The 354 page report of the Scottish Growth Commission was published this morning. But you don't need to read it all. I admit I had an advance copy and as I read it last night I remained vaguely optimistic until I reached page 47. Then I knew the SNP has a disaster on its hands and that if it was to become independent on the basis of this report the last thing that the people of Scotland would enjoy would be growth.
That's because on page 47 the report says:
The Commission recommends that the currency of an independent Scotland should remain the pound sterling for a possibly extended transition period.
Admittedly it then adds:
A future Scottish Government should put in place the arrangements and financial infrastructure that would support a move to an independent Scottish currency at such time as this was considered appropriate for the Scottish economy.
Which is a sop, because most depressing is this comment, which comes next:
What happens with respect to currency the day before an independence vote would happen the day after and continue to happen until such time as the elected Scottish Government seeks to do something differently.
In other words, this Commission recommends that Scotland use the currency created by another country. That will mean five things.
The first is that Scotland will have no control over its money supply after independence.
Second it will have no control over its interest rate.
Third, if London decides to trash the rUK economy to support The City, or some other cause, Scotland will go down with it.
Fourth, all the negative impacts of Brexit will be imported directly into the Scottish economy.
Fifth, Scotland will effectively have to earn the currency of another state to service its debts.
All of these are devastating decisions by a Commission that is supposedly dedicated to independence. As that list shows, by choosing sterling as the Scottish currency Scotland would have no effective hope of achieving that status: it would remain enslaved by the pound and tied to the apron strings of London.
Depressingly, in support of their proposal the Commission says:
We note that this was the approach taken by Ireland for an extended period, albeit in a different period of history.
I know plenty enough about Irish economic history to describe the consequnce of this policy succinctly: it was a disaster that oppressed Ireland economically for decades.
I thought my mood could not go lower, but then it did. I read the recommended objectives for macroeconomic management of the Scottish economy in paragraph B12, which says Scotland should:
- Target a deficit value of below 3 per cent within 5 to 10 years.
- National debt should not increase beyond 50% of GDP and should stabilise at that level.
- Borrow only for public investment in net terms over the course of the cycle.
- During the transition period real increases in public spending should be limited to sufficiently less than GDP growth over the business cycle to reduce the deficit to below 3% within 5 to 10 years. At trend growth and target inflation rates this would mean average annual cash spending increases of above inflation in contrast to the Scottish budget experience under the UK regime of recent years and that scheduled for the remainder of the current planning period.
In other words, the Scottish economy will, after indepdence, be run to keep the London money markets happy.
The ability of a country with its own currency to issue debt to finance growth will be foregone by Scotland not having its own currency. Forget full employment then. But worse, what the Commission is saying by adopting these objectives, which will cruise all others in the report, that Scotland should welcome austerity in its place. That's what a deficit of 3% is guaranteed to deliver. This is literally importing George Osbrone's economics into Scotland.
Except its worse than that because spending will be cut to meet this target. This is what the fourth bullet point means. The new government of Scotland would, then, crush the economy for years to keep the money markets of London happy.
And Gordon Brown's Fiscal rule, that clearly worked so well before the crash of 2008, is exactly what the third bullet point describes. When the Commission stops importing Tory economic incompetence it supports Labour's failed policies instead.
Finally, and for good measure, the goal of keeping debt to 50% of GDP means invetsment in anything in the new Scotland will just be a pipe dream.
I could have gone on to plough throught the rest of this report, but why bother? Any quantity of graphs, and any number of comparisons with states broadly similar in size to Scotland are utterly irrelevant if this Commission that is supposed to be about growth has decided to remove any chance that Scotland could use monetary policy to control its economy, and has crushed any chance of a fiscal stimulus by committing Scotland to decades of austerity with the sole purpose of keeping the old oppressor in London happy.
The Scottish Growth Commission has proved to be a fantastic policy agent for the financial elite. But for those who hoped for a bright independent future it offers nothing but despair.
This Commission's suggestions are a disaster for Scotland, the SNP and the cause of independence. The Commission has proved itself the slave of pre-crash economics and a proponent of everything that is oppressive about neoliberalism. It's really hard to imagine how it could have been much worse or more out of kilter with what I sense the people of Scotland want.
