{"id":65355,"date":"2022-10-24T08:07:13","date_gmt":"2022-10-24T07:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=65355"},"modified":"2022-10-24T08:07:19","modified_gmt":"2022-10-24T07:07:19","slug":"sunak-will-be-terrible-and-unless-labour-changes-tack-he-could-win-despite-that","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2022\/10\/24\/sunak-will-be-terrible-and-unless-labour-changes-tack-he-could-win-despite-that\/","title":{"rendered":"Sunak will be terrible, and unless Labour changes tack he could win despite that"},"content":{"rendered":"

I posted this thread<\/a> on Twitter this morning:<\/p>\n

\n

At the time of writing it seems very likely that Rishi Sunak will become prime minister today. Some thoughts on what we might expect from him seem appropriate. A thread\u2026..<\/p>\n

As I predicted, Johnson pulled out of this race. The suggestion that he was ever in it was never reality confirmed. The claim that he had 100 nominations was almost certainly a lie. His suggestion that he will still be back is just a fantasy. He is finished.<\/p>\n

So too, I think, are Penny Mordaunts\u2019 chances. I have a fear that she will gain 100 nominations and force a vote, with the racist Tory membership then repeating the Truss fiasco by voting her in against MPs\u2019 wishes. That would create more mayhem. But I hope it doubt it\u2019ll happen.<\/p>\n

So, we will get Sunak. If that happens he has one thing going for him, which is that a majority of Tory MPs might want him in office. That might give a few weeks of stability, at least. Thereafter everything about his premiership looks likely to be grim.<\/p>\n

The likelihood that the warring factions in the Tories will unite around Sunak is remote. In an effort to appease them he will accommodate many far right-demands. I expect Braverman to be back. I fear very strongly for human rights. He will buy the Tory members by abusing them.<\/p>\n

Economically, he will deliver austerity. I suspect he will keep Hunt in office. They agree on crushing public spending. Fear for the NHS, education, benefits, pensions, public sector employees and so much else. Destruction is their chosen path for public services.<\/p>\n

Fear too for borrowers. These two will not challenge the Bank of England plan to increase interest rates with devastating consequences for millions of households, whether in mortgage or rent payments. Businesses will fail and unemployment will rise. This will be Sunak\u2019s choice.<\/p>\n

What else will happen in this wasteland Sunak will create? Brexit will be pursued. There will be conflict over Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n

Scotland\u2019s wishes will also be defied as part of a flag waving exercise to prove loyalty to England.<\/p>\n

And what there will not be is any policy to tackle the other problems we face, in addition to those Sunak will create all on his own. Covid? Forget it. Climate change? Leave it to the grandchildren. Productivity? For business to solve. And inequality? More, please, he will say.<\/p>\n

Anything necessary to address any real issue we have will be sacrificed to austerity.I forecast a terrible two years with Sunak as a result.<\/p>\n

But, and I can\u2019t stress it enough: there will be wins for him. In particular, if he lasts two years inflation will be down. It will not because of anything he has done or will do. It will just fade away, as it always does.<\/p>\n

But do not doubt that in 2024 he will use this as the basis for his claim to re-election, saying all the damage was a necessary price to pay for something that was always going to happen anyway. And people will believe him. Labour will have no easy ride by then.<\/p>\n

All those who look at polls now and think Labour is guaranteed 2024 are, I suggest, seriously mistaken. I don\u2019t think so. The English like being punished by the wealthy. And large numbers will be persuaded by the claim inflation was the enemy Sunak will have beaten.<\/p>\n

So Labour had better have something good to say. Talking about incidental tax changes, which is their current policy line, will not work. Nor will talk of sound money, because Sunak will win that one by 2024. So they really had better say what they will do now.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s that, or Sunak could destroy vast amounts of value in this country and leave us devastated and still win in 2024 because all Labour would, on current trajectories do is offer more austerity to follow Sunak\u2019s whilst saying how sorry they were to do it.<\/p>\n

Sunak is a pure neoliberal. He is going to unleash its power to destroy more than any other prime minister to date. But we have an opposition too frightened to use the government\u2019s power to create money to unleash the potential in our economy for public good.<\/p>\n

If that is the case neoliberalism might win with Sunak despite all the harm he will do, because Labour\u2019s wholly inadequate and similarly wholly neoliberal economic policy will permit that.<\/p>\n

That is my fear this morning. Without any form of effective economic opposition (and that fairly describes Labour right now) Sunak promises to be the most terrible and simultaneously electorally successful prime minister imaginable. Worry. ENDS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I posted this thread on Twitter this morning: At the time of writing it seems very likely that Rishi Sunak will become prime minister today.
 Read the full article…<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96,35,118,106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conservatives","category-economics","category-labour","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65355\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}