The Office for National Statistics has issued this statement this morning:
- UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, revised up from a first estimate increase of 0.6%.
- Looking at more timely monthly estimates of GDP, it was recently estimated that the economy showed no growth in April 2024.
- GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2024 compared with the same quarter a year ago.
- In output terms, services grew by 0.8% on the quarter with widespread growth across the sector; elsewhere the production sector grew by 0.6% while the construction sector fell by 0.6%.
- In expenditure terms, there were increases in the volume of net trade and household spending, partially offset by falls in gross capital formation and government consumption.
- The household saving ratio is estimated to be 11.1% in the latest quarter, up from 10.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023.
- Real households' disposable income (RHDI) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2024, maintaining the same growth as the previous quarter.
Let me summarise that:
- A rounding error in first quarter GDP figures has been corrected.
- Any growth in household income has largely gone into savings, although people have gone out a bit more. Presumably, people have little or no confidence in the management of the economy, and so are acting defensively. When they aren't, they're drowning their sorrows.
- The government is contributing less to the growth of the economy
- Investment is falling.
- There remained no growth in April.
Good luck to anyone who says there is good news in this, because there is not, at least for anyone who thinks growth is the salvation to all our problems.
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The value of the ONS itself, as a contribution to worthwhile insight into the British economy in a usable timeframe that does not actually distort understanding of the economy: may itself be considered a mere rounding error.
If the ONS is incapable of doing better than that, then it should acknowledge it does not have the capacity to do the job required of it. The reason for that is the data it relies on, is no better than a leaky sieve.
Much to agree with
To rephrase. We produced estimates for two big numbers (using techniques which inevitably have statistical errors and most likely some known and unknown systematic errors). We then deducted one large estimated number from the other large estimated number (magnifying the errors) and give a result that looks accurate to one part in a thousand (0.1%).
The key word here is “estimate” which a dictionary might define as a calculated guess of a value that you do not know for certain. With emphasis on “guess”.
Well put