This is a sorry day for Scotland.
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[…] seems only appropriate, in view of my comments this morning on the Scottish Sustainable Growth Commission report, to mention that Common Weal has offered a […]
This may sound like a broken record: Scotland has the largest and most easily accessible wind resource in Europe. To exploit that will need government investment on a very large scale. It sounds as if the report was written by people unfamiliar with this reality. Exploitation of the resource would allow Scotland to do other things such as low/zero carbon steel production ditto petro-chem. To achieve this will require substantial gov investment.
Perhaps the kindest comment with respect to the report is that it was written by those with all the vision of people running a corner shop – nice people – but unfitted to chart the path of a country (& Scotland ain’t a new country – it has been around just as long, if not longer, than England)..
Scotland also has the best tidal resource in Europe
It is literally its powerhouse
That makes all this especially bizarre
Mike Parr says:
“This may sound like a broken record: Scotland has the largest and most easily accessible wind resource in Europe.”
You’re talking mostly to a generation that at least knows what a ‘record’ is (I think I’m guessing the age profile on this site correctly).
Just keep saying it. Shout it if you will. Scotland has resources. It is the home of Marks and Spencer’s bloody ‘British’ Whisky. British. !!! FFS.
Imagine the fuss if Champagne was recategorised as French Sparkling wine. Theresa May got away with defending that label in the Commons. Emanuel Macron would be dead, disgraced or exiled. Remember the fuss about Australian ‘Claret’. Provenance counts for something. We’ve established that it’s enshrined in EU laws.
We’re going into serious bad territory. See how the Americans respond when somebody impugns the provenance of ‘Kentucky’ Bourbon.
I think M&S will be shifting most of their misbegotten ‘Britch’ from their rUK outlets (if they still have some open) assuming they don’t have the wit to recall it and have it properly labelled.
Here we go it’s all wrong and we have the stats to prove it. Of course you have – you are fanatics with a ‘union at all costs’ mentality.
Pardon?
I was quoting facts (as was Richard). Although English, I am quite happy to see Sctoland carve its own path as an independent nation & wish them well if a majority of Scots decide that that is what they want. All countries need economic activity – both on/off-shore wind & tidal could lay the foundations for Scottish prosperity – but it would need gov’ investment. The report cycled back from this – hence the criticism. Which bit of this don’t you understand?
Och well it’s saved me spending time reading it.
Easy meet for the neoliberals
Thanks Richard
Sorry “meat”
Total disaster. This is what happens when a political party decides not to do what is best for the people, but does what they think most people believe based on popular discourse by the misinformed. They had good informed advice but ignored it. Yet again, I’m looking at my SNP membership card and a pair of scissors and thinking hard. Idiots and fools. #LearnMMT
Well said Brian Stobie. They’ve gone for the populist route, not wanting to sound too radical in the eyes of the press. You would think they would have realised now that the establishment press will attack them whatever they do.
And yes they have had much in the way of decent macroeconomic input and advice but have thumbed their nose at it and and sought the advice of neoliberals. That’s very much how it looks anyway.
🙁
It is really amusing that people post comments about cutting up their membership card. Really? Do you actually have a membership card?
Have you done any research for yourself? Do you believe the crap in this article.
Once again no matter which way we go the unionists are going to cry currency.
Let’s make one thing clear. Once we vote for independance, then and only then does the work continue. Sorting out currency, asset share etc. Remember Scotland has paid towards the national assets. If we are expected to pay towards the national debt, then we are entitled to a pro rata share of the assets. Admittedly we do not want Trident. So Westminster can keep that and pay for it themselves.
Look I’m not born in Scotland but I am an SNP member and I do believe in an independent Scotland. I do know that there will be years of work to get independance sorted.
I also know that we cannot change currency over night. Unless you want us to do an immediate change to the Euro?
Make up your mind. If you live Scotland and independence, get off your arse and work with us to make a good country, great
The work begins well before then
Read Robin McAlpine
[…] Richard Murphy has ruined my Friday morning and the Growth Commission is the reason, as Richard rightly says, they may also have just ensured that economic independence remains a dream. […]
Ooooooh! Shit !
