This was on the BBC web site on December 8 when the agreement to permit Brexit talks with the EU was reached:
We now know that the UK will not be honouring this agreement. The UK says it will not join any customs union. A hard Irish border is, then, inevitable.
I am not sure why the EU is still in talks in that case. It seems illogical for it to be so. Britain has broken its word. There is no Irish deal. So what can there be to discuss in that case?
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I think we can guarantee that the EU will support Ireland and insist on a boderless Ireland.
This is fudge and lying by the UK in order to keep the Tory party together for as long as possible – there are no preparations for physical borders either on the Irish border or in UK ports. Indeed in Dover where space is short an additional lorry park has recently failed as no environmental assessment was carried out!
https://www.returnloads.net/news/kent-lorry-park-plans-scrapped/
We are probably coming up for a UK govt blame game as to why we cannot leave with a hard Brexit.
You may well be right
Peter May is obviously right therefore “Hard Brexit” is a bit of bollocks that was effectively cast aside when the Irish border agreement was signed. PM, T. May (originally a Remainer) and her team would have been quite aware of that at the time.
This point has (more or less) been brought up by yourself and various commenters on this blog before. It strikes me as odd that the would-be hard-brexiteers and some of their deeply concerned opponents are taking so long to clue on to this fact.
Things are becoming rather awkward and will become more so as reality slowly dawns on the Hard Brexit mob. In a previous post Tony B offered example of desperate but optimistic(?) delusion:
[1] https://leave.eu/ukip-lets-end-party-now/
[2] http://www.westmonster.com/banks-we-could-have-clear-majority-for-real-brexit-in-tory-party-if-ukip-supporters-join/#.WmuHupUMvaU.twitter
As you imply it’s now impossible for it to be like the one between Sweden and Norway, and the suggested model of it being like a toll bridge with ANPR and pay before you go, or within a day following is deader than Otto von Bismarck. So the Republic is now compelled to erect a hard border. A dreadful outcome.
Well therein lies the problem for the EU. A hard border in Ireland is impossible. The British with 70,000 troops couldn’t close it, the people are 100% Irish not British and will not recognize or obey it, it runs through people’s houses, in a number of cases separating kitchens from dining rooms, the Norway /Sweden border has one crossing per 100 kms in Ireland one crossing per kilometer, in fact there are 3 times as many crossings in Ireland as all other EU external crossings from the Arctic to the Bosphorus combined, and being kept open was a condition of the Good Friday Agreement. So it looks like the EU will have a 500km hole in the Customs Union…or it goes on the Irish Sea. Worst case The EU will have to do a deal to keep the North in the Single Market for companies in the North under a license scheme or something because closing it is absolutely impossible -unless Kim Jong ends the North Korean Army.
Ohh no no…the British must be politely ‘shown the instruments’ in medieval parlance. If there is a hard border and they break their word they must be shown in detail…empty shelves in shops, tens of thousands laid of as production line shut down, grounded aircraft through lack of flight agreements x100….and then allowed to consider their response. The DUP under the bus or their whole economy. The British will be honouring their signature or they will be Eritrea. Such is the consequence when delusion meets reality.
Johnito, we (Irish) wouldn’t wish it on our worst enemy but you are right and you can see why, apart from the trade and prosperity advantages, Ireland will stay in the EU.
We are, to borrow a phrase, stronger, safer, and better off–and cannot be bullied by the British any longer. Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit and could easily be thrown under the bus by the EU (if it cared to discard one its success stories, two if one counts its vital contribution to peace NI). That it will not be is in my book a huge advert for the advantages of membership. The collective acts as a constraint on the abuse of power.
Well said
Completely agree.
Where does this now leave the DUP and in particular its propping up of the Tories at Westminster? Are they going to be complicit in wrecking of the Good Friday Agreement by putting the Tories’ interests ahead of Irish interests? If not, are they going to walk away from their agreement with the Tories and precipitate the fall of the UK Government? How much of the £1b promised by the Tories to the DUP has already been paid? Scotland will be watching with great interest.
There are so many questions needing answers…..
@Paul – I take your points regarding the peace process, but seriously, what is it about Ireland’s recent performance that you’d want to hold it up as a ‘success’ for the EU? Ravaged by austeritywith national accounts figures only looking promising due to chronic tax-abuse, continued excessive domestic borrowing, and an ongoing exodus of young talent to the rest of the EU.
Heaven help the less successful countries.
AdrianD says:
” what is it about [name of country]’s recent performance that you’d want to hold it up as a ‘success’ [..]Ravaged by austerity with national accounts figures only looking promising due to chronic tax-abuse, continued excessive domestic borrowing, and an ongoing exodus of young talent to the rest of the EU.”
