I share another tweet I have posted this morning:
Why is it that the NHS is at breaking point before a Covid surge? Staffing, funding, people finally presenting with serious pathology post-Covid, people on waiting lists collapsing, or long Covid? I don't know, but I think we should be told. https://t.co/B1kpvfvhlE
— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) June 20, 2021
I have not seen this story anywhere but in The Independent (whose health correspondent, Shaun Lintern, is excellent).
I do not know why the NHS is already facing an A&E crisis before the Covid next wave takes off, and in the height of summer, but it would seem as though something is very wrong indeed with healthcare in the UK if this is the case.
We may have a very dark few months ahead.
And when it is over the question has to be asked as to how we can have an NHS fit for purpose again.
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I’d guess a factor is the difficulty in getting GP appointments.
The larger crisis, I would suspect, will be healthcare professionals leaving after the extraordinary stress they’ve faced for the last 15 months.
You’ll recall the Conservative promise of 50,000 more nurses which included 31,000 new nurses and retaining 19,000 existing nurses who would otherwise have left. I wonder how they are getting on with that.
And the 40 new hospitals?
Inflation 2010 to 2019 = approx. 24.7% + population growth 2010 to 2018, 3.7 million = 5.9%. Compound the two = 32.06%.
DHSC Budget in 2009/10 was £116.8 billion; therefore expenditure in 2019 should have been an absolute minimum of £154.37 billion to just stand still with 2010, without accounting for privatisation, an aging population, advances in medical science and increases to match other comparable countries.
Actual budget for 2018/19 was £132.9 billion a minimum £21.47 billion underfunded in that year alone. Compounding the savings (cuts) over10 years with a lack of training / education quite easily explains the the dire situation faced by the NHS.
@johnlewis:
Your figures appear woefully inaccurate:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-budget
To summarise:
2009/10 spending (adjusted to 2020/21 prices) = £126.1bn
2019/20 spending (adjusted to 20/21 prices) = £148.7bn (an 18% increase in real terms)
PLUS an additional £63.4bn COVID spending.
Perhaps you need to review your sources!
No, but in real terms
You ignore population change and GDP
Just too simple to stare it as you do. A bit trope like, even
My figures appear ‘conservative’
Inflation 09/2009 to 09/2020 = +36.69%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/chaw/mm23
Population 2009 to 2020 = +7.29%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/timeseries/ukpop/pop
Inflation + Population growth compounded = 46.65%
Your 2009/10 spending (adjusted to 2020/21 prices) = £126.1bn
Therefore to be comparable the 2019/20 budget would need to be £184.93 rather than the paltry £148.7bn (which you claim to be an 18% increase in real terms).
What ever way you look at the figures they demonstrate that since 2010 the NHS has been grotesquely under funded.
Because the intent is still to break the system in order to justify Tory policy changes and greater private sector involvement and that has never changed – that’s why. The Tories are just extremists and such people don’t let pandemics and even excellent personal care for Covid get in the way of objectives that of course will be self enriching for the party, its members and more importantly its supporters.
It looks like both Richard Murphy and John Lewis don’t understand what ‘in real terms’ means.
Never mind.
We did
Real terms means end delivery to real peiopole
The rest is just error
No Richard, ‘in real terms’ is an objective, economic phrase, used to mean adjusted for inflation.
This is pretty basic stuff.
And meaningless unless adjusted as noted
Stop wasting my time
We dont seem to look at many of the ‘drivers’ that lead to many people being in A&E
Poor housing, inadequate Social Care, and of course Drink and Drugs.
Curbing alcohol use through amongst other things Tax would bring quick wins in many areas at no cost to the public purse but nobody is brave enough to do it.
Call it poverty
Poverty of people
Poverty of government thinking
“ Johnson says it’s ‘looking good’ for lifting restrictions on 19 July”
Un******* believable!
I mean obviously that means for sure it’s not. But more people are going to die and our PM is not being called out for it, but just reverently reported by the MSM.
The outbreak in Cornwall is obviously to do with G7. Probably down to all the police brought in – including cruise ship full from all over the country. They had a wail of a time. DunGroanin including drunken fights and leery behaviour with policewomen. My sources said other police had to be brought in to keep order!
Than they have all gone home taking their hangovers and infections with them.
Curse them.
Some forecasters are saying that hospitalisations may only be 5,000 a week now…but the main person saying so is a pure mathematician and not an epidemiologist