I have always felt that the only way forward was with a Scottish currency, no matter what short term pain it gave the economy. This is a report and not set in stone. The purpose is to provoke debate. Just keep arguing the case for the future Currency as you see it.
I haven’t read the report, but can I assume you find plenty to be positive about in there too.
After reading this summary from Richard Murphy,I am afraid this commission from the SNP will leave people wondering why the monetary situation is bowing to London’s centric ideology, plus when the unionists get hold of it all they will have a field day,and to me,well,my dream of an independent scotland looks as though it has gone out the window,unless the SNP turn this around and quickly,then i am afraid we will be under the thumb of Westminster for the foreseeable future,I am now very very sad.
Raymond Reid says:
“….under the thumb of Westminster for the foreseeable future,I am now very very sad.”
Buck-up Raymond it’s only a piece of paper. Wipe your ‘airse’ with a copy of it and let’s get on with the job.
It’s all to ‘play’ for.
I absolutely agree that this would be a total disaster for Scotland, but the headline figures look very much like those of the EU’s ‘Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union’ to me:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Fiscal_Compact
The SNP in the EU with the pound would already be acting with one hand tied behind their backs – they’re now asking for some cuffs
I don’t see that as being too big a problem. The Commission’s recommendations are only that – recommendations. They have probably arrived at this conclusion because it is very difficult to model how a brand new currency would perform and such a model would be far more exposed to picking apart.
I do believe a new currency is essential, but that is something which can indeed be left up to a post-independent country.
I believe part of the reason might be that they don’t want to cause a bigger run on the sterling than Brexit is going to. It’s propped up by the north sea oil reserves and if we decide to use those reserves to underpin a different currency, the consequences for sterling are… not good, to put it mildly.
So pandering to London then, as I said
I don’t want to frame it in negative terms, but yes. If we are to be independent, we need to recognise the consequences of that. One of which is that England as a neighbouring country needs to be handled… delicately. Especially if its government continues to be a shambolic mess and they are unable to quickly recover from the Brexit fallout.
The last thing I want to see happen is Scotland being blamed as the primary reason for the failure of Brexit and the collapse of the English economy. So a properly managed currency transition is quite acceptable IMO to mitigate the risks of that, even though I agree wholeheartedly that a Scottish currency is miles better than Independence-with-Sterlingisation.
Remember also that our target audience are soft No voters.
Eyes on the prize, people. That prize is sovereign independence.
Alan says:
“….The last thing I want to see happen is Scotland being blamed as the primary reason for the failure of Brexit and the collapse of the English economy.”
Personally I don’t give a toss about that. The EU referendum served notice very clearly on the overwhelming, Scottish will to remain. Remember that map. Mostly Blue to the Border, but ALL yellow above. And by a good margin Not a tiddly, quibble margin.
To be totally ignored and excluded from the actual Brexit negotiation process was an insult of obscene proportions.
The English economy will get what’s coming to it for better or worse. If the City doesn’t get it’s favoured status the jury is out on Brexit even happening.
It has bugger all to do with what Scots think or what Scots have done. Because ‘they’ asked; we told ’em; and they elected to take no bloody notice. Sod ’em.
I’m optimistic enough to hope that this report is merely a sop to conventional minded individuals who are scared by the thought of change, let alone, major change. It seems possible looking at the quotes you have supplied to interpret them differently. I shall have to read the full report before I can formulate more detailed views but in the meantime, while I think you are correct in expressing what is required, I think demand will eventually push this somewhat conservative report in favour of your recommendations.
A “sop to conventional minded individuals”? It didn’t work very well with Brexit.
Nor did it work at all during Indy 14.
Jim Hagart says:
“I’m optimistic enough to hope that this report is merely a sop to conventional minded individuals who are scared by the thought of change,…”
Fine as long as there is no expectation of getting away with it.
This sort of half-baked shite won’t pass muster.
Scotland will not win independence by trying to sneak out while nobody is looking. It won’t happen. Trident alone will prevent that.
This has to be won. It won’t sneak through by default.
Fight for it, or forget it.
