Who will succeed Starmer? He will go. I cannot see any alternative. Labour MPs will now realise that their futures depend entirely on him going.\u00a0 I gather these are the odds:<\/p>\n
| Contender<\/th>\n | Indicative odds<\/th>\n | Market view<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner \u2013 former deputy leader; senior figure<\/td>\n | Around favourite in many markets<\/td>\n | Higher probability of succeeding Starmer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Wes Streeting \u2013 Shadow Health Secretary<\/td>\n | 5\/2\u20137\/2 in some markets<\/td>\n | Strong contender<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Andy Burnham \u2013 Mayor of Greater Manchester (if he returns to Parliament)<\/td>\n | 7\/1 or similar<\/td>\n | Longer shot but recognised name<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Rachel Reeves \u2013 senior economic figure<\/td>\n | Around 7\/1 in some books<\/td>\n | Competitive contender<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Yvette Cooper \/ Lisa Nandy \/ others<\/td>\n | Double-figure odds<\/td>\n | Less likely on market terms<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Let's be clear:<\/p>\n 1) Rayner cannot run. She is still under tax investigation.<\/p>\n 2) Streeting cannot run. He is tainted by his links to Mandelson, his failure as health secretary, his whiny character, his lack of support in Labour, and his lack of a safe seat.<\/p>\n 3) Burnham is not an MP. Nor is he likely to become one.<\/p>\n 4) The idea that Reeves - the most unpopular current cabinet minister with the public - could lead Labour is absurd.<\/p>\n 5) The also-rans won't even get into the stalls.<\/p>\n Where does that leave Labour? Rudderless, helpless and utterly unable to govern.<\/p>\n What should they do? I suggest this agenda:<\/p>\n 1) Form a national government, or at the very least, a loose coalition of the willing to keep the far right out. It is not clear that it needs a Labour leader, but if it did, Ed Miliband is the person to do it.<\/p>\n 2) Do electoral and parliamentary reform to prevent Reform from taking power.<\/p>\n 3) Put in place a budget to deliver politics for people, a politics of care and funding for the future. all of which is possible. A list of required measures could follow in a later blog.<\/p>\n 4) Agree to the demands of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and pass a Referendum Act to grant them the right to leave the Union.<\/p>\n 5) Clip the wings of the Royal prerogative, inclduing the role of Royalty.<\/p>\n 6) Only then consider an election.<\/p>\n By doing that, credibility might be restored by signalling a real change of heart. Otherwise, Labour and the country are in deep trouble, and Starmer will deliver what I have always thought he wants, which is a far-right government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" |