{"id":80619,"date":"2025-03-05T07:45:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T07:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=80619"},"modified":"2025-03-05T07:45:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T07:45:27","slug":"might-the-us-be-about-to-fall-off-an-economic-cliff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/03\/05\/might-the-us-be-about-to-fall-off-an-economic-cliff\/","title":{"rendered":"Might the US be about to fall off an economic cliff?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I am grateful to Dr Tim Rideout for drawing my attention to the GDP Now forecast run by the Atlanta Fed in the USA.<\/p>\n

As they say of this<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a \"nowcast\" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.<\/p>\n

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is their latest forecast:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

They say of this:<\/p>\n

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is\u00a0-2.8 percent<\/strong>\u00a0on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning\u2019s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The obvious question to ask in response is, might the US be about to fall off an economic cliff? It would seem it is entirely possible that this is the case. So much for Making America Great Again. It would seem that the plan is about Making American Chaos Again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am grateful to Dr Tim Rideout for drawing my attention to the GDP Now forecast run by the Atlanta Fed in the USA. As
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