I have tried to make sense of Boris Johnson's latest Brexit proposal. I have read the documents that have been issued. And like those who have done so in the EU, I am bewildered.
When the aim was no border in Ireland, Johnson has delivered one. And it will not work. Whilst the compliant will submit to the proposals the whole reason for border checks is that we know there are those who will cheat. Johnson's plan for checks away from the border provides no mechanism to deal for those who will flout the border for gain. At which point the plan, necessarily, fails. And that's before the politics are considered.
But not content with one border, Johnson has opted for two. The Customs border is in Ireland. The Single Market border is in the Irish Sea. The DUP have bought that idea. You might say, so what? It's very obviously where a border, if a border there has to be, was necessarily going to be located all along. But having two borders? What is the sense in that?
And then the DUP are given what is, in effect, a veto if only Stormont can be revived. Of all the bizarre ideas in a bizarre proposal this one is extraordinary. A pro-Brexit party reflecting one half at most of the community of Northern Ireland, where 60% voted to Remain, is not the organisation to give a veto to if harmony is sought, as is the plan for Northern Ireland.
This plan is a non-starter. If Brexit is to be done then a border in the Irish Sea is the only answer. The DUP and Tories have taken a step towards that. But a tiny one in a fashion that makes a mockery of honest intent.
I think we are no nearer a solution today than we have ever been. And maybe, given timescales, matters are worse.
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It’s not clear to me whether the intention is to busk some sort of deal (which leaves intractable problems further down the road to be sorted later) or to present an option designed to be rejected (by the EU and our own Parliament).
Either way he’s continuing to play a dangerous game…….
It may not be honest, but the intent is to win the next general election regardless of the circumstances at the time.
The EU simply can’t accept what the Government has proposed. And there appears to be little scope to tweak the proposals to make them acceptable. But the EU will probably go through the motions of intensive negotiation in the lead up to the Council summit on 17/18 Oct. We’re in to blame game territory now.
The odds are that no agreement will emerge and the Benn-Burt Act will kick in. However, the Government will refuse to comply and it will have to be tested in the Courts. Cabinet members such as Hancock and Ress-Mogg have made this clear in various media interviews.
However, one should not assume that the Supreme Court, assuming it will be heard promptly by this court, will decide against the Government. There is a huge volume of precedent and jurisprudence that suggests that governments should be unfettered in their negotiations with foreign powers. They may seek guidance and direction from Parliament. But they are not required to do so. There is a strong case for asserting that Parliament does not have the right to impose constraints or seek to pre-determine certain outcomes when a Government is engaged in negotiations of this nature. Only the outcome of the negotiations requires Parliamentary ratification.
So the EU cannot be sure that a rejection of the latest Government proposals leading to an application of the provisions of the Benn-Burt Act will result in an automatic Government request for an extension that will be upheld by the Courts. The Government wants to push this right down to the wire in the hope of forcing concessions from the EU. Although the EU’s support for Ireland, the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and the legal integrity of the customs union and the single market has appeared unbreachable, I wouldn’t rule out a bit of last-minute manoeuvring from some EU capitals.
However, if the Court finds against the Government and an extension is requested and, presumably, granted, the PM can go to the country saying that remoaner MPs, the courts and the elites prevented him from delivering Brexit when he promised it – and he could win a whopping majority.
In both cases the PM’s political and electoral position is strengthened – and that’s the real intent of his and Dominic Cummings’ machinations.
I think Jo Maugham might disagree …..
I’m quite sure Jolyon Maugham would disagree. And I suspect the counter-arguments he (and others) will deploy, if or when the courts hear the case, might be sufficient to sway the decision. I am simply counselling caution. It may not be as cut and dried as many people seem to think. And there are other factors. For example, the courts may choose not to get involved in the outcome of manoeuvrings of parliamentary factions.
