Children are back at school in Scotland. And look what has happened to the number of reported Covid cases:
The number yesterday was about double the seven-day rolling average. That increase is staggering.
Of course, this does not prove causation. But if, as seems likely, the school holidays caused the tumble in the number of cases (they start school holidays at the end of June in Scotland) then it seems very likely that schools reopening is now causing the new spike.
If that is true then we are heading for this coming winter in a very bad place when it comes to Covid. I wish it were otherwise, but the widespread assumption that Covid is over - evidenced by the unmasked crowding in the House of Commons this week - is wrong. And that is really quite scary.
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I think the most recent finding is that those who have had two jabs are still found to be carrying the Delta variant?
If I have got that right and it is indeed the case I think that that is noteworthy. I am still convinced that Covid will just continue to find a way through the vaccines the longer it lives beside us.
It is the mutational robustness of Covid that seems to be overlooked.
So to me, you are right.
We need the data on vaccine effectiveness from the WHO on ALL varieties.
This is not being published or is obscure. ONS has been collecting blood data since April – where are the results?
Israel has announced that effectiveness is dropping.
A new monoclonal antibody drug has just been approved in the U.K. for these who get seriously ill with Covid. Does that mean vaccines become less the only vector to avoid illness?
The broken record of herd immunity is stuck , neither these pro or against the concept are able to move the needle from that groove.
What is a direct measure of protection?
What is a direct measure of being non infectious ?
What infact is the direct measure of immunity?
It certainly does not seem to be a certificate saying we have had double doses of what we have been given so that we can have gatherings and travel so beloved by some.
The only data that is being made available is that the non-previously infected / vaccinated yet, are getting ill. A
s it seems are these who have been double vaccinated.
I respect the work that Pagel and Gurdasani and Spieglehalter do and follow daily – but they don’t have the data either.
I want the data! Anyone have it?
Independent Sage does not – no hope for the rest of us
PSR, the vaccines were never said to stop infection, just the risk of serious complications and death. The latest data from the COVID Study App, which Richard has previously treated in far too dismissive terms shows that the effectiveness of all vaccines goes into decline after 4 months. Like it’s relative the common cold for which vaccines were never produced, COVID 19 is proving to be a fast evolving virus. It’s symptoms are also changing to greater similarity to the common cold: runny nose and headaches thought the government has been slow to recognise it. Hopefully it’s lethality is also attenuating with time. Richard is right about one thing, it’s not going away!
I have never argued with any of those suggestions
I believe that the virology sub group of SAGE came out with a risk assessment of various pathways of SAR-Cov2 mutations. Reduced severity of symptoms was not on the high probability list in the short term, I’m afraid, but a realistic possibility in the long term.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf
Phil
I understand that the vaccine does not stop infection – thank you – and that between carrying it and being made ill by it.
What stops the infection is stuff like isolation and distancing and ventilation and not going to large events. It’s the transference bit in the infection chain.
My point about mentioning vaccinated people carrying delta was that the need for these precautions is somehow being overlooked and forgotten about which can only lead to such infection and an over-reliance the vaccines and people’s willingness to have it.
But I stand by my point that if we tolerate such an organism in our midst, the risk is that it could mutate into something the vaccines cannot deal with.
When/if that point happens, then it could come at very high cost. And what if the reaction to this is as bad as our reaction the first time around – denial, reluctance, downplaying – giving our PPE supplies to others!!!
I think your risk appraisal is right
So too does Indpendent Sage
Some symptoms, such as coughing, promote contagion, however other reduced severity of other symptoms is an evolutionary advantage to a virus. The longer the infected person is active the more others they can infect. In the long term viruses do evolve to be less severe. However the key factor is the infectiousness of a strain as the more infectious strains will crowd out the less infectious. Moreover there is no guarantee that a mild version of the virus will not mutate into a more severe version at some time.p
The scene from the HoC was outrageous. So much for any sort of leadership. Especially notable was the difference between the 2 sides- typical right wing “liberty” idiots all unmasked. One can only hope the that it has repercussions for them such that they begin to learn some lessons.
It is unbelievable that we are 1 year on and still nothing done about ventilation in schools – will we get some outrage in the Mail/ Sun etc as the numbers soar in the autumn, and some mea culpa at their push for unmasking?
Agreed
“we are heading for this coming winter in a very bad place when it comes to Covid. I wish it were otherwise,”
No you don’t it is blatantly obvious from your extensive posts that you want the situation to get worse so you can use it as a political stick to beat the Tories and propose your “great reset”..
Sure I want a reset. The word very badly needs it.
Now, what do you want? And why?
Schools went back in Scotland on 18th August (source Scotborders.gov.uk)
You think that’s caused a spike in Covid a day later?
The return is phased in Scotland.
Oh, really? What date did school pupils first return in Scotland then? And where?
