{"id":82768,"date":"2025-06-01T07:35:19","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T06:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=82768"},"modified":"2025-06-01T07:35:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T06:35:19","slug":"uncertainty-risk-and-misplaced-assumptions-on-data-and-rationality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/06\/01\/uncertainty-risk-and-misplaced-assumptions-on-data-and-rationality\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty, risk and misplaced assumptions on data and rationality"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/05\/31\/a-note-to-trolling-actuaries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">discussion on pension fund management here over the last day or two<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>My suggestions when making my comments were threefold:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Risk is not the same as uncertainty.<\/li>\n<li>Uncertainty describes situations where outcomes are inherently unknowable, and these exist in defined benefit pension schemes, even in run-off.<\/li>\n<li>The realities of law, trust relationships and fiduciary duty have to be taken into account.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>To put it another way:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Risk refers to s<\/span>ituations where outcomes can be assigned probabilities based on known distributions.<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Uncertainty exists in s<\/span>cenarios where outcomes are not quantifiable due to a lack of reliable data or unprecedented events.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I really do not think this should be so hard to understand, but it appears that it is, even though this is very basic stuff, and the intellectual foundation of a lot of what Keynes did to upset neoclassical economics.<\/p>\n<p>My contention is that there is uncertainty in the management of even closed, defined benefit pension funds. Again, why this is so hard to comprehend is very hard to work out.<\/p>\n<p>What really scares me is how many of the claims being made by those seeking to criticise me are so profoundly reminiscent of the misplaced beliefs commonplace in the City of London before the global financial crisis of 2008 erupted.<\/p>\n<p>As was clear after the event, almost all the assumptions that markets made before that crash were inappropriate. The errors made were summarised in March 2009 in a report prepared by Adair Turner (Lord Turner), who was then working with the Financial Services Authority.<\/p>\n<p>I have cited section 1.4 of his report to highlight this issue when teaching in the past, because I think it is such a good summary of what went wrong.<\/p>\n<p>On Saturday night, when writing this, I used Chat GPT to summarise the key points, as follows:<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><b>A summary of Adair Turner\u2019s key discussion on the difference between risk and uncertainty<\/b><span class=\"s1\"> in The Turner Review, particularly from section <\/span><b>1.4(iii): Misplaced reliance on sophisticated maths<\/b><span class=\"s1\">:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><em><b>Turner\u2019s Key Points on Risk vs. Uncertainty<\/b><\/em><\/h3>\n<h4><em><b>Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty<\/b><\/em><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Turner highlights a <span class=\"s1\"><b>foundational critique<\/b><\/span> of financial risk modelling: it treats the future as though it were governed by <span class=\"s1\"><b>probabilistically predictable patterns<\/b><\/span> derived from the past.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>He argues that this approach is <span class=\"s1\"><b>methodologically flawed<\/b><\/span> when applied to financial markets, which are influenced by <span class=\"s1\"><b>social and economic behaviour<\/b><\/span>, not physical laws.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p><em><span class=\"s3\"><b>Risk<\/b><\/span> refers to situations where the probability distribution of outcomes is known and can be mathematically modeled (e.g. dice rolls, insurance tables).<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><em><span class=\"s3\"><b>Uncertainty<\/b><\/span> (or \u201cKnightian uncertainty\u201d) refers to situations where the distribution of possible outcomes is <span class=\"s3\"><b>inherently unknowable<\/b><\/span> or non-repeatable \u2014 especially relevant in finance where market behaviors are influenced by human psychology, feedback loops, and system-wide interactions.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<hr \/>\n<h4><em><b>Flaws in Financial Models<\/b><\/em><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p5\"><em>Turner critiques models such as <span class=\"s3\"><b>Value at Risk (VaR)<\/b><\/span> for assuming:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Past patterns can reliably forecast future events.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\">Events are <\/span><b>independent<\/b><span class=\"s1\"> and <\/span><b>normally distributed<\/b><span class=\"s1\">.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Risks are largely <span class=\"s1\"><b>idiosyncratic<\/b><\/span> (firm-specific) rather than <span class=\"s1\"><b>systemic<\/b><\/span>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p5\"><em>In reality:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Distributions in markets may have <span class=\"s1\"><b>fat tails<\/b><\/span> \u2014 i.e. extreme events are more likely than predicted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Risks are often <span class=\"s1\"><b>systemic<\/b><\/span>, with one institution\u2019s behaviour affecting others.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\"><em>This mischaracterisation meant that\u00a0<\/em><em><strong>models underestimated real-world risks<\/strong><\/em><em> just before the crisis struck.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h4><em><b>Knightian Uncertainty and Policy Implications<\/b><\/em><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>Turner refers to <span class=\"s1\"><b>Frank Knight\u2019s 1921 distinction<\/b><\/span> between risk and uncertainty to suggest that not all financial risk can be reduced to numbers.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>He asserts that the 2007\u201308 financial crisis exposed this fallacy: <span class=\"s1\"><b>regulators and institutions faced not risk, but uncertainty<\/b><\/span>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\">Because of this, <\/span><b>no model or regulation can fully eliminate financial crises<\/b><span class=\"s1\">.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>There is a need for:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>A <span class=\"s1\"><b>macro-prudential regulatory approach<\/b><\/span> (not just firm-level risk models).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em>A <span class=\"s1\"><b>backstop mechanism<\/b><\/span> (e.g., government intervention or \u201crisk socialisation\u201d) for times when uncertainty overwhelms the system.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><em><b>Supporting Sources Turner Mentions:<\/b><\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\"><b>Frank Knight<\/b><\/span> \u2013 Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\"><b>Adair Turner\u2019s own speech<\/b><\/span> \u2013 Uncertainty and Risk: Reflections on a Turbulent Year (Cass Business School, 2008)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\"><b>Benoit Mandelbrot<\/b><\/span> \u2013 The Misbehaviour of Markets<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\"><b>Nassim Taleb<\/b><\/span> \u2013 The Black Swan<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><em><b>&#x2705; Conclusion:<\/b><\/em><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\">Turner\u2019s core argument is that <\/span><b>the financial crisis revealed the limits of treating uncertainty as risk<\/b><span class=\"s1\">. Future financial oversight must recognise this and <\/span><b>rely less on mathematical models<\/b><span class=\"s1\"> and more on <\/span><b>judgment, resilience planning, and systemic safeguards<\/b><span class=\"s1\">.