I am aware that some will think me in inconsistent for singing the praises of Andrew Rawnley in the Observer this morning. I have, after all, been quite critical of his writing on occasion. I offer no apology: I do not think the world is binary and Rawnsley has made a highly pertinent observation today when saying:
When [a] senior Tory confided his anxiety that public disorder could break out in the next 24 months, my first response was to think him hyperbolic. Then I considered it further. More and deeper spending cuts for as far as the eye can see. Accompanied by rising taxes. Plus another crunch on living standards. With the risk that an economic shock could turn an extremely challenging outlook into a really grisly one. I now think it not at all unreasonable to worry that there will be blood on the streets.
I have already made clear that I think an economic downturn is coming. The policies Corbyn borrowed from me in 2015 were designed for that eventuality: I said so at the time.
I have also made clear that I think May's premiership will end sooner and in more chaos than most now think possible.
And a persistent theme of this blog for some time has been the rise of neo-feudalism, which in many ways is the antithesis of populist politics but whose exponents think that populism may suit their purposes for the time being.
And Rawnsley is right that we face cuts, inflation, stagnating wages (partly as a result of foolish government policies like enforced pension enrolment designed to sustain stock market growth and an apprentice levy which is no such thing) and tax rises. Add massive diversion of government resources into a wasteful activity (Brexit) that cannot have a successful outcome, loss of key employees who are leaving the country in many critical areas in the economy, a growing NHS crisis in which the rising death toll will be unavoidable and repatriation of UK citizens from the EU where they will no longer be welcome whilst also not wanting to be here and a melting pot is the least we can expect.
What we also have to remember is that in the middle of all that there is no effective opposition in the UK. Labour wants to oppose. Many in it are sincere in their wish. But the party has lost its purpose right across the spectrum. Its right are indistinct and without a coherent or identifiable belief system anyone can adhere to. Its left proffer binary solutions for an era long past that rarely reflect the reality of the much more complex world we now live in. Despite that there are ideas out there. And parties too. But tribalism stops Labour joining with them to offer anything approaching a vision. This means Labour is now the impediment to democratic progress for any alternative to the bankruptcy of a Tory government given the crassness of our electoral system.
And so the descent into chaos begins.
There are ways out. But I fear if they must begin on the streets. That road usually leads to fascism. And let's not pretend that is not the great risk now. Because it is.
PS: still suffering from a lurgy: moderation may be slow
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No, there will be no street protests in significant numbers. Why, people are sheep, division tactics have worked.
When people like David Clapson (an ex soldier of all people) die because of a cruel system and nobody besides close family and bloggers protest, yet come out in protest for against the President of another country, we get what we deserve.
From my own struggle with the lurgy, I rise, Nosferatu- like, to add my agreement with what you have to say. I would add that I am also at one with Wolfgang Streeck, who has said that he thinks we are in some kind of “end of capitalism” moment (my words), because there is currently no power in existence, capable of dealing with the issues of stagnation, increasing inequality, and continuing uncontrolled financialisation. We are in a bad way.I think I am going to get back to reading Polanyi.
I wish I thought Polanyi had the answer…let me know if you find it
Polanyi said the state should become the master not beholden to the ‘market’ so he did have the answer but not how to do it…that’s for us to work out.
I would agree that disorder might occur – but it has to occur in the right places. The last lot of disorder, the riots when Cameron was on holiday and failed to return if I recall, were pretty much ignored by the government both when they happened and as to their consequences (unless you were unlucky enough to be one of the few to be arrested). I fear the disorder would have to be both protracted and outside Westminster, the BBC or GCHQ or even all of them before the government might deign to reexamine some of its policies.
If it kicks in then authoritarian May will dig in to the bitter end, Ceaucescu stile. She won’t compromise.
*Kicks off I mean.