Alas this is indeed nonsense on stilts. It would have been a poor policy before ‘Brexit’ but in the wake of that act of economic self-harm it is as politically inept as it would be economically disastrous. I say “would” because this is not the last word – but a cause unwon. The National Assemblies period must be used to pressure the SNP to change their tune on this. I recall a large SNP meeting on the subject in the Borders with George Kerevan when there was not a single hand raised for any other option save an independent Scottish currency. There is zero public support for this nonsense and the SNP must be made to realise it.
Jimmy jimny, you certainly haven’t read any of Richard’s previous articles about Scotland and its’ economy. Richard SUPPORTS independence, in the best circumstances, which these clearly are not.
I firmly believe that Scotland and its people will be better off as an independent country
But not with these economic policies
Toni Young says:
“Jimmy jimny, you certainly haven’t read …”
You see the sort of problem the Indy movement has to contend with….?
Hi Richard
I’d be interested in your suggestion as to what they should have done instead, taking into consideration, as I’m sure you would, the fact that politics trumps everything…. I mean, even if another route makes more sense economically, what use if the SNP couldn’t “sell” it, either to the Scottish public, the UK government or both?
Do you have a “shadow” paper..?
See my other blog on this published this morning
The links are in there
Andy Monaghan says:
I’d be interested in your suggestion as to what they should have done instead,…. what use if the SNP couldn’t “sell” it, either to the Scottish public, the UK government or both?
If the SNP/Yes movement can’t ‘sell’ it, it doesn’t get bought. End of.
What is ‘for sale’ has to be worth buying. Otherwise why is anybody going to buy it? If It’s a crap offer I just might not vote at all. If I go to the butcher I’m not going to buy rotting meat. I’ll take my money home or go to the greengrocer.
Sometimes ‘No deal really is better than a bad deal’.
But I don’t expect to live long enough to see a Indyref 3. I doubt anybody alive today will see that.
Do you have a “shadow” paper..?
I’d ask you, Andy, Do you have a dog in this race?….skin in this game ? If so what do YOU want? What would get you to a polling booth to put a cross for ‘YES’.
I can see the issues with staying with the Pound….Is there any chance that the Scottish Government could be being clever with this point?
Perhaps they are looking for the Unionist parties to pick a massive hole in this so that they are pushed towards a Scottish Currency. When they start moving towards the option then they can say “you told us to do it” if there is any objection….
Maybe I’m giving them too much credit.
We can hope
I was under the impression that these were all recommendations and not yet definite. Anyone who disagrees with the currency issue should write to their MSP to voice their opinion.
We really don’t want a total negative backlash from independence supporters on this which would make the Tories very happy but a constructive move to have this changed assuming enough evidence can be provided to convince our Scottish Government.
Get talking to the SNP then
I am, already
I have emailed my MSP with my concerns and asked that they be passed onto Nicola.
Can everyone else who is concerned do the same please?
It’a only a report, I’m sure the innovative people of SCOTLAND will find the answer to this.
I’m hopeful that, as it’s a report that is an advisory document, it is the rock from which other ideas may spring and be incorporated.
Remembering that the one and only thing that independence definitively provides for Scotland is the ability to change everything I would hope that this can be kept as a good natured debate so that we can direct our energies into winning independence rather than attacking each other. That said I take issue with the report too, particularly over currency, I have no desire to take long term use of Sterling to the doorstep nor do I particularly wish us to commit to some of those economic targets as they make sense as part of the UK not as an independent state. So what I am asking is a plea to keep the debate amicable even in the strength of our disagreements.
Good point
An absolute disaster Richard.
It’s been written by an idiot.
Bear in mind the growth commission report is the basis for debates in National Assemblies over the summer before official policy is debated and settled at the SNP conference in October. If you disagree that using the pound is the best course, feed that back and say why! Hardly a disaster to disagree with the report. I personally favour creating a new currency.
He has written a report on the tax setup of the country – see here -> http://allofusfirst.org/tasks/render/file/?fileID=E12166B7-A479-B678-060EBBB82D89B092
Agreed.
Another one of Sturgeon’s economists bites the dust. 😉 LOL.
