The FT is reporting this morning that Boris Johnson has had a firm slap on the knuckles from Number 10 for suggesting that the UK may invoke Article 50 next year and so leave the EU in 2019. Apparently such speculation is not allowed by Theresa May.
This should worry people, for three reasons. First, given that the government is committed to leaving the EU and Article 50 is the only way to do that saying that the Foreign Secretary cannot talk about it indicates the most massive lack of trust in him. This suggests far too much power is being concentrated in Number 10.
Second, the rebuff is absurd: if the UK is to leave the EU before the 2020 election then Article 50 has to be invoked next year. It's extremely odd to waste political capital denying something that seemingly has to happen.
Third, if the glaringly obvious cannot be talked about when it comes to Brexit then imagine how little we will be told about the actual negotiations by Number 10. Thankfully leaks from 27 other sources are likely to fill in the gaps. If Theresa May thinks she has real control of this process she us likely to be seriously mistaken.
All if which suggests that we have a government that is paranoid about its main task in hand, lacks confidence in its senior ministers and is riven from top to bottom before the hard work really starts. If the Tories survive this process intact it will be astonishing.
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saying that the Foreign Secretary cannot talk about it indicates the most massive lack of trust in him.
I’m with May on this: I wouldn’t trust BoJo an inch.
Which rather begs the question, why did May give him the job in the first place?
Obviously, she’s just giving him enough rope with which to hang himself, but that doesn’t really help the country at all, does it? Putting self-interest ahead of the country when making one of your first political appointments doesn’t exactly bode well for the future under her leadership.
Well said.
I have thought all along that BJ was taken on for this job just so that he could be fired from it with “Reasonable cause”.
But as you say, its a difficlt enough time already without playing mind games plus the political posturing
Agreed. In which case why did May appoint such a careerist loose cannon to one of the great offices of state and deepen the confusion by appointing Alan Duncan as his No 2. A man openly critical of Johnson s motives for aligning with Brexit. Not to mention the ostensibly redundant positions created for Fox and Davis guaranteeing muddying of the demarcation lines and guaranteeing turf wars at the expense of collegial progress by the legacy FO.
Goes to May s immaturity in appointing an effective management team and thereby giving hostages to upcoming fortune.
Actually Richard, parliament only needs to revoke the legislation that took us into the common market/EU.
Invoking article 50 gives notice we intend the leave and compels negotiation on the terms of future relations/trade etc.
A “hard” brexit would mean repealing laws and departing immediately with no future agreements.
In looking over our history within the EU, I have noted that we have only ever been “in” as little as necessary to qualify as a member.
We could, in theory, do a hard exit and join EFTA/EEA…..whether the other members of EFTA would want the UK is another thing…
My feelings on this are:-
With a weakened opposition, the Tories will survive whatever happens. The Devil looks after his own and the death of this bunch of Tories can be greatly exaggerated (wishful thinking). The Toies could claim to be more popular than Jesus at this moment in time and they’d get away with it.
May has said that BREXIT means BREXIT so when I heard Boris all he seemed to be doing was confirming that. The slap down from No. 10 is just the matronly Ms May asserting who is in charge (it is about who is allowed to speak).
Even if the Tories are riven, I remain more concerned about the country at large and what will happen to ordinary folk as our realtionship begins to sever. I am worried about other so-called trading ‘partners’ taking advantage of our situation – self-made as it is.
You have to give the Tories/neo-libs some credit however: they know how to stick together at the right time (just like how a virus works). PLP please note!
I totally agree with your comments on the difficulty of the task but my worry here is not the Tory party’s divisions but the fact that within the Government and the Civil Service there is a dearth of capable people going to deal with BREXIT. The prospect of using the private sector in the negotiations looms and a post BREXIT Britain created by vested interests beckons………………
The one thing that’s missing s the total absence of clear objectives and a clear strategy.
What do we actually want from this? What is a satisfactory political and commercial settlement with Europe and the wider world?
If there is no settlement that will satisfy a majority, and leave no powerful minority so incensed that they will ‘burn the house down’, these splits are inevitable.
…And in the absence of a clear goal, the ‘Hard Brexit’ will happen by default when fudging all the issues finally runs out of options.
Precisely
And that’s what the three Brexit ministers want
No wonder the tension with No 10 is already showing
Richard
I assume you to have an (informal of course) “hot-line” to sources within the Labour party, but I’d be very surprised if you also have one to messrs Johnson, Davies and Fox. If not, what’s your evidence for this opinion?
Or is it just a shot at random?
Every paper reports it
And Westminster is leaky
Surely this is ultimately all about retaining as much wriggle room as possible between now and the next general election. In other words, create/maintain the maximum scope to manipulate and manage the post Brexit “message” so that it’s all positive (outcome = election victory). On a related point, Private Eye reported that shortly after May became PM instructions went out from No.10 that no minister was to make any statement on anything without prior approval from No.10, so I assume that’s another reason why Boris has been slapped down. It appears May is a control freak – as was widely recognised from her days as Home Secretary as I understand it.
Control freaks usually fail
Is it not self evident that the PM and the Foreign Secretary have not agreed even a rudimentary exit plan; is this not incompetence of the highest order? If this was a Corbyn / Thornberry issue would we not now be hearing accusations of executive anarchy from the London based media?
We know that the majority of those who voted to leave expect immigration numbers to fall dramatically therefore until the Tories decide upon the level of immigration that they intend to accept they cannot formulate an exit plan. Do they want to continue with the current net 300,000, or plan for a net 200,000, or what?
Until they know they can’t begin to negotiate trade agreements with the EU. And they cant negotiate agreements with non EU countries until they have an EU agreement in place; because those countries will also be concerned about EU access.
The level of net immigration by 2020 is key. If this will not be known until an EU trade agreement is reached we could be looking at 2019 before we know if free movement (net 300,000 plus or minus X)will continue. Would may want to fight an election if net immigration has not been halved?
Having said that such is the lenient media treatment of May /Johnson and the incessant demonisation of Corbyn it probably would not matter.
It does seem like staggering incompetence – you are right
The TTIP negotiations have been pretty secretive, it is worth noting that there will not be 27 countries to leak the information: just the single Brussels negotiating team.
True, but Brexit is far from TTIP and the British government seems to be conceited enough to believe that Britain matters to the rest of Europe – in spite of Britain not wanting to be part of it.
In fact I suggest that this is true to the extent that Britain does still provide a more open minded society than Continental Europe. And yes (drawing on the conclusions of more than a few European friends) I think this is still -just- true.
Additionally and more importantly the possibility of easy British employment has allowed a welcome release valve for the horrendous unemployment for the (non German) Eurozone.
I too fear the immigration stop will not allow a soft Brexit, unless the government finally realises that an increasing population needs additional government money. Cameron didn’t (which I think was the main reason Brexit occurred) so there is only a folorn hope hope that this lot might realise what is so desperately needed. For me only increased government expenditure has the prospect of allowing a ‘soft’ Brexit and if delayed long enough, might even allow us to remain…
https://mishtalk.com/2016/09/23/us-eu-trade-talks-de-facto-dead/