With respect I think the chaos is much deeper and wider than government policies. Since we’re all in a black mood, many people blame post-modernism for the mess we’re in. We live in a culture of nihilism. I grew up in the fifties and sixties and got my facts from encyclopedias and libraries and published authors. By and large I trusted ‘experts’ and hierarchies and I knew where to find trusted sources of information. It was so much easier to discern than it is now. No-one knows the difference between facts, lies and opinions any more and no-one seems to care. Narcissism is the controlling factor. What’s true is whatever I want to be true. Promoters of Brexit, like Gove, openly admitted they pushed ideas that they fully knew were untrue because there really are no ‘facts’ anymore and experts know diddlysquat. Trump is working it like the seasoned pro he is. There are no facts in Trumps life. Fake news is the order of the day. Even if he did recognise a fact he might not know what to do with it.
Question: If a culture has ‘no truth’ how can it have any idea when it’s lying?
Google is supposed to be one the leading edges in the culture of ‘information’. It’s where people go to find things out. Yet as Carole Calwalladr wrote recently in the Guardian, Google is definitely not organising the world’s information in a way that can be universally acceptable or useful. Algorithms reflect virtually nothing in terms of quality information, (since no particular truth must be favoured) except the popularity of the most- responded- to sites. It’s extremely worrying to think that this is where my grandchildren will find most of their information and trust the results, because no-one is teaching them to question what they read on the internet.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/11/google-frames-shapes-and-distorts-how-we-see-world
And we can only blame ourselves. With the leading edges in academia declaring war on absolute truth and giving equal credence and equal time to every possible alternative viewpoint, no mater how hair-brained all we are left with is flatland. No ideas or beliefs are deemed better than any others, no matter how idiotic. The biggest crime is ‘judgment’. And if we can’t make right judgments we are in deep shit. Must be coming down with the lurgy……..
Grace, I find myself agreeing with some of what you write, and totally disagreeing with other parts.
Despite Cadwalladr’s opinions I do not want Google, under any circumstances, promoting their version of the truth. The answer, as you have identified, is to install the ability to think critically and evaluate not only the content but the source.
You also make a good point about equal time to differing viewpoints. This, however, does seem to me to be a majorly left wing viewpoint with their quest for alternative viewpoints and history; often to be seen in the Guardian. It’s clearly not an exclusively left wing thing though as seen most clearly in the American political and religious right.
An improvement in critical thinking would bring a host of benefits across across many areas of life.
‘Alternative facts’ are just a form of self-justification for those with agenda’s – not well researched ideas or alternatives as to how to make the world better.
The real problem as I see it is that it is whose blood is spilt which will decide if there is any change or not.
I think that the Tories are quite happy to see other people having a go at each other whilst they continue with their back ward revolution.
I have always believed that it will take pitchforks to bring the 0.001% to economic justice. They’ll get little sympathy.
Richard, I also think it likely there will be an economic downturn before long as disposable incomes are reduced. With the money supply barely holding up, state money creation is the way out. And in the event of another economic shock, a monetary revolution will be essential.
Yes, I wish Labour would get back behind a useful form of QE; yours, whichever. In my view that will be their ONLY option to succeed in government and dodge fascism. Adair Turner is backing monetary financing. Could you back an idea not your own?
I don’t care about the finer points, but this thing needs to be done.
I agree Richard. I have been predicting a collapse of capitalism and blood on the streets and the dangers of the rise of Fascism and a neo-feudal state for as long as I have studied politics and the economy. The so-called resilience of neo-liberal economics is another of the wrong-facts I have mentioned before. When people look back at this period in the decades to come they will be able to put your predictions into the proper perspective.
Keep up the good work.
It’s not hyperbole: he knows about the food banks. He might even know about the rents.
Communities – sometimes, whole cities – blow up in destructive rioting under any provocation, or none, whenever tbey are subjected to severe econonic stress.
Some senior tories are bright enough to see it; none are no foolish as to speak the truth aloud.
