{"id":79183,"date":"2024-12-18T09:21:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T09:21:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=79183"},"modified":"2024-12-18T09:21:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T09:21:27","slug":"the-bank-of-england-knew-inflation-was-going-to-rise-now-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2024\/12\/18\/the-bank-of-england-knew-inflation-was-going-to-rise-now-in-february\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bank of England knew inflation was going to rise now – in February"},"content":{"rendered":"

This chart comes from the Monetary Policy Committee quarterly report to the Bank of England published in early August 2024<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It shows that the Bank knew that inflation was going to rise at the end of this year, and then descend steadily thereafter.<\/p>\n

For the record, this version of that chart was published by them in May<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It shows the same pattern. The Bank knew inflation would be increasing now, six months ago.<\/p>\n

In fact, they knew this in February, because this is the chart from then<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So, let's go back a year<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

They thought then that the rate would be higher now than it is.<\/p>\n

So, there are three conclusions.<\/p>\n

First, today's inflation increase is not news.<\/p>\n

Second, inflation is well under control, and lower than expected.<\/p>\n

Third, there is no reason for rates to remain high as a result.<\/p>\n

But will Andrew Bailey listen? I doubt it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This chart comes from the Monetary Policy Committee quarterly report to the Bank of England published in early August 2024: It shows that the Bank
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