And they may consider a further issue. The Executive is a creature of Parliament; but it is not its plaything. An unintended effect of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act (highlighted in this instance) is that Parliament can keep a government, that does not command a majority in the Commons, in office against its will and prevent it from seeking a public mandate. And, with the support of the Lords, it can enact legislation to compel the government to do things it does not wish to do. This is very much uncharted territory.
I find it very hard to think the Courts will let a government do a thing that has been specifically legislated on to prevent it happening
It seems to me that the blame game being set up is not only targeted at the EU but also Eire.
I wonder how much the DUP’s bung was this time? Given that Stormont is stalled, how can we even be talking to the DUP alone and not talking and debating about this in Stormont?
This is all kinds of wrong.
This is not democracy – it’s demon-ocracy – demonising others to cover your tracks.
Indeed, this is just setting everyone else up to take the blame for Johnson’s shortcomings. Surfing on the resulting sympathy, he’ll no doubt be trying ASAP for an election, one we must hope he doesn’t win.
I know it’s so frustrating but applying logic / critical thinking to the current political rhetoric both here and in the US will only add to the frustration. Which is exactly what it’s designed to do. The sole objective of both Trump and Johnson is to win their forthcoming elections – whatever it takes. Although their strategies and tactics are increasingly well documented by social psychologists & political analysts (sorry – too pressed to give references but Google is at one’s service) supporters and critics alike are lured into their dialectical trap. As anger and confusion are ramped up, Trump & Johnson know exactly how to frame their ‘offer’ in a language that will probably convince enough voters to secure their election. Well, less sure about Trump these days, but I’d bet on Johnson staying in Downing Street for another 5 years. Amygdala hijack rules OK!
I am hoping not
But without strong degrees of confidence
I think your point – that Cummings, Bannon, Trump ‘n’ Johnson are deliberately going against reasonableness KNOWING that their opponents’ attempt to use reason and logic will only frustrate them and their ability to counter them – is exactly the point. Surprisingly, the strategy is recognised as being used in neoliberalRussia where Putin is its key beneficiary. On a lesser scale, Erdogan, Orban, Bolsonaro, Prayuth Chan-ocha, Netanyahu, but more correctly, the body Likud, Trump and, of course, Boris Johnson are using this neo-fascist (referred to as ‘neo-fascist’) technique very successfully
As a democrat and a socialist, I have to hope that although this deliberate misinformation and disorientation produces lots of noise and confusion (especially where sincere Euroscepticism is exploited by the free-press and notional state broadcaster loyal to the large ‘c’ conservatives), and although this noise is disorientating, the supremacy of reason means that this technique cannot succeed in the face of organised and disciplined resistance. Never before 2015 did Labour have a leader who could harness and lead such a oppositional resistance, but I hope it currently has.
Its what the Soviet Union must have looked like in its late stages.
Everyone knew it was all nonsense and propoganda and everyone laughed at it.
But things somehow carried on with everyone knowing its still nonsense.
“Honest intent” is the key here.
Eu withdrawal aside, the only way I can make sense of all political economy since May 1979 is to recognise that ‘honest intent’, although a basic marker of decency and truthfulness, s not actually practical for Thatcher and the numerous children-of PMs since.
The free-market ideologues would never have been able to sell 90% of all the public land owned by the government in 1979 if they’d admitted that their intent was simply to transfer ownership from the people to the private sector (and, in doing, benefitting their sponsors, speculators and Capital-ists and embed a neoliberal hegemony) Instead they were “economical with the truth” and misrepresented their intent to us. They even ran ‘right to buy’ to let their vehement attack on the public sector “benefit” some of the little people so that they didn’t object when they eventually worked out most of the grotesquely-large benefit went to the notional 1% (actually the 0.001%)
No, Tories and their centrist admirers are downright liars. Whatever they tell me, I look for the ulterior motive to work out what the real situation they’re addressing might be.