I had low expectations of this report. Sadly, my expectations have been met. History has shown that countries that tie their economic future to another rarely succeed. To be kind, it is perhaps just trying to sugar-coat the reality that an independent Scotland would have austerity max for many years, even decades. To many believers, that may may be a price worth paying. For the majority who want a decent standard of living for their families it is a disaster. Many companies will relocate to England. My company will be one of them. Though based in Scotland 80% of our business is in England. There is no incentive to stay. Stay and be taxed to perdition. No thanks.
Scotland could be massively dynamic
Literally the power house of Europe
Not like this though
the growth commission report is a discussion document, to be debated in national assemblies across the country. Your viewpoints are valid and welcome and I look forward to seeing the results of those discussions. My personal preference is for a new currency, but if we do not yet have the infrastructure in place to support it , there needs to be a practical stopgap?
I suggest reading Robin McAlpine
The thinking is being done
This movement is a million miles ahead of Brexit
There is a good reason to use the pound not in a formal union just like Jersey, is that we do not have our own bank, mortgages, loans etc. The Banks we use at the moment only use gbp and can only deal with an other currencty through an exchange system which is not in their core banking. We would need to set up a new Scottish bank with terminals and electronic exchange. The Common Weal example on banking was to go digital, how would that work with loans and mortgages. People still like to access there money. It will take several years to work out our new bank that is why there is an intern period of using the pound but not joined to the Uk. As coming from a Software banking experience I think it is quite sensible and this should have been used at the last referendum.
Common Weal argued for this from day one
That is possible
Hi there all,
I think the whole meaning of the page 47 ideas about currency is to start the debate during the meetings that are planned, and SNP will use the arguments to further develop.
I wish it felt like that
I hope you are right
It’s not policy, there are going to be a series of Discussions Conventions over the summer. The Fracking ban consultation was criticised by opposition parties but created the most comprehensive consultation evidence for the law, in the world.
Richard I enjoy your daily blogs. Stimulating. Could you be depressed for no reason? For clarity, I favour a Scottish currency and might even prefer to avoid using the word ‘pound’ in case of guilt by association. For further clarity, I haven’t yet read the report. So just a couple of things to add to your very full inbox before it crashes under the weight of comments.
My degree parchment is in a subject called ‘Political Economy’. No longer fashionable under the delusion that this is some firm ‘science’ that is objective in its analysis. All economics are political especially when we’re told they’re not.
My couple of points to add to those already made, as always some better than others;
1. Banking. This needs to be rebuilt and rebranded after independence to make up for past disasters, especially those banks with the Scotland name included. Meantime use sterling in a bid not to scare too many horses.
2. Time. It is not a 10 minute job to build our own economic institutions. The current government has closed or is closing 2 centres of tax raising. Many HMRC jobs reported to be now around London.
3. Change. Tommy Shepherd – independence gives nothing of itself other than the ability to change everything. Politics will develop from Day 2 of independence. (Be reasonable Richard, I’ve waited more than 50 years to get this close to freedom – so I’ll need Day 1 to party and recover.)
Jim
The preparation has to begin a long time before day 2, as Robin McAlpine has pointed out
But I agree on the use of day one!
Richard
1. Scotland will have no control over its money supply after independence.
Financial management of the oil industry is done in London (currently). The strangle hold of this resource means it would very difficult to have anything but the pound in the short term.
2. Second it will have no control over its interest rate.
Currently interest rates are low in the UK and Europe. When Scotland gets independence, there will be great downward pressure on the pound and it will not be possible for the Bank of England to put interest rates to go up. With the financial centers in London controlling the selling of oil, it is unlikely there would be any need for a difference in the interest rates. Also with the two countries tied together with the same currency, it would maintain financial stability for both Scotland and rUK
3. If London decides to trash the rUK economy to support The City, or some other cause, Scotland will go down with it.
With independence will come difficulties in maintain the kind of aggressive military stance that has gone before. If anything, this will force the UK economy to become more restrained and there will be much less likelihood of any “thrashing”.
