I just noticed this in the Observer. It lists Covid-19 cases by local authority in England alone. I have taken all with death rates over 400 per 100,000 of population:
The north is being hit hard.
As are poorer areas.
Covid-19 is not only about inequality. But it certainly is in part.
And that matters when we think about the post-Covid society that we want.
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You may want to amend “ power £100,000 of population”. Bleeding autocorrect
Indeed….
funny you should be posting on this,
I’ve just discovered the youtube channel for Dr John Campbell who’s been doing educational vids for some time and of late been focusing on corona,
he’s just published a vid on vit D, it’s recognised that vit D has a big impact on respiratory diseases caused by viruses,
it’s also recognised that at more northerly latitudes even white skinned people struggle to make enough vit D
the vid I’ll link includes appraisal of some research from Stockholm about the disproportionate number of Somali immigrants catching and dying of corona,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bga_qG30JyY
so this phenomena may well have a socio-economic dimension but it may also be related to our northerly latitude and amplified for those of us with varying degrees of darker skin,
I’ve been taking 50 micro grams of vit. D daily since this whole corona thing kicked off.
I agree that vitamin D is highly likely to be a significant factor. Vitamin D level is very much convoluted with socio-economic and cultural factors. BAME people are dying at a higher rate due to covid possibly with vitamin D level as a contributory factor. The chief medical officers need to state that there IS enough evidence that vitamin D is important and in particular advise people with darker skin to boost their vitamin D either through sunlight or supplements or diet. There is nothing racist about this. It is just biology. The closer you are to the poles the less vitamin D you can make naturally in your skin per hour of sunlight exposure and the darker your skin the longer it takes to make vitamin D. Vitamin D has been shown to be highly beneficial in reducing the effect of respiratory tract infections. See the papers referenced by Dr John Campbell on youtube.
Indeed. As the good Doctor points out: the first 10 doctors to die from Covid-19 were all from BAME backgrounds. I, also, supplement with Vit D3 (10000iu daily).
Should we consider the age profile? ONS provides age pyramids for the relevant areas, for example :
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/ukpopulationpyramidinteractive/2020-01-08
Using 2018 data there are some strange results, for example Brent seems to have significantly lower numbers of elderly when compared with England as a whole. For Sunderland and other northern areas, the elderly parts of the pyramid seem quite close to the England pyramid, though there can be significant increases in the late 50, 60’s age groups.
This suggests to me that using statistics to determine any underlying reason will be difficult.
Brent has a high concentration of old people’s homes, I am told by those who should know
I can explain that one
Isn’t it the case that the poor are hardest hit in so many metrics: the worst housing, the worst energy security, the worst access to convenient transport solutions, the worst paid, most insecure, unappealing (to many richer folk) jobs, the worst educational attainment, the worst health outcomes, the worst nutrition, the least access to outdoor spaces, the least able to have a decent holiday.
A health report in Scotland found that, due to social inequalities, “Health inequalities represent thousands of unnecessary premature deaths every year in Scotland, and for men in the most deprived areas nearly 25 fewer years spent in ‘good health’ and 22 years for women.
The “post-Covid society” must surely tackle these inequalities as part of any Green New Deal.
Indeed
It is why some epidemiologists are also already claiming Covid 19 is not causing the deaths
Overall age profile is likely to be older and years of poor diet: http://www.progressivepulse.org/health/fatstock-for-slaughter
“I have taken all with death rates over 400 per 100,000 of population:”
The data suggests that you have conflated death rates with case rates. Why do you do this sort of thing to yourself?
Because if you have not noticed the two are correlated
It is really rather basic to ignore that
And for the record, the ratio of deaths to cases is higher in poorer areas
Again, maybe you haven’t noticed?
Like other trolls of your persuasion?
We’ll need the epidemiologists to do the proper work in due time, but I have no doubt the death statistics will prove an inequality element, along with an age element, a prior illness element, a gender element, and a race element.
But “I have taken all with death rates over 400 per 100,000 of population”.
What, over 2,000 people in Sheffield (0.4% of its 500,000 population) have died of coronavirus? Are you sure?
That is cases – and I did state that incorrectly
But if course cases and deaths are highly correlated
I think many epidemiologists think we may still see 1% of the population due from this
Others I also know think that far too high
The Guardian has a synopsis of and ONS report on which jobs present most danger from Covid-19. No surprises there. See 11.24 on the timeline: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/11/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-to-give-more-detail-on-lockdown-changes?page=with:block-5eb922968f0846f9cd5560d0#block-5eb922968f0846f9cd5560d0
Also Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has a similar take on the class aspect: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/05/boris-johnson-has-put-more-workers-increased-risk-will-public-approve
Both noted
The ONBSdata is chilling
At last, some proper data with 95% (roughly 2-sigma) confidence intervals.
Unsurprisingly middle class professionals working at home are ok. The rates for men in “elementary occupations” particularly security and “process plant”, but also factory work, construction, and bus and taxi drivers, are concerning, and more so for both sexes in social care occupations. Women in other occupations seem to be in line with the averages (which will drop a bit if you exclude the worst ones, showing where the real “normal” is.)
Interesting that health care workers (as distinct from social care workers) are also in line with the averages, but social care is a disaster area.
Is there any good research yet explaining why men, and people of colour, do so much worse?
Not that I have seen…