{"id":79822,"date":"2025-01-27T07:35:13","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T07:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=79822"},"modified":"2025-01-27T08:08:36","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T08:08:36","slug":"if-labour-is-in-a-mess-it-is-all-of-their-own-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/01\/27\/if-labour-is-in-a-mess-it-is-all-of-their-own-making\/","title":{"rendered":"If Labour is in a mess, it is all of their own making"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As if to reinforce the message <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/01\/27\/why-are-consumers-worried\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in this morning's video<\/a>, Ipsos sent me a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-uk\/news-and-events\/overview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">press release<\/a> overnight saying:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>A new Ipsos UK poll reveals widespread public pessimism about the British economy, with 77% of Britons rating the economy as \"poor.\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Widespread economic pessimism:<\/strong>\u00a0 77% of Britons describe the current state of the economy as \"poor,\" compared to just 19% who view it as \"good\u201d (net -58).\u00a0 Pessimism has gradually grown since last summer and has now returned to where it was in March 2024 before the election.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Blame game:<\/strong>\u00a0Those who view the economy negatively are almost equally as likely to blame decisions made by the current Labour government under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves (42%) as they are to blame the previous Conservative government of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (44%). There has been an 18 ppt increase in those citing the decisions made by the current Labour government since August 2024. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (49%) still receives the most blame, while Brexit (45%), the Conservative party's economic policies overall since 2010 (40%), the war in Ukraine (40%) and the state of the global economy (38%) are also cited as major contributing factors in the country\u2019s economic state.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>They supplied this data to support their conclusions:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-79823\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/unnamed-1-550x310.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/unnamed-1-550x310.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/unnamed-1-533x300.png 533w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/unnamed-1-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/unnamed-1.png 602w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There is some realism in there. That said, there is no comfort for Starmer or Reeves. Even if external factors or past dire choices (Brexit) are seen as significant, there is growing evidence that people do not think that Labour has got a grip on the economy.<\/p>\n<p>I happen to think that is right. Whilst seeing much change from Labour as yet might have been a bit much to expect, the pessimism is soundly placed in the absence of any coherent ideas, Labour's massive negativity, over-focus on book-balancing, and the failure to deliver any initiatives that might actually make the lives of most people in the UK even a little bit better.<\/p>\n<p>Other data reinforces this feeling of consumer negativity. As the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/baef306a-be98-4426-aece-1d60aab78646?shareType=nongift\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FT has noted<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>One in five UK-listed companies sounded the alarm on profits in 2024, underlining the impact of rising costs and businesses\u2019 reluctance to commit to optional spending.<\/p>\n<p>A total of 19 per cent of London-listed companies issued profit warnings, the third highest proportion this century and exceeded only by the figures in 2001 and 2020 when the dotcom bust and pandemic hurt performance, according to a report published by EY-Parthenon on Monday.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That looks like a warning sign of recession to come.<\/p>\n<p>There is also a clear indication of stress around this issue within Labour, where the likelihood of there being any real warmth for Labour's sudden conversion to a policy of airport expansion in the south-east of England alone seems very unlikely to have much support from MPs. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/45da1378-8997-44cb-9b0e-619eb118daf6?shareType=nongift\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The FT<\/a>, again, notes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Rachel Reeves will on Monday call on Labour MPs to back her plans to boost growth, including a highly contentious proposal to expand Heathrow airport.<\/p>\n<p>The chancellor is facing criticism from some in her party for allegedly siding with business over consumers and for backing a third runway at Britain\u2019s busiest airport, amid fears it could hit the government\u2019s environmental objectives.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The country is facing a downturn. People's lives are being squeezed by excessive costs, the biggest of which are the result of the Bank of England's deliberate policy of inflating interest rates to way in excess of where they need to be. Public services are being allowed to fail, and the answer is to build new vanity projects in the form of airport runways that will not deliver results for years and which will make holidays for the decreasing number who can afford them more expensive. As coherent economic thinking goes, this is absurd.<\/p>\n<p>The answer is, as Colin Hines put it in his letter to the Guardian, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/01\/27\/what-is-the-end-goal-of-growth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published this morning<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>What exactly is the end goal of growth? The response should be an increase in economic activity directed predominantly towards rebuilding public services and turbocharging a green transition.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That would make sense to people. People would see the gain. They would know things for which the government was responsible were working. Their confidence in it would rise. Knowing that their basic needs could be met, they might be willing to spend more. But, as it is, they won't. And Rachel Reeves is simply making matters worse.<\/p>\n<p>If Labour is in a mess, it is all of their own making.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As if to reinforce the message in this morning&#8217;s video, Ipsos sent me a press release overnight saying: A new Ipsos UK poll reveals widespread<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2025\/01\/27\/if-labour-is-in-a-mess-it-is-all-of-their-own-making\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,118,106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-labour","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79822"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79832,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79822\/revisions\/79832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}