I can read the data
No doubt you can too
Some have been back for 9 days now
The excellent site http://www.travellingtabby.com, whose opening page gives you the option of Scotland-only data or UK data (which also splits down total data to the individual nations and gives international data too), shows that cases have risen rapidly this week in Scotland. The biggest rise in New Cases This Week per 100k Population is in the range 15 -19 years (580 per 100k) with the 20-24 years group (497 per 100k) in second place (they are currently in the middle of 2nd vaccinations roll-out). It looks like a mix of schools returning and the younger age groups being at the tail of the vaccinations queue and/or being more sceptical about vaccination.
I keep forgetting that website. His data visualisations are great. The “deaths by age group” graph caught my attention today.
New deaths this week in England are still largely in the 70+ age categories – the ones that have been “fully vaccinated” for months – particularly if you look at deaths per 100k population – but also some people in younger age groups, including 6 deaths of people this week in their 20s, 12 in their 30s and 22 in their 40s.
Believe it or not, in the last 18 months, COVID has killed approaching 1 in 20 of the people in England aged 90 or over, and 1 in 50 of people in their 80s. Carnage. 95k out of 115k deaths in England are people who were aged over 70. (Similar picture in Scotland – 7000 out of 8000 deaths of people aged 65 or older.)
Tragic, really, that the increased prevalence of infection in the last couple of months is still scything through the older cohorts.
We are running at well over 40,000 excess deaths a year now
As was said at Indepednent Sage today, does anyone recall when Chris Whitty said we’d be lucky if we got away with 20,000 deaths? Of all the estimates that looks like one of the worst now
Haven’t you predicted disaster at every stage of the unlocking? Didn’t you predict disaster because of the 12 week gap in vaccination?
You seem to predict disaster at every opportunity. Almost as if you are hoping for it. When the news is positive, you ignore it, when there is even the slightest change away from good news, out come the predictions of disaster. Clearly you are not an expert or even knowledgeable in these matters yet you denounce good statistics or news as false or manipulated and any bad stories, no matter from what source, are proclaimed as gospel.
Very sad.
I believe in what Danny Blanchflower calls the economics of walking about
I look at real world evidence to see what might happen in the economy
Covid evidence has consistently suggested things are worse than officialdom and economists say and I have been 100% consistently right to say so – although of course scale is sometimes hard to get right
It looks like things are much worse now than officialdom says
Experts I trust support that view
I note it because it has massive economic implications
In contrast, you come on here to spout dogmatic drivel that has always said Covid is not an issue. Tell that to the dead and those with long Covid
What drives your sociopathic (at best) tendencies?
Israel…
Indeed
What’s happening with hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland? That’s obviously the key. If those numbers don’t increase, will you be back on here to admit it was yet another baseless scare story you were spreading?
Talking of which, after all the scare stories you spread about how the 12 week gap in vaccinations was going to lead to a huge increase in deaths (‘democide’ you called it), shouldn’t you have the intellectual honesty to now admit you were wrong on that?
I wasn’t wrong in that
The government had to reduce it rapidly in the face of delta
“I wasn’t wrong in that..The government had to reduce it rapidly in the face of delta”
You were at arguing that increasing the gap between jabs reduced the effectiveness..it doesn’t. The Govt speeded up second jabs to get more people double jabbed in the face of the delta variant not because a shorter gap was more effective. Even in the face of clear evidence you manipulate the discussion.. no different from a typical politician I suppose.
If you can make sense of your argument good on you
It clearly supports my view
Unless there is a major increase in ventilation in schools, colleges, and workplaces, a return to 2m social distancing and maximum mask-wearing, Covid, whichever strain, will increase exponentially as it did in September 2020 with the premature full return to schools and offices.
You are almost certainly right
Unfortunately Bill I agree, next peak potentially at 3rd week of September. I don’t see a clear end to all of this, just the risk of being very ill once a year or more if I don’t avoid any risky behaviour (like meeting people). I’m old.
I miss, and will miss, my occasional hedonistic day out at rugby internationals especially against the old rival England. A lunch, a few pints, meeting old friends in very crowded spaces, a chin wag with anyone who cares and the game.
I can’t imagine when I will go back to a football match
Or a concert
And much more
It’s just too risky
And a large part of the population think that
Which is why economically this is far from over
“I can’t imagine when I will go back to a football match
Or a concert
And much more
It’s just too risky
And a large part of the population think that”
That’s fine. Stay at home if you want to – til the end of your days if need be.
But don’t expect those of us who are double vaccinated to do the same with our lives. I want to live, not just be alive.
And so you become a spreader of the virus – because your double jab does nothing to stop that
Do you want to make other people ill?
@ Richard,
It’s probably not quite true to say the vaccine does *nothing* to stop transmission of the virus. If it stops anyone infected from coughing that has to reduce its spread via aerosols.
This nature article supports this point with the qualification that the study was conducted prior to the emergence of the Delta variant. It could well be that the figure of “more than 80%” is lower for Delta but it unlikely to be zero.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z
The current data suggests minimal impact
I accept minimal ≠ none
But for practical purposes, it may not be much different
“And so you become a spreader of the virus – because your double jab does nothing to stop that”
Leaving aside the fact that what you wrote is incorrect (as Jim Clark pointed out), what is your proposal then? By your logic we’ll be locked down forever.
