15.15 This is my ‘off the cuff’ reaction to what is being said, as it happens.
I’ll update it regularly as the afternoon progresses.
15.35 Bank losses will be $3 trillion.
15.40 FSA will look at accounting rules
15.42 Crown Dependencies impose cost without making payment to Exchequer – regulation will be looked at and Commission is looking at this for the spring. But I doubt it is enough.
15.43 £100 billion has been made available to banks. Rights issues will be easier in future though
15.44 Claimant count is 2 million below 1990s – I think he’s being optimistic.
15.45 We need a new boost for the economy as there will be a fall in output across the world: growth this year 0.75%. Next year will be in recession, at least for first two quarters but expect -1% growth
15.45 Inflation will be 0.5% next year
15.45 Growth will recover in 2010 – too late for Labour who go to the polls in May 2010
15.46 At least he hits the Tories hard
15.46 Yvette Cooper looks knackered sitting behind him
15.46 £20 billion fiscal stimulus announced
15.47 Claims the rule was met over the last cycle but now we have a new one, and is relaxing them
15.48 Will recover in the medium term he says: has a ‘temporary operating rule’ to restore balance – I think he means a flipping big loan account – to be repaid by 2015 – 2016
15.48 Confirms 1998 objectives on growth etc
15.48 35% less tax from finance sector this year – that’s £4 billion of corporation tax
15.48 Borrowing £78 billion this year and £118 billion next, falling back to 105, 78 and then less. By 2015 will only borrow to invest: that’s a long recovery.
15.49 UK net debt up to 57% GDP in 2013, and then back. This is within EU rules: there is no threat on that, and a lot less than many other countries now.
15.50 Invest in economy: will still do it and supply improved services: and will raise money from efficiency savings (but he doesn’t say what)
15.51 By 2011 spending will be £680 billion
15.53 We’re getting to the nitty-gritty
15.54 £3 billion capital brought forward for motorways, housing and schools + energy efficiency – not really a green new deal – far too little in fact – a mere token gesture
15.55 Will cut VAT – to inject spending – VAT 15% to end 2009 – madness. Happens from 1.12.08. £12.5 billion – back of an envelope. Wants retailers to pass it on. Optimist.
15.56 Measures for low incomes – temporary tax cut for 10p rate will be permanent
15.58 April 2011 will increase all NIC rates by 0.5%
15.59 Raise NIC start point to income tax level
15.59 £150,000 45% income tax from April 2011 – for top 1% of incomes
16.00 Personal allowance will be restricted from £100,000 of income – a recommendation from The Missing Billions. This will be in 2011
16.01 Will increase duties on alcohol and cigarettes so prices do not fall – heavily regressive move
16.02 Economy will be in balance from 2015
16.02 Wants to create foreign dividend exemption and will improve CFC rules
16.03 Small businesses – HMRC will allow tax to be spread – all taxes if business is in trouble – for as long as they need – I hope they staff this properly
16.04 Small businesses need loans – £1 billion available to small businesses
16.05 Small company rate increase deferred
16.06 Loss claims will be carried back for 3 years so long as no more than £50,000.
16.07 Green measures – better targeted air duty – better insulation – but only £100 million – is monitoring retail prices and threatens the companies
16.09 Oil and gas for the North Oil is subject to review
16.10 Wants a low carbon world – £535 million for environmental, rail and insulation – this feels like a double count to me – but he claims he’s making 1 million green jobs – clearly he’s heard of the Carbon Army the Green New Deal has been promoting
16.12 Mortgage market guarantees – is looking to do this and rebuild the loan backed mortgage market – oh heck – do we want a state backed Granite?
16.13 Want to work out how to help people in work can keep their homes
16.13 Measures will be taken on repossession – no action until arrears have happened for three months – no time at all
16.14 £15 million for debt advice – won’t go far
16.15 £200,000 mortgages will be covered when people lose jobs – still seems incredibly low in London
16.15 Cover extended to some second mortgages
16.16 More social housing – essential – however unpopular with some – life is not possible without good housing and it’s beyond the means of far too many
16.17 Better training – but this sounds half hearted and I suspect not new
16.19 Cars – will limit some duty increases – I think that’s absurd – we need to tackle green issues now
16.20 Saving – saving gateway – 8 million people will get 50p added for every £1 saved – but so cumbersome it’s going to have little impact
16.22 Some benefit increases brought forward – but a phone call prevented me hearing what
16.23 Still says will eradicate child poverty – abolishing the domicile rule will pay for this
16.24 Increase in pension credit and pensions – above inflation at highest rate in the year – which is fair
16.25 Child benefit goes up from January – what will I spend it on?
16.26 £60 pension bonus in January
He sits down
3 Responses to “The Pre-Budget Report”
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[...] thought are here, but what’s the rest of the UK blogosphere saying? Mick Fealty, Richard Murphy, Conservative Home and Lib Dem Voice are watching closely [...]
I don’t know how Darling said all that with a straight face. Out of recession by Q3 2009? And 2% growth in 2010? What planet is the guy on? This government has got to be just about the most economically incompetent the country has ever seen.
[...] Rob know I would be live blogging the event. He in turn posted a live list of the major changes. Richard Murphy joined in the fun. The TUC Touchstone blog picked up the beat, noting still others who were [...]