Today the TUC publishes a new economic statement. The economy is still in a very precarious position. Of course we welcome any sign of recovery, but much of what has been taken as evidence of recovery is the result of government and bank action.
Even with this, unemployment will almost certainly rise throughout next year. Cut the stimulus off and the economy would go into decline again.
What is astonishing are the calls to cut the public sector deficit as the top urgent priority. That is why we warn today that public spending cuts will provoke a double-quick double-dip recession. Unemployment could well exceed four million and it would take many years before there was any chance of returning to anything like full employment. That would scar for life a whole generation of young people.
Brendan Barber has his economic analysis spot on.
Disclosure: I advise the TUC
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