{"id":83457,"date":"2025-06-26T07:39:59","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T06:39:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=83457"},"modified":"2025-06-26T07:39:59","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T06:39:59","slug":"how-long-for-starmer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/06\/26\/how-long-for-starmer\/","title":{"rendered":"How long for Starmer?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The front page of The Times this morning notes Labour MPs calling for 'regime change'.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Let me caveat that. First, this is The Times. They are no lovers of Labour.<\/p>\n

Second, this is what I am hearing. The discussion is open, accelerating, and expectations of timescales are getting shorter. The thought was that Starmer would go in 2026, having more than outstayed his welcome. Now the expectation is shorter.<\/p>\n

You can only claim to be Labour and act as if you're a Tory\/Reform hybrid for so long, and eventually, you push those who have a vestigial recall of what Labour was supposed to be about too far. Has that happened as yet? I am not sure. To be candid, I think the summer recess will probably save Starmer for now, presuming, as is inevitable, that he backs down in some way next week, as I suspect he will.<\/p>\n

But the damage will have been done, and it will be deep-seated enough that I very much doubt that he, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall, and those most associated with Starmer as regular mouthpieces (Streeting, Reynolds, and maybe others) can survive this.<\/p>\n

When will the coup happen, if not now? That is obviously hard to tell, but all those MPs who have found both sufficient cover and courage now to attack Starmer will never be as compliant again. They will realise that having at the Party's helm people who were willing to sacrifice disabled people to the great god of balanced budgets will not be forgotten by the electorate.<\/p>\n

They will also notice what has happened in New York<\/a>. They might realise that a little red water between them and the Tory\/Reform position might be good for Labour. And then Starmer will be gone. His chance of fighting the next election now is near zero.<\/p>\n

What has done for him? Three things.<\/p>\n

First, his total hypocrisy is claiming to support the positions of Jeremy Corbyn, and then abandoning them all and having Corbyn ejected from the party.<\/p>\n

Second, is his total inability to choose chief executives for his operations capable of delivering anything that looks to be remotely Labour at all.\u00a0 Sue Gray was a disaster, not appearing to understand politics. And Morgan McSweeney only appears to understand what the far right wants, hence the debacle now in play.<\/p>\n

Third, Starmer lacks the essential quality of a good leader, which is a moral compass and the understanding to let that become apparent in ways that mean people comprehend just what the prime minister stands for. Starmer appears to stand for nothing, not even his own survival. All he has done is serve the balanced budget, and deep down, people do not believe in that.<\/p>\n

So, Starmer will go. Of the Labour MPs not on the government payroll, approximately half have now shown their willingness to stand up to him. It is quite reasonable to think some in the payroll would be delighted to see the back of him (Yvette Cooper, more than any other).<\/p>\n

Starmer will join Boris Johnson in having won a large, effectively meaningless, majority in the Commons and not seeing out his term. No one will mourn his departure, except Morgan McSweeney, maybe, although I am sure Farage has a job lined up for him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The front page of The Times this morning notes Labour MPs calling for ‘regime change’. Let me caveat that. First, this is The Times. They
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