This is the key chart in this morning's employment statistics:
Note that right hand end: there is a sharp downward trend in wage change, which means that, once again, they are below CPI.
But then note that this is bound to massively overstate the real situation. Firstly, this data excludes the earnings of the self employed. Second, note that 42% of all new 'jobs' in the last year were for self employed people who now make up 14.9% of the supposed workforce. Third, note that this is the trend in the earnings of the self employed over the last few years based on my research:
I am of course aware that the data is out of date, but the trend is very strong, it is the most up to date data we have and the economy since 2010-11 has hardly been buoyant.
Add it all up and I think that average earnings are highly likely to be falling. As I have already shown, that is definitely true for women. I suspect it is for men too.
Let's not accept these absurd statistics as the truth. They clearly are not.
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I suspect you are downgrading the economy on political grounds. We now have considerable growth in the UK, just run a UK company and see how well its going.
It is very clearly not going
Except by exploiting labour
I think your figures are likely accurate Richard, as inequality will be restraining wages for most. In such an unequal country, ‘average’ pay can be increasing, driven by a healthy rise in incomes for the top 10%, whilst median pay, and the pay of the majority falls.
Precisely
Most people would regard chart 4 as the key chart with a major rise in full-time male employment compared to a relatively tiny rise in part-time employment.
Employment rose 2.6% year-on-year and unemployment declined 13.8% year-on-year
Average earning are more than four times the highest rate for JSA so a rise, even of only 0.7% (or 0.9% if one excludes the distortion from delayed payment of bonuses) compared to a CPI rise of 1.9% in average earnings means that the aggregate of those *now* in employment are at least 0.8% better off in “real” (inflation-adjusted terms)than a year ago.
You assume new jobs are paid average wages
That’s a massive assumption on your part
And almost certainly wildly inaccurate
NO, of course I do not. My wife keeps saying “Not Stupid Yet”.
I am comparing aggregate earnings which is total in work times average earnings with (total in work last year times average earnings last year plus those now in work who were not times maximum JSA last year), and this shows an increase of 2.7% – so after a CPI increase of 1.9% they must be at least 0.8% better off.
If some of them were young single adults, so getting less than the maximum JSA e.g. 56.80 instead of the 112.55 that I am generously assuming then the improvement is more than 0.8%.
I am *never* wildly inaccurate.
OK
But that was not obvious from your previous comment
Sorry, I didn’t think I needed to “show my working” to you – I assumed that you would deduce it but you were probably a bit rushed.
I strongly suspect most of those now entering employment are taking jobs that were previously outsourced to China and other low-wage economies and pay significantly below average. Every one who does so reduces, minutely, the average wage but benefits from his/her job.
I usually have seconds to review these comments – it has to fit into my working day
MORE “Lies,Damn Lies, albeit from the Treasury this time – Endemic acroos the Coalition
“Lies,Damn Lies, IDS and The DWP; STOP Spinning Statistics” #ImpeachDWP #NOWPetition http://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/david-cameron-lies-damn-lies-ids-and-the-dwp-stop-spinning-statistics-impeachdwp-nowpetition
¨I strongly suspect most of those now entering employment are taking jobs that were previously outsourced to China and other low-wage economies and pay significantly below average¨
Doubtful. I see no trend in returning production to UK from China. For a start the infrastructure does not exist. And a shift in production will move to low-cost countries, and the EU block of countries fails to fit-in with that. For a start, energy costs are higher, much higher. Even Germany is starting to shift production abroad….funnily enough, to the USA in their case, where energy costs are a third of Germanies ($0.35/KWH v $0.12/KWH)(China=$0.08/KWH)
Note that moving production to countries because of skills availability is now not an option. Automation has progressed rapidly. The twin advantages of all production capability in the same area and low energy costs are not available in the UK, or in the EU as a whole.
A look at the rapid rise in welfare benefits paid to those employed shows part of the reason for the increase in pow-pay jobs….the burden of wages is, in part, shifted to the general taxpayer.
Just look at housing benefit claims: http://i61.tinypic.com/qxmfew.jpg
A rise in those employed delivering fast-food (on invalid vehicle insurance) is not an economic benefit to anyone.
Just the same as a rise in those self-employed, but not self-employed (ask HMRC) is no benefit.
If you are called John, you must have heard of Hornby.
Numerous firms have “re-shored” call centres from India.
There has even been a pick-up in garment production.
The rise in energy costs impacts far more on the transport costs of the finished goods from China, India, Vietnam, whaever than it does on manufacturing costs.
I doubt that invalid vehicles, like my aunt-in-law’s mobility scooter, are suitable for delivering fast food – pretty slow food, more likely!
Perhaps I should have phrased that as ¨without changing their personal vehicle insurance to use for gain¨, as such use for delivering fast food renders their standard vehicle insurance invalid (adjective: void or without legal force). Of course, you will not know of the prevalence of JCP placing people for employment as fast-food delivery persons, using their own vehicle as transport?
There is a whole load of difference between ¨bring call centre jobs back¨ (poorly paid, if paid at all, since many are commission only) and bringing-back major production facilities, such as Dyson cleaners or large manufacturing re: televisions.
Transport costs are irrelevant compared to production costs, and availability of basic materials, in manufacturing.
Of course, you may be being sarcastic re: invalid transport.
I have been called John from shortly after birth. Isn´t Hornby the name of a model railway company !
There is also the issue with regards CPI versus RPI. CPI does exclude housing costs and for most people that is entirely unrealistic.
Preaching to the choir here.
The bigger problem with CPI is that is based on a geometrical mean rather than the arithmetical mean so by design it understates inflation over the longer term.