Back in the 1990s, MI5 were predicting that the next source of terrorism in the UK would be….. the middle class who would see the gradual erosion of their lifestyle caused by the UK’s economic decline. Skidelsky in the Guardian in 2016 outlined the trajectory of the UK’s decline without putting any numbers to it. A lack of political capacity (Brexit amongst other things) combined with May-hems authoritiatrian tendencies is likely to lead to growing numbers of mistakes & the usual Brit “too little too late” stuff. Back in the 19th Cent’ the UK was seen as the place most likely to have a revolution – nobody thought it would be Russia. Perhaps now, 1+ century later various chickens are coming home to roost & conditions are right, or wrong, depending on your point of view.
It was worried about in the 20s and 30s too, of course
Maybe even the 50s
That’s a bit worrying as the next terrorist thread came from militant Islam and not the UK middle class at all. Don’t suppose you can point me to a report from MI5 claiming this? To be honest it sounds like one of those urban myths. When have the British middle classes ever rebelled against anything? They usually do nothing but grumble and write stern letters to the Times. Although I suppose these days letters have been replaced by blogs. But rebelling against the Tories? They are too comfy.
BTW – I do not think that you are being inconsistent.
The intransigence of this Government would test the patience of any resonable person – libertarian or not.
2 years ago I attended a rally of The Peoples Assembly which was an anti austerity march against the cuts. There were thousnads of us on the streets but it was little reported. Where was Labour at this time in opposing Tory rule? No where. They were as usual rolling over and taking it on the chin so as notto appear to live up to the media led lie that Labour was the cause of our financial difficulties. Milliband and all the others let this lie continue unchallenged. Who was the only labour MP on that march with the people? Jeremy Corbyn of course. Everything he said with such passion was and still is true today. He told us who was to blame (the Banks) and that austerity would not work and it would cause destruction to all our public services. Seems he was right? So many people like myself learnt that we could vote for him in the leadership election as he seemed to be the only MP who was actually trying to do something and who really cared. We all know this man does not have the ego and arrogance of Blair, that is why we wanted him. Some one with truth & integrity. So the people voted for change but Labour did not want change as was seen by the behaviour of so many of the MPs. Labour lost the votes of Scotland because they were acting like Tories. Since then, the PLP has continued to block, attack and try to destroy the elected leader instead of uniting and opposing all the evil policies this government continue to produce. If the ratings for Labour are down it is not because of Corbyn it is because people see the appalling behaviour of schemeing career politicians who pretend they are Labour and are destroying the party. I seriously think there are infiltrators in the party but they are not Corbyn supporters!
I am sorry Min, but Corbyn is utterly useless
yes he has passion
But he cannot fund an idea to use
And nor has he the ability to deliver a Domino’s Pizza
And I have seen him close up
I am probably further left than Corbyn – he’s frightened to use my economic ideas and offers drab neoliberal ones instead – so I am not saying this for ideological reasons
I am saying this because he is utterly hopeless
Yes, I read Rawnsley’s article in the Observer yesterday, and it rings horribly true to me. Even without the lunacy of leaving the EU, we’d be in a mess with the never ending austerity policies of this government. Add on the huge economic dislocation and political bitterness caused by Brexit, and I see awful times ahead.
I personally can’t forgive the lies of the Leave campaign and the unutterable stupidity of some Leave voters. When the **** hits the fan, I won’t be blaming the EU, or listening to exhortations to ‘pull together for the sake of the country’ from right wing charlatans or those stupid enough to believe their lies.
I think a vote for Scottish independence looks ever more likely………could you blame the Scots for wanting to ‘take back control?’
I wouldn’t blame the Scots for feeling that way SOTD but if the Scots politicians who negotiate separation from the Union mess it up and the Scottish economy goes down the pan, Scotland will see the biggest transfer of its wealth/land/resources from the commons to the private sector that has ever been seen.
Can you imagine a bankrupt Scotland with Donald Trump arriving to ‘save the day’? It could happen if they are not careful.