First Tony_B is absolutely right – the evidence that this is true is unambiguous.
Second, it means we do have to continue distancing measures.
Unless you want people to die, that is. It really is very straightforward.
So, tell us all, why do you want people to die? What is that about?
And why too do you want people to have long Covid?
What makes you a sociopath?
To all the rather rude people who come here (and you don’t have to come here you know if being more questioning of things frightens you somewhat) to pour scorn on what is noted, you do know that when we talk of ‘variants’ it is because there has been a MUTATION – a change- in the virus that has meant that it is now different to what is before?
Which means that Covid is adapting to change and is adaptable. That is because all it wants to do is reproduce and survive and in doing so its makes us sick and worse.
Which means that it might learn how to unlock the protections of those of us who have been vaccinated.
The question you should be asking is, how does any of the vaccine and current advice keep up with shape-changing organism like this and protect us adequately going forward?
This question seems lost on too many people. Covid is not yesterday; it is now and the future.
Do us a favour and try and get your small minds around that will you? Or just hang out with those that agree with you and stay away from here.
Oh – and good luck by the way.
People that don’t agree with you must have ‘small minds’?
You are simply following the approach of Richard Murphy to abuse anyone that dares to have a different opinion.
Good heavens – that’s your second identity here today with one gender change thrown in for good measure
My Dear Mr Lancaster
Today, I was reading a site that was saying that the Covid vaccinations contained microchips so that Jeff Bezos could control people so that he could get them to buy more on Amazon. So, people were being told not to have the vaccine on that basis. And some were taking this seriously. I kid you not.
There’s a lot crap out there Mr Lancaster – a lot of manipulation of misinformation. Now I’m not saying you’re in that league but I do not see how you can have an ‘opinion’ about Covid other than what I have stated or even what Richard has stated and other sensible folk here too.
That is to say that Covid kills people or makes them very unwell and leaves them like that for a very long time in many cases ( my brother has long Covid).
And that not only is it highly contagious but also adaptive and mutational. The vaccine has not stopped the mutational capacity of the virus. It has only dealt sufficiently with the virus as it was – not as it could be. It has protected us – but NOT changed the virus which by all accounts, can change itself.
Are you keeping up there, my good Mr Lancaster?
And that means that there is not potentially just one point or episode of ‘herd immunity’ but that there are many potential episodes if Covid mutates again and again on the horizon. And that is where this Government has put us – on the frontline of that journey, with DECREASING levels of risk management. Yes? And have the vaccines been upgraded at all? I’ve heard nothing about that. Deaths I’ve noted though have recently gone up.
Now, like all typical people who value their ‘freedom’ to have an opinion over facts I note that you have not debated or challenged the reasoning I and others have put forward.
So – there you go. Debate the facts Mr Lancaster.
Go on then.
Tell us all here why we are wrong to be concerned about lax standards of safety in the public realm, or the the coming winter and the NHS or this very clever but deadly virus that is living now amongst us, possibly growing stronger and changing.
Knock yourself out.
He can’t come back without some effort
I pretty confident he was not of the name he claimed
Unfortunately, vaccination is not a silver bullet of any sort for a very transmissible virus where the rate of community infection is very high. Rather, on one hand it tends to pressurise the virus into infecting the unvaccinated (now the young and children), those with weakened immune systems, those whose vaccination immunity is waning, and so on. On the other it mutates when a variant emerges that finds new routes to survival and replication. Especially when the mRNA shot was never designed to stop transmission and infection, only to reduce the severity of disease. It is time to treat the disease. There are many doctors around the world who have published their protocols for prevention and early treatment, mainly with readily available medications, and the sooner their success if recognised the sooner we may be able to move beyond the stranglehold of expensive novel therapies. Another example of over-complexification.
Anyone familiar with the Covid-related aftermath of the recent Boardmasters festival in Newquay, will surely agree with you that Covid is far from over. It’s not just news reports – I personally know, or know of, upwards of 30 people that have Covid right now following their attendance at this massively super-spreading event. Cram 50,000 mostly unvaccinated young people together in a field during a pandemic and see what happens? A Covid field day. One could hardly dream up a better scenario for ‘letting it rip’! But there may be even more ripping at Reading festival next weekend (100,000+ tickets sold)…..
And now we have the Leeds and Reading festivals……
What is the evidence from the events that have been held so far? Has much been published?
Reports like this – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/23/what-does-getting-covid-feel-like-for-the-fully-vaccinated – demonstrate eloquently that those who are double vaccinated can and do still catch the virus and fall ill, and those who show a negative lateral flow test may still have the virus. It is a red light test that reveals some asymptomatic cases, not a green light test that demonstrates freedom from infection. People in either group may pass it on to others. It becomes a lottery.
Since that peak and fall in July, cases and hospitalisations have been on upward trend again since the end of July. Deaths continue to increase, now at or approaching 100 per day. I expect we will shortly see the impact of full football stadiums in the last couple of weeks. And it is the still the summer, with most of the schools have not gone back yet.
Agreed Andrew