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>In summary, it was the lack of understanding between risk and uncertainty that helped create the 2008 financial crisis, and the same issue is being seen now.<\/p>\n<p>This is so important, <a href=\"https:\/\/webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk\/ukgwa\/20100505162038mp_\/http:\/\/www.fsa.gov.uk\/pubs\/other\/turner_review.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I also offer the original section here <\/a>(and you have to work hard now to find this report on the web). You only need to read this if you are going for a first:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82769\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09-550x566.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09-550x566.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09-291x300.png 291w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09-768x790.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09-389x400.png 389w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.09.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82781\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27-550x541.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27-550x541.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27-305x300.png 305w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27-768x755.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27-407x400.png 407w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.27.png 954w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82780\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55-550x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"553\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55-550x553.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55-768x773.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55-398x400.png 398w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.17.55.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82779\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12-550x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12-550x441.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12-374x300.png 374w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12-768x616.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12-498x400.png 498w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.12.png 952w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82778\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36-550x357.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36-550x357.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36-463x300.png 463w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36-600x389.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.36.png 962w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82777\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57-550x711.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"711\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57-550x711.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57-232x300.png 232w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57-768x993.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57-309x400.png 309w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.18.57.png 964w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82776\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21-550x707.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21-550x707.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21-233x300.png 233w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21-768x987.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21-311x400.png 311w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.21.png 968w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82775\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50-550x679.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"679\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50-550x679.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50-243x300.png 243w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50-768x949.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50-324x400.png 324w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.19.50.png 986w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82774\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24-550x720.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24-550x720.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24-229x300.png 229w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24-768x1005.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24-306x400.png 306w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.24.png 964w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82773\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39-550x608.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"608\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39-550x608.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39-271x300.png 271w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39-768x849.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39-362x400.png 362w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.39.png 948w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82772\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.57-550x193.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.57-550x193.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.57-768x269.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.57-600x210.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.20.57.png 954w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82771\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43-550x764.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"764\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43-550x764.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43-216x300.png 216w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43-768x1067.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43-288x400.png 288w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.21.43.png 966w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82770\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02-550x373.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02-550x373.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02-443x300.png 443w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02-768x520.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02-590x400.png 590w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-31-at-18.22.02.png 968w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There has been discussion on pension fund management here over the last day or two. My suggestions when making my comments were threefold: Risk is<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/06\/01\/uncertainty-risk-and-misplaced-assumptions-on-data-and-rationality\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,204,35,211,16,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-accounting","category-economic-justice","category-economics","category-education","category-ethics","category-pensions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82768"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82768\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82789,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82768\/revisions\/82789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}