The FT has a headline this morning that says:
In principle, I have no problem with the US cutting its defence spending: the military-industrial complex has been a curse of modern times, as the late President and General Dwight D Eisenhower said it would be. There will, no doubt, be corruption and waste to be found there.
That, though, is not my reason for noting this. Instead, I note that this supposed cull - if it happens - is part of a trend that suggests that the Trump agenda is profoundly incoherent unless democracy is not at its core.
This programme hits the armed forces and defence workers, who are natural Republicans, and so Trump supporters.
The cuts to Federal budgets have done the same thing. The largest number of Federal workers are engaged in programmes to to do with defence and veterans. These are popular with Republican voters.
And the almost total annihilation of the USAid budget will cut spending with US farmers - many in the most marginal areas where Republican support has traditionally been very high - by $2 billion a year since much of the food aid supplied by USAid has been grown in the US mid-west.
In other words, much as the Republican voter thinks that they hate the Federal government, many of them either identify with or are dependent upon a great deal of what they do and would not wish it to disappear.
If Trump had been planning a programme to alienate his core support, he could not have come up with something more likely to do so than what he is doing. The impact may not be seen as yet because most of these actions have yet to have an impact on the ground. However, when they inevitably do hit hard - as they will - the MAGA are not going to be amused by the fact that Trump's programmes hit them hard. They will not appreciate the reminder that this will provide that they are just part of the problem of government dependency that they supposedly despise.
A normal politician would realise this.
A normal politician would probably not plan to make their own core supporters victims of their programmes (although Labour is, in the UK).
A normal politician would worry about the impact of all this on their prospects for re-election.
But then, Trump is not a normal politician. And he is not worried about re-election. He is, after all, engaged in running a coup, not a government. He can alienate who he likes. His assumption is that they will never have the means to fight back. Being re-elected is not on his agenda because elections aren't either.
This is the USA in 2025.
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On the issue of defence and democracy, I saw this article last night.
Mark Smith resigned over the issue of British arms sales to Israel.
Two paragraphs “He said from the UK embassy in Ireland – a country that strongly backs a Palestinian state – he sought answers from the Foreign Office headquarters about the legal basis for arms sales to Israel, and was “met with hostility and stonewalling”.
“Emails went unanswered. I was warned not to put my concerns in writing. Lawyers and senior officials bombarded me with defensive instructions to ‘stick to the lines’ and delete correspondence. It became clear that no one was willing to address the fundamental question: How could continued arms sales to Israel possibly be legal?”
The whole article is here.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/09/britain-arms-exports-uk-foreign-office-mark-smith
Like Trump not caring about his voters, Starmer will continue to lose his party’s supporters -if not much of the public -over this.
Thanks, and agreed
I read that article with great interest. Was I the only one who wondered why Mark Smith put up with this illegality for so many years, before, eventually resigning? The Saudi/Yemen situation he complains of happened in 2018!
Family, in a word.
As second term US President he can’t run again which is perhaps the reason he doesn’t care about reelection?
I don’t think so…
What do you mean, Richard? He is limited to two terms in office, unless he changes the rules, which as we know is not beyond him. Or are you talking about him not caring?
He is staging a coup
He is ignoring the law already
What part of that don’t you get? The consitution already looks like history.
Its all a bit like Major Major Majors father who took a lot of money from the Government for not growing Alfalfa but otherwise thought that taxation and Government spending was a terrible thing.
(Catch 22)
The British seem rather fond of electing “hypocrisy” parties I wonder why that is? Obviously most posting on this blog know it’s “education, education” or rather lack thereof!
Do they?
I am not at all sure that is the explanation.
As you point out, the collateral damage does not seem to be a concern which leads one to conceive that it does not matter because Trump is in now and that is end of that.
Bejing: Politburo. Xi Jinping: “given Trumps commitment to cut defense spending please monitor staffing in the US armed forces, particularly officer levels and redouble efforts on monitoring overall spending and spending on naval assets – what trends do we see?”
Yes comrade
Xi Jinping: “admiral please give the politburo scenarios for earliest reclaim of Taiwan and latest reclaim and also force readiness levels for either scenario”.
The probability of such discussions happening is close to 100%.
In the context of Trump: blabber has consequences. Of course the USA has one or two (non-military assets) which will give the Chinese pause for reflection.
But I rather doubt Trump is aware of them. Clue: if Chinese mineral prospecting is successful (so far not) that will be the trigger for the invasion.
Much to agree with
Trump is obsessed with being the centre of attention. That’s why he dominates the news agenda with his “sayings”.
