The chaos that will surround Trump‘s second presidency of the USA has already become apparent.
Given that Trump‘s only personal agenda appears to be saving his own skin and avoiding prison, the most important aspect of this presidency is who will have the most influence over him when decisions have to be made.
Trump‘s openness to the opinion of others could, if he consulted with wise people, be considered a strength. The problem for the USA is that those whose counsel he takes are not only unwise, they are vehemently opposed to each other. Before even reaching office, this has become very apparent.
Massive divisions have already emerged on the issue of migration. Musk and his team of tech billionaires want to perpetuate visa schemes for migrants, on whom they depend for the development of new products. The Make America Great Again faction within the Republican Party, which has been the basis of Trump's support for a decade or so now, is vehemently opposed to such visas, whatever the economic cost to the USA of denying those with critical skills access to the country.
Open ideological warfare has broken out between these factions on Twitter, X, or whatever else you wish to call it. There is nothing subtle about the language being used or the venom being expressed. These people are, after all, well-practised in delivering abuse because that is their stock-in-trade. The positions appear irreconcilable, and Trump has now made it very obvious that he is siding with Musk, pitching himself as a consequence against the anti-immigrants, which is definitely going to infuriate them.
Where will this leave the debate on the 11 million undocumented people in the USA who Trump claims must be expelled? It's a very good question because Trump has clearly come down on the side of the economy regarding visas for those with skills. If the question of the merit of expelling 11 million undocumented people were to be decided on the same basis, then there is no doubt that they would be allowed to stay. The US economy is dependent upon them. The MAGA will want to ignore that fact.
If those on the far-right thought that running a far-right government was going to be easy, then they were seriously mistaken. The Trump government is already in for a very difficult ride.
The same will also be true with regard to issues around healthcare. Tackling obesity is the front line here. Robert F Kennedy has been given the task of doing this. He wants to change the nation's diet, even though doing so will massively upset its food producers, including the Midwest farmers who voted for Trump. Musk, on the other hand, wants a solution based on Ozempic-style drugs. Again, the positions look pretty irreconcilable, but on this occasion, this gives Trump the headache of deciding which of these two of his chosen nominees he will back, with their only being the possibility of keeping one happy.
I have already suggested that politics is messy in this morning's video. What is apparent is that it is going to get very much messier still. The far-right is clueless as to what they really want to do with power and are as willing to fight each other as they are to fight everyone else. The only good news from all this is that Trump might make it very clear to the rest of the world that opting to put populists like him in power is a very bad idea. The only problem is it might take a while for that message to get through. Meanwhile, vast numbers will suffer as a consequence of the madness of these people.
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Robert F Kennedy Jr will not only upset the big food companies, but pharmaceuticals too. It is convenient that their poor diet leads to chronic conditions that require drug treatments. It may also be why the USA has more food additives, many of which do not need testing.
Sources
“Goldman Sachs asks in biotech research report: ‘Is curing patients a sustainable business model?’”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/goldman-asks-is-curing-patients-a-sustainable-business-model.html
“https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/goldman-asks-is-curing-patients-a-sustainable-business-model.html”
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/revolutionandrevelation/72407
“Why does food differ between the UK and US?” (2024)
https://zoe.com/learn/uk-versus-us-food
There is no incentive for any business to cure a patient.
All the money is in managing chronic conditions.
It is for government to go fur the cure.
Presumably thats why there are no publicly owned drug development companieswith a mission to ‘cure’ rather than manage.
The world needs new anti- anti biotics – but there is no money in it – so we dont get one.
Just a thought: What a healthier and safer place the UK would be if the military industrial complex and pharmaceutics were nationalised.
I read a post by Heather Cox Richardson which laid out the issues very well.
She is very good
Lots of coverage of this on the MSNBC current affairs programmes, Richard (see here for an example: https://www.msnbc.com/all). You note Kennedy but others are as bad. As Trump refuses to have his picks vetted – as they always would have been by any other president – Rachel Maddow has started a series of ‘Public Servant Announcements’, where she undertakes a review of the various choices. Here’s one example ‘Dr Mehmet Oz’, chosen to be the head of the department that oversees Medicare and Medicaid. Worth watching for the sheer amount of slime this person bathes in. Then again, Trump has no moral or ethical standards so why would anyone he picks for government: pigs in shit and all that (though comparing Trump and his acolytes to pigs is to insult pigs). Anyway, here it is: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show
Thanks
Every fascist regime that has taken power in history has always had ONE “strong leader” – usually a sad bloke with little in the way of real self-confidence but a lot of bluster.
There are at least 3 people seriously trying to be “king of the world” – Trump, Musk & Putin….
They were always going to fall out, big time.
Putin thinks he’s got enough compromat on Trump to control him, but his power is waning.
Musk thinks, now that the election’s done, the electorate is irrelevant.
