This council by-election result came in overnight:
I know all the issues about extrapolation, but what is fascinating is that the UKIP vote did not go to the Tories, at all. It all went to Labour and LibDems, in effect.
Has the link between the Tories and the far-right been made? I wonder.
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Or has the penny dropped that their problems are not caused by immigrants and that their vote for Brexit and UKIP was deluded and self-destructive.
Fingers crossed!
I’m not sure any of the UKIP vote went to Labour or Lib Dems
Looks like Labour actually lost 100 votes from 2019 (795 down to 709) and so did the Tories
Lib Dems didn’t run anyone in 2019 and it looks like they probably picked up 100 or so votes from the Greens as well as getting a couple of hundred from somewhere else (I would guess from Labour/Tories/non-voters rather than UKIP)
As you say the interesting thing is UKIP vote. It’s disappeared completely, likely staying at home.
I’d like to think that was the case, Richard, and maybe it is to a degree, but mostly I suspect it’s because to most people UKIP was synonymous with Brexit and now Brexit is ‘done’ what’s the point of UKIP. Either way it’s a good outcome.
PS. Could I just add on an entirely unrelated note that I strongly recommend the readers of your blog watch the ‘Storyville’ feature on BBC iPlayer, ‘Tango with Putin’. It follows the history of one of the only independent TV channels – Dozhd – in Russia – which incidentally was forced to close (not for the first time) by Putin on Wednesday. The documentary includes some very illuminating footage of Putin waxing on about the benefits of freedom of expression and discussion and denying any involvement in shutting such things down, while simultaneously the head of the channel had been told that they would be ‘ruined’ if they didn’t stop reporting facts. Of course, they’ve now been labelled a ‘foreign agent’ for reporting on the facts in Ukraine. Anyway, well worth watching.
Thanks Ivan
It’s difficult to say. The results are consistent with my belief that past for the UKIP and the Brexit parties was not primarily a matter of racism or xenophobia. Whatever the failings, of Labour and the Liberal Democrats may be they are hardly the natural home of hardcore racists or xenophobes.
The Tory share of the vote has hardly changed. I haven’t analysed the result, but at first glance it doesn’t look to be statistically significant. I have no idea how many hardcore racists or xenophobes there are in Redhill, but the most plausible explanation seems to be that they voted Tory before and they are voting Tory now.
The significance is the vote did not go to the Tories
I don’t think think you can conclude that without knowing how individuals voted. The Liberal Democrat share of the vote has increased significantly.
If this is because a lot of Tories switched to the Lib Dems and the Tory share is static because UKIP voters switched to the Tories then that would suggest that people may be making the link.
On the other hand, even if this were true, some may have switched because of things like partygate. In other words it may be because they see the current Tory leadership as dishonest and incompetent rather than far-right.
Even if you knew the figures for those who had remained voted Tory or UKIP in the past who are now voting Tory, presumably those who had made the link in the past are making it now, and those who had not are not. They would, of course, have different reasons for voting Tory but there is no way of knowing what those reasons are.
I think the most you can say is that the results are consistent with a large number of voters having made the link. Unfortuately they are also consistent with no voters having made the link and a very plausible narrative can be written in support of either hypothesis.
We have to hope so, but we did know already that it was mainly traditional Labour voters who turned to UKIP in the North.
And yet… look at the turnout, 18% (ditto Erdington 27%). Apathy plays into the hands of the right wing. Can we please have an opposition party that attacks the Tories and offers a clear alternative.
The number of votes cast altogether at Erdington was lower than the number of votes for Jack Dromey at the last election. Shows that they didn’t really want any of them. Fewer than 10,000 votes for labour in a constituency of 63,000.
The tory vote went down from 14,000 to 6,000
I wonder what PR would have done. Looking at the figures it would not have made any difference to first and second place, but it might have persuaded more of the voters to turn out and vote.
I agree with your warning about “over reading” a sample of one… but it is (at worst) harmless fun and may give us some clues.
The big surprise is the LibDem vote. I can’t believe any ‘kippers switched to the LibDems…. so where did it come from? There was no LibDem candidate in 2019 which complicates things.
My guess is that they got votes from “frustrated Libdems” that voted Con, Lab and Green in 2019 and are “returning home”. I suspect the UKIP vote went to Conservatives and Labour, with the switch to the Tories offset by Tories migrating to the LibDems.
But the conclusion is encouraging (a) even in Sunderland, a pro-EU party can do well (b) Shifting right has not enticed UKIP voters to the Tories – they have, perhaps, reverted to older voting patterns and this does not auger well for the Tories in Red Wall seats now that Brexit is not the “lead issue”. (c) Starmer may not have “star quality” but he is not the turn-off that Corbyn was to many voters.
Plenty to think about that may be encouraging in other words
If the UKIP vote went to Labour and the Lib/Dem and if you judge the Tory Party to be right wing then it surely holds that UKIP were not right wing after all or their votes wouldn’t have gone to Labour/Libs?
Something in your assertion clearly is not right
Or it shows your inability to understand politics
I’d bet on the latter
Compared with the 2019 election result in Erdington the LD voted has gone down from 3.7% to 1.0% and Green down from 1.8% to 1.4%, their votes probably going to Labour. Brexit vote in 2019 only 4.1% and down to 1.7% this time. Any thought of a big LD revival is not evident here. Labour is increasing slightly overall.
Surely the question that should be asked is why did extreme right-wing votes go to two parties that are politically central or politically left? Does the voter not see differing ideologies or are they just seeing a single ideology with a choice of leaders? More like Russia every day.
Most people have little political understanding
I think we need to be realistic about that
Had Hilary Clinton understood this simple fact she would not have called Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables”. Many had voted for Obama in the previous previous presidential election so her claim that they were all “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic” is simply not credible.
Many on the left seem to assume that everyone is as politically aware as they are, although ironically these same people will often speak of “consciousness raising”. It may be obvious to you that a candidate is a racist or a misogynist but it is unsafe to assume that everyone who votes for him is.
This is a problem for the left but you can do nothing about a problem unless you first acknowledge its existence.
Meanwhile those who organise campaigns for the right understand only too well the electorate’s political naivety and will exploiting it without compunction. An American who has organised focus groups for both the Democrats and the Republicans, once told me that the left are primarily interested in knowing voters’ political views and voting intentions whereas the right are more concerned with voters’ understanding of the issues and the circumstances in which they will cast a vote.
I’m not saying we should emulate the right when campaigning but if you don’t understand what is happening you are liable to hand them an electoral advantage on a plate.