent” regulatory agency, dismantling one of the last barriers to absolute executive power.
This order erases the last major restraints on executive power. The federal government no longer operates with checks and balances. Regulations and laws are now dictated solely by the President.
✅ The SEC, FTC, FCC, and FEC are no longer independent.
The Stock Market is now subject to White House control, enabling insider trading, favoritism, and targeting of political opponents. Antitrust laws can be selectively enforced, allowing administration-friendly monopolies to expand unchecked. Political opponents in the tech sector, media, or finance can be targeted with regulatory action while allies are protected. Elections are now influenced by direct White House oversight of the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
✅ The FDA, EPA, and consumer protection agencies are fully politicized.
Drug approvals, food safety regulations, and environmental policies can be rewritten for political or corporate interests. Climate change regulations can be erased overnight. Scientific research is now subject to White House approval before public release.
✅ The OMB can now adjust funding allocations for independent agencies.
This gives the President the power to defund agencies without needing Congress. Regulatory agencies that challenge presidential policies will be quietly strangled of resources. Agencies loyal to the President will receive full funding—even illegally. Implication: Congress no longer controls federal spending on regulatory enforcement. The executive branch can choke out opposition agencies and reward allies.
The President & Attorney General Have Final Say on All Legal Interpretations
✅ All federal employees must follow White House interpretations of the law. The Attorney General’s opinions override agency lawyers, inspectors general, and independent counsel. Agencies cannot adopt their own interpretations of legal statutes—everything must align with the President’s views. The President can rewrite federal legal interpretations overnight.
✅ A “White House Liaison” will be placed in every independent agency.
This ensures constant presidential oversight of daily operations. These liaisons will report agency actions back to the White House and enforce political compliance. Agency directors will no longer have the ability to act without White House approval.
Every regulatory body—from financial markets to environmental protections—is now politicized. Congress no longer controls federal funding—agencies must obey the White House or risk defunding. The President’s legal interpretations override all agency autonomy, eliminating independent enforcement of federal laws. The federal bureaucracy, once designed to be resistant to corruption, is now completely subject to presidential loyalty.
I doubt if the Republicans will do anything, & the democrats have shown themselves functionally incapable. This leaves the US military, who make not be happy wrt to Russia now the USA’s best friend & massive defunding.
Source?
Sorry to ask, but it would be useful.
Could be this?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/ensuring-accountability-for-all-agencies/
Thank you
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/executive-order-independent-agencies-trump/
This is an article – only differing in that the Facebook stuff gives lists
https://www.facebook.com/login/?next=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcynthia.c.berry.7%3F__cft__%255B0%255D%3DAZV7KwY6a2XtsoJ8IH-RM1xrX7QaVG883-NMLJKW-j97ROu0RRue7NSJJbGnOtUDTTqN7jwxWPOEMrEBbcl_94kcmgspYo06FeuYERT-d5LgELDA5SWlEb4Qkw4S8fVTMq-v38btsUY9L-9TBw9j3XO-TFMVAheSEtKbMIaSGY2Z1L9QOki9rtEhnGDBdHFg1q3Se-1-o_2Sf4JYy_L00kHYTuQ7XV7SlZuXKwUBz8EsHKhJFagm0W1ZmqePa8kazMo%26__tn__%3D-UC%252CP-y-R
Thanks
“This leaves the US military…”
– whose Chiefs have been summarily dismissed, precisely to head off that possibility.
And it would be surprising if there were to be a military counter coup!
Perhaps the federal nature of the USA may provide some agency at the state level: even to the extent of issuing their own currency (and receiving taxes in it, of course) if no money is forthcoming from the federal Treasury for vital functions? The breakup of the Union… and the emasculation of the USA as a global power. The state governors in some places seem to be standing up to be counted.
Richard, great post and what you say makes sense, as usual. However, the pessimism inside me sees the elephant in the room, to get real change in the 1950s onwards, we had to suffer a WWII to get there. As any great changes in the past of human civilisation, there has had to be a devastating catalyst preceding it.
My actual only (selfish) hope of me and my family surviving in this century that I am clinging onto, is the thought that we live in a globalised financial system, which will hopefully deter any large scale / MAD style WWIII, as the global elite would have too much to lose financially. However, the caveat of this is, is that we are stuck with neoliberalism/fascism for the foreseeable future.
I think our hope has to be that we might survive this. Global warming does not help.
I would like to suggest an alternative explanation to Trump’s friendliness to Putin.
The US see China as their main threat. Russia is currently aligned with China, and also the other BRICS. A China/Russia alliance is unbeatable by the US so they need to be separated somehow and what we are seeing (vis-a-vis Ukraine/Europe) is simply the start of that process. Just think of it as Trump needing to show is bona fides before anything else can happen.
Only time will tell if this explanation has any validity at all, or whether this is just a dream, as it may well be.