Trump just wants to stay out of jail.
Where on earth is all this going?
Is Putin really an influence?
You ask a good question, Richard.
It’s amazing what people pick up from the media.
Much of what we read about serious issues is as valid as the old headline “Lancaster Bomber Found on Moon” of about 35 years ago.
“Russiagate” has been proved to be in the same category.
It’s probably also to be noted that many things won’t be decided by Trump. Democrats even gained one seat in the House in November – so it’s 215 Democrats to 220 Republicans. Republicans in the House are divided into trumpists, MAGA and old-school anti-trumpist Republicans – so will have real problem getting majority for anything (shutdown vote showed this). Some seats in the House will be contested already in November 2025 – the agreement is that Democrats will most likely take the House already then (I thought they’d have to wait till 2026). Senate seats which are for grabs in November 2026 will also favour Democrats.
The big question is whether Democrats learnt anything from their defeat – judging by influence Nancy Pelosi had on deciding on committee chairs, they haven’t learnt much. I agree with Biden who apparently said he would’ve had more chance against Trump than Harris.
@Peter D
“I agree with Biden who apparently said he would’ve had more chance against Trump than Harris.”
Very true.
This is what I said from the very beginning: ‘Harris cannot win”.
Pete Buttigieg or Beto O’Rourke would have had a better chance of defeating Trump. Beto O’Rourke had the best chance as he is not part of the Biden administration and is from Texas.
You might call this split Old Maga vs Oligarch Maga. Trump was always going to take the side of the tech oligarchs on the visa issue. Musk has been quite open about why he prefers to recruit from India – he claims they are better trained and a lot less demanding on salary, and there is no doubt that this view is shared by the other tech oligarchs. Old Maga (Bannon, Loomer, Coulter etc) are furious and extremely venomous in their attacks, not even bothering to hide their racism.
Kennedy may have some good ideas about the US food industry, but he has zero chance of succeeding against the junk food manufacturers, and we all know whose side Trump will take in that one. The wall of money and campaign donations will be decisive and it will be surprising if Kennedy survives in his role for more than a year.
“(I thought they’d have to wait till 2026)”
The whole House or Representatives comes up for an election every two years. Senate terms are six years but one-third of the Senate comes up for a vote every two years.
If a seat becomes vacant (death or resignation) then the individual states decides what to do base on their state constitutions: A special election can be held or a governor may appoint someone.
In Florida a governor may appoint someone the House or to the Senate if there is less than two years to run on the normal six year term of said Senator being replaced. This varies from state-to-state.
In Florida, if there is more than two years left on the Senate term, a special election must be called and take place.
All true, but isn’t it also true of UK politics, albeit in a less extreme version? We want useful immigration but are too scared to admit it. We know we need net zero but are terrified of upsetting the multinationals. We have an obesity crisis but but dealing with would invoke the Daily Mail’s anti woke scorn. We want better public services but can’t pay for them through taxation without a media backlash. Close a tax loophole and the farmers will block the streets with their tractors…and on and on.
Richard, sorry for being late to the party (this thread), fascinating that the paper I cited for you to explore in your previous thread, directly discusses this phenomenon of the fascist far-right leader/party joining forces with the neoliberals – after campaigning to get into power claiming to be against the establishment/neoliberalism themselves.
This is a present real life example of how the far-right/fascists/populists are just conmen, their only appeal is an apparent change from the establishment/neoliberalism, through distraction tactics of hatred as opposed to actual economic change, yet when they get into power, cosy up with the neoliberals.
And as for the neoliberals, they only go with the far-right because they want to distance themselves from the current centre right politics as this is failing. Of course the neoliberals don’t care about nationalism, only what makes the most money. Hence, the current clash between Trump/fascists and Musk – although as predictable, Trump will side with Musk.
So what does this prove? The bankers/neoliberals are the real ones in power? Also the single transferable party is very accurate
Richard, I first learned about your writings and analysis through cross posts at Naked Capitalism. In case you missed it over the holidays there was an excellent analysis of how to evaluate Trump and his policies.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/12/trump-and-political-realignment-twirling-toward-freedom.html
Thanks.
Rad, and noted. And worthwhile reading, I would add.
Read ‘free to obey’ by Chapoutot
It explains nazi and fascist idéology.
Trump is copying hitler.
Hé is thé suprême leader, his unifying slogan ‘make america great again’
Hé appoints à séries of headstrong acolytes Whose only rôle is to please thé leader in ‘ making america great again’.
They compète by théir audacity , law breaking and ruthlessness.
Policies are infused by social darwinism: punishing thé weak and supporting thé rich and powerful.
War is thé inévitable conclusion.
An émergency Will be Called and democracy and law suspended.
As i say- read thé Book. Thé parallèls between thé nazis and Trump are uncanny.
I have no idea how that comment includes so many accented letters.