Which country is this you’re describing, Adrian ?
Pants on fire ?
How about:
“Guarantee that there will be “no hard border” between … [England and France]….
and that the “constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom” will be maintained.”
It makes as much sense.
Ireland is the big issue (and presumably Gibraltar represents a smaller version) and those who don’t know the island have not paid it sufficient consideration. I hope that the Ireland challenge wrecks Brexit.
It’s a matter of who blinks first, the UK talks about technology as a solution, David Davis keeps comparing the Ireland border to Detroit, which is ridiculous. May is making the border out to be the EUs problem rather than ours, brexiters will see any border as punishment which will confirm their decision to leave. The dup views are irrelevant as we revert to no deal automatically
Maybe Theresa May has privately said to Barnier et al that she is only saying the UK will not join any customs union to pacify her Ukippy fruitcake faction in the Tory party, and that she doesn’t really mean it.
Sorry, I know that sounds a bit juvenile, but seriously – what other explanation can there be?
Roughly sounds and looks right.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
Embarrassing.
My family and I are going to Germany for our hols this year and we are all learning German so that no one knows that we are from this pathetic and silly little country that we have become.
or cultivate an Irish accent.
Begorrah Ian lad!
It’d be a great idea you have there now!
BTW Ian – which accent would you recommend? Northern or Southern? I can do both but I find the gentleness of the southern accent easier cope with over long periods of time.
And when I do the northern version, the odd Ian Paisley type characteristic creeps in which might be counter productive!
South
And the west at that!
A sort of Fawlty Towers in reverse (“don’t mention the Brexit”).
Pilgrim, the “NO SURRENDER!!!” phrase is coming back into use as the Irish border issue threatens Brexit.
It seems to me the Tories are knowingly asking for the impossible in order to blame Brussels when/if we crash out without a deal.
They have no idea how to solve the Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland conundrum, they put that ball at Barnier’s feet, and wait for “an offer”.
Meanwhile the DUP is still useful in Westminster, May still needs their votes.
Brussels have always said they won’t let down the Irish, quite loud and clear, so now we wait for them to honour their promise.
And we sit on our hands because we haven’t a clue.
And frankly, the Irish question is a bother too far.
We’d have to ask experts etc…Those are in very short supply in May’s government, besides, they’re not to be trusted, apparently.
Every time I see Barnier’s face at the end of a meeting with May or David Davies, I wonder how he keeps that face straight. I can see fumes coming out of his ears though.
I believe the Brexiteers are still looking for a “bespoke agreement”.
I think it is beyond their comprehension that the EU27 would choose to forgo the UK trade and the £10B contribution in preference to the survival of the European Union itself.
Either that or they cannot see any way out of the mess they have created without totally trashing any future careers.
I have often posited that May has been put in place as PM by the Bilderburg group or like to undermine brexit and leave us still in the EU
The brexiteers say the Irish problem is easily solvable by modern technology. I do wish one of them would comment here because just us all agreeing with Richard about this is not really getting us anywhere.
I am not deleting anything on that…
Regarding the frequent refrain about technology providing a magic solution – technology can frequently allow things to be done in radically different ways. However it would be usual at this stage of a “project” to know exactly what that meant (i.e. the specific challenges that will be overcome, the required hardware, manual parts of the process, required software etc). From my experience the casual bandying around of “technology” as an answer to unformulated problems/poorly designed processes is normally the precursor to a lot of wasted money or serious disappointment (or both)!
There was even a suggestion at one time that this problem was going to be solved in part by drones (I think we can tell what present someone had received for Christmas)!!!
Under the terms of Article 50 the EU is “obliged” to try and negotiate a withdrawal agreement. They have no choice.
https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/
One thing to remember on our side is hmrcs statement at committee that they believe they can obtain a derogation for the Irish border as a ‘local economy’ and rely heavily on technology.
I think there is as much chance of that as there is of Ipswich Town winning the Premier League next season. It’s technically possible, but…..
What would it mean for the EU to pull out of the talks?
Hard Brexit
But they are legally duty bound to keep trying although if I was them I would go back to stage one now
Most of the Brexiteers I know are some kind of free-trade fanatics. They would want tariff free imports from the EU ( on the grounds that tariffs help businesses and harm consumers), and so would have no desire for either customs and passport controls at the Irish border; this after all was the arrangement from 1922 to date. However, if the EU wants controls on the Irish side of the border, that of course is entirely up to them, though it would put Mr Varadkar in an awkward spot!
And it breaches the UK”s commitments made in December
You also ignore the fact that borders are not just about tariffs and are also about compliance