{"id":89627,"date":"2026-02-01T07:56:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-01T07:56:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=89627"},"modified":"2026-02-01T17:42:41","modified_gmt":"2026-02-01T17:42:41","slug":"what-if-trump-suspends-us-democracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2026\/02\/01\/what-if-trump-suspends-us-democracy\/","title":{"rendered":"What if Trump suspends US democracy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

G. Elliot Morris is a psephologist (polling analyst) in the USA. As he noted in a post I was notified of overnight<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County \u2014 a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per\u00a0The Downballot<\/a>. As I\u2019m writing this, approximately 99% of the vote has been counted, and Rehmet carried the seat 57.2% vs his Republican challenger, Leigh Wambsganss, at 42.8%. That\u2019s a 14.4-point margin, and a 31.4-point swing vs Harris\u2019s margin in 2024 (if you ignore votes for minor-party candidates, the swing rounds up to\u00a0D+32<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

This swing of 32 points from Trump\u2019s 2024 performance is the largest Democratic overperformance in a competitive special election since Trump took office.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As he notes, this is in effect a by-election in UK terms. The swing may be exceptional, but it is still extraordinary. After excluding the exceptional factors and attempting to forecast a broad-based swing, he projects a 7% swing to the Democrats. As he notes, that could be enough to swing hardcore Republican Texas to the Democrats.<\/p>\n

He adds caveats, though:<\/p>\n

Of course, lots of assumptions are being made here, so don\u2019t consider this a concrete prediction. I\u2019ve done the same analysis in other special elections and it usually suggests something more D-leaning.<\/p>\n

The point is: a big wave is gathering. For Democrats, tonight is another piece of evidence that the 2026 midterms are going to be a good year for them (if the elections are free and fair, which is not guaranteed).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So, four thoughts.<\/p>\n

First, people have seen fascism, and they don't like it.<\/p>\n

Second, this is now being confirmed in growing swings in real polls.<\/p>\n

Third, what will the fascists do in response? We know that Trump is no fan of democracy. Will he let it happen?<\/p>\n

Fourth, what if he does not, in the face of growing evidence that he will lose badly?<\/p>\n

The fallout does not bear thinking about with ICE on the streets as Trump's Gestapo<\/del> private army.<\/p>\n

\n

Additional note:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

I have just noted that I am not the only person to comment on G. Elliott Morris' post on this election. Heather Cox Richardson, in her overnight Letter from an American<\/a>, noted this:<\/em><\/p>\n

Tonight, voters flipped a seat in the Texas Senate from Republican to Democratic in a special election. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinist, defeated right-wing Republican Leigh Wambsganss for a seat that Republicans have held since the early 1990s. Robert Downen of\u00a0Texas Monthly\u00a0noted that in the final days of the campaign, the Wambsganss campaign spent $310,000 while Rehmet spent nothing, and Daniel Nichanian of\u00a0BoltsMag\u00a0posted that overall, Wambsganss spent nearly $2.2 million more than Rehmet in the campaign. Both Texas governor Greg Abbott and Trump himself publicly supported Wambsganss.<\/em><\/p>\n

And yet, as G. Elliott Morris<\/a>of\u00a0Strength in Numbers\u00a0noted, voters flipped a district that Trump won in 2024 by 17 points to Rehmet, electing him by a 14.4-point margin. After removing the minor-party candidates in the vote, the swing from the Republican in 2024 was 32 points toward the Democrats. In Texas.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The spending data is significant: money cannot buy Trump love.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G. Elliot Morris is a psephologist (polling analyst) in the USA. As he noted in a post I was notified of overnight: Democratic candidate Taylor
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