{"id":91496,"date":"2026-04-08T11:19:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T10:19:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=91496"},"modified":"2026-04-08T11:19:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T10:19:43","slug":"why-this-may-not-be-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2026\/04\/08\/why-this-may-not-be-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Why this may not be peace"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have just published this short video<\/a> on YouTube and other channels.<\/p>\n

This is the transcript:<\/p>\n

\n

There is a supposed Middle East peace plan on the table today. I don\u2019t know whether it\u2019s going to work. I\u2019m not convinced it will. This plan is uncertain. We don\u2019t even know what the terms are, and we don\u2019t know if Israel will be bound by it, and that is a requirement that Iran has imposed inside this plan.<\/p>\n

The consequence is that the celebrations of peace this morning do look to me to be very misplaced.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump needed a peace plan; he needed to get out of the threat of genocide that he had made. He needs to be held accountable for that still, but the reality is that this peace plan may be an illusion.<\/p>\n

The fact is that Israel is determined on war, and if it is, this peace plan will fail very obviously within days. Hostilities will resume.<\/p>\n

The current belief inside world markets that there is going to be peace, and that the oil price can fall and that share prices can rise, that optimism can return in other words, is completely misplaced, and all of this ignores one essential point.<\/p>\n

The USA has surrendered under the terms of this peace plan. We know it has. It has agreed to withdraw from its bases in the Gulf. That looks like a surrender in any normal terms.<\/p>\n

It has also agreed to pay reparations to Iran.<\/p>\n

It has ceded control of the Straits of Hormuz to Iran.<\/p>\n

It is going to allow it to charge shipping to go through those Straits, which was not the case before the 28th of February.<\/p>\n

This is a massive failure on the part of Donald Trump. Will the world forget that? Will the US forget that? Will he forget that? Will he try to take retribution in some form? None of this is known.<\/p>\n

Can we live with the idea that Iran is now a major world power? Again, we don\u2019t know. I don\u2019t know. This is a big change in the world order.<\/p>\n

This morning, we are living with a peace that looks like something which is dramatically different from anything that we have known before. A diminished USA, an enormously inflated Iran and Israel out of control.<\/p>\n

Can we manage this situation? That is the question of the day, and my answer is we can only wait and see. But don\u2019t hang your hats on peace as yet.<\/p>\n

This looks to me as though this is a temporary pause given to Donald Trump by Iran to let him off the hook with regard to the threat of annihilation that he put in place. That\u2019s something that Iran needed Donald Trump to back away from, but it doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019ve got peace, and this peace plan does not look viable to me.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have just published this short video on YouTube and other channels. This is the transcript: There is a supposed Middle East peace plan on
 Read the full article…<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,35,16,203,106,75],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-corruption","category-economics","category-ethics","category-fascism","category-politics","category-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91496"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91496\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91499,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91496\/revisions\/91499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}