{"id":81672,"date":"2025-04-16T07:15:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T06:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=81672"},"modified":"2025-04-16T07:15:08","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T06:15:08","slug":"scotland-will-not-wait-forever-to-become-independent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/04\/16\/scotland-will-not-wait-forever-to-become-independent\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotland will not wait forever to become independent"},"content":{"rendered":"

As The National newspaper in Scotland<\/a> has reported:<\/p>\n

\n

HOLYROOD will see a huge pro-independence majority of 29 MSPs after next year's elections, according to an exclusive new poll for The National.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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The survey, conducted by Find Out Now, predicted that the SNP would win 35% of the constituency share and 25% on the regional vote.<\/p>\n

While Scottish Labour came second with 15% on both, it represents a sharp drop since the last survey by the same pollster \u2013 with Anas Sarwar\u2019s party predicted to be only the fourth biggest party by MSP share as a result, behind both the Scottish Tories and the Scottish Greens<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The forecast for the 2026 Holyrood election now looks like this:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"Note that there are two votes in these elections to create proportional representation.<\/p>\n

The set outcome would be:<\/p>\n

\"\"Note, this projection is by the well-known Prof John Curtice, who is, of course, based in Scotland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

There are 129 seats in Holyrood. Sixty-five does, then, provide a majority. The SNP would have 57. The Greens and Alba are also pro-independence. Together, they would have a majority, with 79 seats, leaving 50 for the ragged bunch of pro-Union parties, including Reform, who are hardly sweeping Scotland, even with PR to assist them.<\/p>\n

Critically, the same poll found a 56-44 majority in favour of independence when don\u2019t knows are removed. If they are included, the majority is 52-41.<\/p>\n

There is a UK political crisis in the making here. Scotland will not wait forever to become independent. Westminster might think it has the right to rule over Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland forever. They may be in for a rude awakening. Even in Wales, support for independence is now running at 41 per cent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As The National newspaper in Scotland has reported: HOLYROOD will see a huge pro-independence majority of 29 MSPs after next year’s elections, according to an
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