{"id":89169,"date":"2026-01-14T09:44:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T09:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=89169"},"modified":"2026-01-14T09:44:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T09:44:31","slug":"wales-has-had-enough-of-english-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2026\/01\/14\/wales-has-had-enough-of-english-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Wales has had enough of English politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

This opinion poll, from ITV in Wales<\/a>, published yesterday, is very encouraging with regard to the Senedd election coming up in May 2026:<\/p>\n

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Comparisons are to ITV's last poll, in September 2025.<\/p>\n

The resulting seat projection makes it clear that a PC \/ Green government is most likely.<\/p>\n

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As ITV reports:<\/p>\n

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Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: \"This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14-point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention\u2014a significant shift from when the two parties appeared neck and neck.<\/p>\n

\"While any single poll should come with a health warning and this may be something of an outlier, it continues broader trends we're seeing in Welsh polling, where Plaid Cymru have enjoyed a modest boost, and trends in England, where Reform support appears to be plateauing while the Greens have surged.<\/p>\n

\"Two patterns are particularly noteworthy. First, the gains for both the Greens and Plaid Cymru appear to be drawing from voters who were previously undecided, rather than coming from other parties.<\/p>\n

\"Second, Plaid Cymru seem to be consolidating their position as the party best placed to challenge Reform UK \u201457% of respondents in our sample identified them as such.\"<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

ITV also noted Westminster voting intentions in Wales from YouGov, as follows:<\/p>\n

Westminster voting intention for people in Wales (YouGov MRP Model):<\/p>\n