FT.com / Investments - Shares lack stimulus for further gains.
As the FT notes:
UK equities will struggle to build upon their 18 per cent gain in 2009, held back by weak economic growth, the withdrawal of stimulus measures, and the weight of government and consumer debt, analysts warn.
So that's one near certain fall for 2010, as I've predicted before.
Bonds are also in for a bashing. Quantitative easing will reduce demand. Prices will fall. Yields will rise. And another investment product will see a downturn.
If the Tories get in business will be decimated. So business property values will fall. Another sector closed.
That leaves cash. That's about the one bolt hole there is for investors. And its contribution to well being is limited.
So if the markets lead a double dip is nigh on certain.
That's the outlook for 2010.
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cash is far from a bolt hole while the printing presses are working overtime …
On Dec 25 (a good day for it) Market Oracle had an item suggesting that the conditions were in place for a sharp rise in food prices in 2010 which could have some significant knock on effects. For those of us with long memories it is interesting to wonder what would happen if food costs reverted to mid 20th Century or earlier proportions of household spending.
@ catsick
We are in a liquidity trap and so the printing presses are no threat to the value of our cash. Think Japan.
“If the Tories get in business will be decimated.”
Crass and ridiculous. Labour is crushing business with taxes cheered on by you.
But Guido, your friend Tim Worstall tells me business does not pay tax
So how can you be right?
NI hike for a start.
“So that’s one near certain fall for 2010, as I’ve predicted before.”
That’s a bit disingenuous when you have been predicting a fall all the way from 3,300 to the present level. Having been ACTUALLY wrong the whole time you now claim to be right on the basis of something that hasn’t happened yet.
I suspect the year will be pretty flat. The FTSE is dominated by miners these days, and the price of Rio Tinto, BP, Shell and the smaller oilers like Cairn really has nothing to do with the UK economy.
Shares prices go up and down. All that matters is buying low and selling high. The rest is noise.
[…] Fawkes has commented on this blog this morning, saying: “If the Tories get in business will be […]
Does anyone make money based on these kind of predictions? They are useless if you ask me.
Go with the trend, until it ends. Much simpler and most of all less risky.
[…] Fawkes has commented on this blog this morning, saying: “If the Tories get in business will be […]