4. All the negative impacts of Brexit will be imported directly into the Scottish economy.
Not all. There will be panic in rUK companies and they will want a base in Scotland in case Scotland decides to go into Europe. This will result in massive inward investment from England into Scotland.
5. Scotland will effectively have to earn the currency of another state to service its debts.
Since most of the debts will be in that currency, that is hardly a problem. There will be continue to be significant trade between Scotland and England, so by retaining the same currency, the debt will not be subject to currency variations. Later, after proper negotiations have been done which will take a significant amount of time, having agreed the share of nation debt appropriate to Scotland, when Scotland takes it’s own currency, it is most likely the value of the Scottish “pound” will rise with respect to the rUK pound. This will shrink the debt.
1. Oil is traded in dollars
2. You entirely miss the point – which is Scottish control, regardless
3. Really? Have you spotted something the rest of us have missed?
4. That’s already happening – in EU member states
5. Scottish debt needs to be in its currency
I suggest you read some MMT
To quote Jacob Reece Mogg MP, “We must not be a vassal state”.
Richard’s very clear analysis suggests that these recomendations would indeed lead to Scotland becoming a vassal state of rUK, possibly with worse consequences than remaining in the Union.
This must be changed, and quickly, else what will be the point in bothering to vote Yes in IndyRef2?
Geoff Hobson says:
“To quote Jacob Reece Mogg MP, “We must not be a vassal state”.”
Much of the case for Scottish Independence is made in the rhetoric of Brexit. it is riddled with irony.
For example, to make a rhetorical case for regaining sovereignty when it is already a sovereign currency issuer, and therefore has the most important lever already in its control. Er…..?
To wish to not be a vassal ‘state’ whilst simultaneously discussing trade arrangements which will sell us lock stock and (over a) barrel to US corporate interests.
I despair at the Tory Brexit (lack of) logic and the people who are being gulled by it into thinking it will somehow further their interests and promote any degree of wellbeing.
If Brexiteers think the EU is difficult to negotiate with …’they ain’t seen nothing yet’. Worth watching the Donald Trump style…’negotiations ‘ with N Korea, for example…it’s very instructive.
1. Oil is traded in dollars in London. The return to the Scottish economy would be in what ever currency Scotland chose to use, but having traded it in London, it’s likely the cheapest exchange route would be to keep it in UK pounds. Unless your advocating that Scotland using the US dollar?
2. Controlled Scottish control. The control could be a disaster. What we’ve been landed is “British control regardless”. Yeah! That’s going well!
3. You really think the UK is deliberately going to trash it’s own economy so it can take Scotland down? There will be significant growth in Scotland regardless of which currency it decides to use. Your arrogance in your writing suggests you have already made up your mind and are not looking at the whole picture.
4. The negative aspects of Brexit will temporarily affect Scotland. But this will be offset by a tsunami of business growth as many companies realize their only hope of survival is shifting their to Scotland.
5. Scottish debt is best held in the a shared currency with the UK at least temporarily. The period immediately following an independence vote will be extraordinarily uncertain for everyone in the UK (including Scotland). Scotland will not benefit from an England that descends to near bankruptcy. Scotland will be stronger if England is also strong. Your whole “independence at any cost” is naive and dangerous. It doesn’t have to be like that.
I thought I had already answered this?
Lawrence Armour says:
“1. Oil is traded in dollars in London. ….” Yada yada….
There’s considerably more at stake than the oil industry. It isn’t the be all and end all. (Except as a result of UK government policy to pander to the oilmen)
“2. Controlled Scottish control. The control could be a disaster. What we’ve been landed is “British control regardless”. Yeah! That’s going well!”
5. Scottish debt is best held in the a shared currency with the UK at least temporarily. The period immediately following an independence vote will be extraordinarily uncertain for everyone in the UK (including Scotland). Scotland will not benefit from an England that descends to near bankruptcy. Scotland will be stronger if England is also strong. Your whole “independence at any cost” is naive and dangerous. It doesn’t have to be like that.
Don’t understand what you’re saying here, Lawrence. It reads to me like ‘let’s run, not walk, to the nearest exit’ from the UK union.
” 3. You really think the UK is deliberately going to trash it’s own economy so it can take Scotland down? …..”