Forget rationalism when dealing with him. You have no idea what ” win win ” will be, because anything he says will be his win.
But the total untruths need to be called out by his opponents.
As we know, Trump really doesn’t care about the outcomes of tariffs, just the noisy headlines they create when announced.
I remember reading about some of his tariffs in his first term which destroyed the US soybean export sales to China almost stone dead. It ended up requiring the federal government to spend well over a billion dollars (perhaps billions), to buy the excess soybeans because otherwise the whole industry in one or two states would have collapsed.
Trump, of course, was probably completely unaware or completely indifferent to that. He probably thinks he won that particular trade war bigly.
I think he does care
He knows he needs money very badly
And he knows that markets are watching
It is not just exports. Plenty of products that the US needs re not available from domestic suppliers in sufficient quantities – in some cases, not at all.
China is the world’s largest producer of aluminium. About 70% of the world annual smelter output. After India and Russia, Canada is fourth – about 6%, 5% and 4% respectively. The US has about 1% of production, recycles some, and imports about half of its annual requirement, most from Canada.
Or tungsten. China has about 80% of the world output. And the US has none currently and for several years at least. Or any number of other essential industrial and defence resources – antimony, gallium, etc.
And the China leadership will be licking their lips (very quietly) at the prospect of the US withdrawing from its programs for soft power projection, eg through USAID.
Trump’s macho bluster is a sign of weakness not strength. I doubt he realises how fragile the position is, maintained by trust and confidence, and the US dollar. It has a feeling of the retrenchment of the UK on its withdrawal from empire. Like bankruptcy, the change will come slowly and then quickly.
Much to agree with
Whilst alienating his core support and gutting Federal programmes, he’s also still grifting. He sent out 3 emails to his supporters yesterday:
1. The Trump Black Card whereby, on payment to him, supporters could become part of his unofficial Cabinet and receive a Trump Black Card confirming their membership.
2. Begging for money as his administration is being sued due to the illegality of his Executive Orders.
3. The Trump Golden Eagle awards for being a devoted, unwavering Trump supporter. Donations required to receive the award which looks like another card.
Meanwhile Trump, Vance and Musk are threatening the Judges who have issued injunctions preventing Musk from rummaging around in people’s private information. Reports suggest they could sell Americans’ sensitive information for billions of dollars.
Money, money, money – that’s what this coup is all about.
Isn’t it strange that Musk has hired wee boy hackers, and not forensic accountants, to look for fraud in all of the Federal Departments he’s closing down.
They’re not actually looking for fraud, are they? Perhaps Trump believes that myth but Musk certainly isn’t doing that.
Cory Doctorow has an interesting blog post on the subject of Musk’s “broccoli haired brownshirts” and their Fagin like boss.
https://pluralistic.net/2025/02/07/broccoli-hair-brownshirts/#shameless
Lots of links in the blog to follow to more detailed articles.
I think they want -need- more scapegoats-to persecute.
It’s how they justify their seizure of power.
I see Trump dictating. As he flies across a stretch of water surrounded by cameras and “journalists” he renames it.
He sits next to a man wanted for alleged war crimes and says he will sanction the prosecutors, a man convicted of 34 felony convictions gives this assurance to a man standing trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He creates a “currency” out of thin air and there is no discussion of his powers to do so, statements then follow about such currencies formng part of the country’s national resrves
What has happened to the much vaunted checks and balances of the American Constitution, US democracy has all the appearnces of an elective
dictatorship.
The checks and balances failed because all constitutions ultimately depend on people behaving with a certain degree of integrity and willingness to observe the spirit of the rules.
@Ian Stevenson
Or more succinctly, the “rule of law” is a social contract.
If one has no concept of society, one never enters into a social contract.
Explain the complicity of the other Republicans then, since their job would be on the line even if Trump can’t run again.
This is a coup
They want jobs in the new set up
Also, cowardice and lack of any real political convictions.
They’ve worked very hard to get themselves into the cushy jobs in Congress/Senate and are in hock to the big business which funded them.
Whatever Trump and his cult require of them, they will do because otherwise they know that they will be primaried out of their jobs and replaced with somebody (even) more supine.
Hence the screeching 180 degree turns we’ve seen in the rhetoric of many of them over the past couple of years. When it suited them, they could say what they wanted about the orange menace, but as soon as it became clear he was going to be the next nominee they started to do what they were bloody well told, even if they think it will be disastrous for the country.
Heck, they are even worse than most of our politicians! Probably due to all the extra money on offer to them.
Tom, You are assuming there will be another US presidential election. Trump appears to believe there will not be…………