Apologies for being pedantic. Éire is the name for Ireland in the first official language (Irish or Gaeilge); Ireland is the name used in the second official language (English). Between 1938 and 1998 UK governments refused to accept the name Ireland in any offcial context and insisted on using Éire. It was usually applied in a sneering manner. Ironically, the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement was the first instance of the UK government finally agreeing to use Ireland – and the sneers were somewhat suppressed.
I did wonder whether to edit it….
I did wonder whether to edit it…. [Eire. Ireland]
This seems to be a mini diplomatic minefield at present. I read, recently, someone explaining why ‘Ireland’ is correct. (As in respectful, preferred and polite etc) I have no idea how sensitive an issue this is in the two Irelands.
We mainlanders may be in for a culture shock after Brexit when we suddenly discover our Armani suit comes with a vest and pants (with suspenders to hold them up). We’ve long been accustomed to having the whip hand in cultural imperialism.
think everything Boris (and thus Cummings) has done so far is with one aim — to win the next election that will have to come one way or another. Even if Parliament forces another A50 extension there will be an election fairly soon after, has to be, the Remain faction in Parliament can only agree on not wanting a No Deal, but not what they do actually want.
So the rampant electioneering (spending on this that and the other) is the first part of that strategy, followed by the ‘People vs Parliament/Courts’ shenigans of the prorogation, which either was going to give Boris the power to prorogue Parliament and force Brexit, or it was going to pit him against a Remain Rump Parliament and the Courts, all of which are good for PR with an electorate that hates insiders and Establishments right now.
Now we have the WA Mk2 plan, which again is a win win for Boris, if the EU accepts it, that puts HUGE pressure on the Remain side to vote for it, or the EU throws it out, in which case come the election Boris can say ‘Well I tried, I made a decent proposal and the EU were having none of it, so No Deal its got to be’. And if Parliament do have to vote on Boris’s WA Mk2 thats another win win — they either vote it through, or stymie ANOTHER version of Brexit, with the resulting bad press for the Remain parties.
So all of the governments actions to date have only 2 outcomes, either we get Brexit now, or Boris’s Tory party get painted as ‘The Brexit Party’ for the looming election, which helps position the Tories as the best recipients of the 17.4m Brexit votes. I think Cummings has decided that an election and new Parliament is going to decide Brexit, not the current Parliament, and thus everything has been aimed at positioning the Tories best for that battle. If by some stroke of luck they get it early, then thats a bonus, but a GE showdown is the most likely endgame for this process.
“everything Boris (and thus Cummings) has done so far is with one aim — to win the next election”.
Yes Paul Simenon, you’re right, and vis-a-vis UK’s EU withdrawal, nothing that Boris J is proposing is trying to find an acceptable agreement to achieve this and to re-assure those who’d rather it was not happening (almost certainly a significant majority by now).
The ‘once in a lifetime opportunity’ to change our relationship with the EU IS deliberately being squandered by the Cummings-Johnson management of the Conservative Party. Near-constant dogwhistles ensuring that the nation remains divided and (their side at least) enthusiastically passionate. A sudden commitments by austerians to spend money. Yes, the right-wing is preparing for an election.
I ask myself, why is this so? Maybe something to do with the paradigm-shift or tide change that Corbyn’s ascendency embodies and maybe anticipated.
I say ‘anticipate’ but not even the most astute and worldly-wise person expected the implosion of the Conservative party to be played so recklessly by them and to put the country and its operation into such a desperate, dire predicament.
Katy Hayward is not impressed with Boris Cummings’ new cunning plan. That should ring alarm bells, for anybody who cares about Ireland. Which naturally excludes most of those gung-ho for Brexit who don’t seem to give a toss.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/03/northern-ireland-border-brexit-boris-johnson?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0Jlc3RPZkd1YXJkaWFuT3BpbmlvblVLLTE5MTAwMw%3D%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BestOfGuardianOpinionUK&CMP=opinionuk_email
Indeed….