No deliberation ….the UK economy is being driven down by stupidity, and will collapse with the rest of the global finance house of cards in due course, but it’s not to spite Scotland. There is no motive just flying blind on autopilot with no destination in the sat nav.
4. The negative aspects of Brexit will temporarily affect Scotland……
Temporaily ? what are we calling temporary and why confine the expectation to Scottish prospects?
“….But this will be offset by a tsunami of business growth as many companies realize their only hope of survival is shifting their to Scotland.”
Mebbe. Sounds like wishful thinking to me. What will they be coming for? Cheap labour because it’s the only part of the UK mainland that doesn’t wish to expel all the immigrant workforce they live off. ?
“5. Scottish debt is best held in the a shared currency with the UK at least temporarily.”
I doubt it. “Better Together” ? No thankyou. We’ve seen what that’s worth. (Three hundred years of it…. and four years)
Time to grant England the independence it craves.
[…] Growth Commission report is intended to provoke discussion. I am not enamoured by its suggestions on either monetary or fiscal economic policy, but what if the related issue of taxation, on which subject I wrote a White Paper for Common Weal […]
My initial response when reading Richard Murphy’s comments on the Growth Commission’s financial ideas was a rapidly increasing feeling of depression. That feeling started to lift as I realised that Richard must have had similar feelings himself and it brought great relief to know that he was still in there and still pitching for Scotland. We must be thankful for that and also his stated support for Common Weal.
Spot on. Bruce.
“My initial response when reading Richard Murphy’s comments on the Growth Commission’s financial ideas was a rapidly increasing feeling of depression.”
My sentiments entirely. Expressed somewhat more eloquently than my ‘Oooooh Shit’.
Nil desperandum. We haven’t hardly started yet.
Nil illegitimum carborundum
As I understand it, the growth commission report is intended to speak to different audiences and is political rather than purely economic. Tbere would be nothing wrong with transitioning to a new currency sooner rather than later. But telling doubters they will lise their pounds on day one is suicide too.
The Growth commission is therefore politically feasible, while the economic realities of becoming independent are likely to outperform these proposals IF Scotland is able to respond to changing circumstances in an agile way. I suggest independence is needed to deliver the required agility…
So rather than tell people the truth you’re suggesting economic suicide instead?
Daniel Owens says:
“As I understand it, the growth commission report is intended to speak to different audiences and is political rather than purely economic.”
Interesting idea as you follow it up with your double think theory, but I think you are giving credit where it is unlikely to be due.
We can’t sneak Indy ‘under the wire’. It won’t go.
It has to be won or lost. Make the case. It’ll stun the populus. They have no resistance to the truth, and it will be such a novelty. 🙂
Another bunch of confusion from the SNP with the Scottish Growth Commission report. This to add to the question, ‘ What does the SNP see as real independence? ‘ If it is to still be tied to the EU then that is not independence. More chaos, probably have to join the Euro, pay the EU billions each year to belong to their club and have Scottish waters filled with boats from EU countries. !!
Mr Porter,
While I disagree with the Scottish Growth Commission on currency, it seems to me your comments merely add to the confusion. For some reason you chose to identify the fishing industry as part of the “chaos”; but the chaos is much closer to home than the EU. May I suggest that you read John Lichfield, “Ukip is wrong: British fishing answers to Westminster not Brussels” in The Guardian, 6th April: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/ukip-british-fishing-westminster-brussels-brexit
It is useful if we all try to reduce the confusion, rather than add to it.
And Graeme Goodall “On Scottish Fishing” in Bella Caledonia, 5th April: https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2018/04/03/on-scottish-fishing/
[…] Richard Murphy writes (‘The Scottish Growth Commission gets its economics very badly wrong’): […]
[…] deal of interesting verbiage to keep the likes of Kevin Hague distracted, but the reality is, as I have explained, that the whole report is about money. Or rather, it is, even more depressingly, about how to […]
Currency for Scotland was a hot topic at The Gathering in Stirling today.
Grassroots indy is not happy to wait for ever to have control of currency and the necessary powers and benefits that affords.
Well that was very much my reading of the conversation.
Good!