PSR, assuming there is a 2nd referendum, and that its a Yes vote (and as time goes on and the Brexit negociations reveal it for the lunacy it is, that seems increasingly likely), I don’t see a victorious SNP falling for the tricks the Tories will try and pull which you’ve outlined above.
In any case, IF they can get independence, they’ll be able to escape from the ideological fanaticism of the hard right that run the Tories – lucky them. And let’s face it, the whole UK economy will be messed up with Brexit anyway, and we’ll be whored off to Trump and his equivalents from around the world in a race to the bottom and a return to the ‘glories’ of 19C capitalism.
Yes – me again.
I note that comments for your Feburary 17th Post ‘Labour: stuck in the middle’ have been turned off. No problem with that BTW.
If I were able to respond to George S Gordon’s post there (this chap seems to be endorsing Scottish independence) I would say the following but it does seem to me to be appropriate under this post in relation to the concept of chaos.
And I am not responding to Mr Gordon because he has stated that I am not being rational. This is not tit fo tat. I just feel the need to make the following point(s).
My view about Scotland is that it has been treated very badly by England throughout its history – from the denuding of the Caledonian Forest, to the mass eviction of crofters and even up to the way in which the ship yards of Glasgow and steel industries (Ravenscraig) were destroyed by Westminster. Watching events from the east midlands as a young person in the 1980’s, it seeme to me that Scotland suffered first or seemed to be used as a testing ground for the some of the worst policies that the Tories of that period in particular later brought to England. I feel very bad about this abuse from the Englsih Establishment.
So I can understand the fervour that can be generated as a result of such bad treatment – I’m English and have seen the suffering in the Midlands coalfields and heavy industry caused by Tory policies and currently suffer personally from their policies now. For Glasgow or Ravenscraig, read Ilkeston or Shirebrook or Alfreton – all places that are nearly like ghost towns now – just clinging on. If I could detach my part of England from Westminster I would certainly like to get away from them as far as possible. But this is not possible is it?
My worry for Scottish independence is that it may just not be feasible or desirable. Why? Well let me tell you a little tale from the the world of social housing finance.
In my world (social housing) the housing revenue account (HRA) of local authorities is a big pot of money used to pay for the housing service – weekly rent income is put into it. It was also used to deposit government subsidy money to run the service too.
In 2015 there was a significant change in that instead of local authorities sending this money (surplus) back to central government to be divvied up nationally, local authority (LA) landlords were allowed instead to keep it and the HRA effectively became ‘stand alone’ and external subsidy effectively stopped (but you could still apply for new development grant from the Homes and Commmunity Agency). You could see the policy as part of the the Tories ‘localism agenda’.
So great – prima facie – the LA gets to keep all it’s rent income and does not have to give any back to Westminster. The LA is ‘independent’ from a housing finance point of view.
But there is a dark side to all of this that is instructive to anyone who wants independence.
1) Any overhanging debt on the HRA still has to be paid by the new stand alone HRA. It is felt that the 2015 Government got a great deal out of this – it pocketed the money from the final settlement that could have been used to pay off this debt for nearly every LA landlord. Instead it is still there as a legacy liability within this new ‘independent’ HRA.
2) There is the benenfit cap – which means that every year there will be a reduction in the accomodation part of benefit payments – every year until eventually even the smaller properties will not be affordable to those on benefits. Obviously what is being lost here is income to the LA landlord’s ‘independent’ HRA. Council Landlords will shrink and disappear eventually if this is not stopped. I kid you not.
3) The bedroom tax – landlords are stuck with their housing stock – Stockport has lots of 2 bed flats for example so tenants face cuts in benefit because of the spare room so that their homes become too expensive and they will be evicted with rent arrears – more legal expense for the HRA and rent (income) loss too.
4) Under 35 single room local housing allowance – basically this comes in soon – under 35’s will not be able to live in even the smallest properties as their rent will be pegged to a shared room in a house in the private sector. Again more rent loss, more expense for the LA in terms of eviction, rough sleeping problems etc. We are looking at how to build homes for this client group and there is no doubt that we will have to use non-traditional system (maybe lower quality) means to achieve this is order that the rent can pay off the build cost (£53 per week!).
5) Development subsidy from the HCA is now heavily skewed towards the private buying sector with subsidy being used to cut the cost to buyers – not affordable housing for rent – from 2018. LA’s will have to build to sell if they are to be able to build affordable housing to rent. HCA subsidy is only 18% of cost and that is if you apply for it at all.
6) Right to Buy (RTB). Already my area has record levels of socially rented homes being bought and we cannot replace this lost income with new homes fast enough. Sales are up because the Tories increased the discount.
7) RTB Receipts – we can use the receipts for new homes. We have 3 years to spend them and if not we have to give the receipts back to central Government. The problem here is that 3 years is a very short time in development terms and you have to factor in the borrowing, with the receipts plus paltry HCA grant (18% per property)if you have bothered. It does not make sense given that Government only allows us to use receipts to pay for 30% of the cost of a new home and the remaining 70% has to be paid for out of the ‘independent HRA’ – which means that the ‘head room’ for borrowing has to managed over many years – not just three. In 2015, Haringey Council gave £14.8 million of receipts back to the government because it would have had to go over its finacial due diligence rules in order to spend enough to retain the receipts. Crazy! Imagine what would have happened had they gone ahead and done that?
So there you go. Yes we got our financial independence but with strings attached – big ones. Lots of risk and lots of potential dead ends and as things stand now, a very uncertain future. I think that this illustrates the mal-intent cunning and duplicity inherent within this Government. They want to appear to be devolving power down but in fact retain a cast iron grip.
Who is to say that the Scots will not get a shittier deal?
So I have some questions for those Scots who are ardent for independence which I pose not to poke fun at or disparage their passion but to elucidate them instead:
a) How are you going to raise taxes to fund your new independnent state? What impact might those txes have?
b) Beyond their nationalism, what is the SNP about? Are they Left or Right? Which side is in charge? Are the Right using the language of neo-liberalism?
c) Do you feel that your politicians (especially the SNP) are the right calibre for the job?
d) Will any debt be written off when you separate from the UK? Remember also that you will be inheriting run down infrastructure as a result of English austerity measures since 2008. Starting with historical debt is not really a good start is it? You have so much to do. You could do with out historical debt believe you me.
e) What will you use as a currency? Euros? Why? Given that the ECB has about it some of the worst neo-lib elements that led to the rejection by many of the EU in the referendum, how will the Euro benefit an independent Scotland?
f) Scotland has well-known social problems. How are these going to be provided for by a nationalist government? How are you going to manage and fund the island communities of the far north?
g) Who in the Scottish establishment stands to gain the most from any chaos caused by a bad deal with Westminster? Who will get the land? Who will get their hands on the resources?
There is an old saying:
Measure twice
Check thrice
Cut once.
If you have to go, go – I understand. But I tell you that the ghost of Edward I still influences attitudes to Scotland in the English Establishment. Don’t trust them. Be careful. If things go wrong and life gets harder for the people of Scotland as a result, there will be plenty of sharks and vultures circling in the chaos. And some of them may well be familiar faces.
Adding to this interesting discussion & back to Rawnsley – shown below is electricity consumption in terrawatt hours for 2012 – 2016. As you can see, the UK reduced consumption by around 10% in that period – when around 300k/year of people were going into the UK. Either the UK is doing something very fancy in electrical energy efficiency or the 3% rise in pop had zero impact on consumption, or, industrial decline continues apace. & for the switched on amongst you – I don’t think the decline is accounted for by roof top/household PV – I think it is due to less industrial activity.
Country 2012 2103 2014 2015 2016
Germany 550 549 534 553 508
France 489 494 465 474 482
Italy 323 314 308 312 302
Spain 251 246 243 246 248
UK 309 305 290 281 274