On 17 July there were 54,674 new Covid cases. There were forecasts that cases could reach well over 100,000 a day. On the basis of reasonable exponential growth expectations that seemed likely. And on July 25 there were 29,173 cases.<\/p>\n
What is happening? No one can be sure. Hospital admissions and deaths are, of course, lagged, so they will still rise for a while even if this data is true, which it could be.<\/p>\n
And, there again, it might not be. Let's consider those possibilities.<\/p>\n
First, schools in England, and more especially the parents of schoolchildren in England, are not requiring testing anymore as it is summer holiday. So who knows if there are cases there?<\/p>\n
Second, people want their summer holidays. Why are they going to get tested, which might prevent that?<\/p>\n
Third, they are told there is a 'pingdemic' so they delete the NHS app and do not report that they have a positive test, even if they have one.<\/p>\n
And fourth, they just don't care anymore: they are now convinced reporting having Covid does not help, so they are not doing so.<\/p>\n
What is the chance that these factors are the dominant strain in the reactions to 'Freedom Day'? Right now I think they are likely. And as evidence, I note that the so-called Zoe app<\/a>, which measures case rates voluntarily reported by a rather self-selected cohort, thinks that they are still rising. https:\/\/covid.joinzoe.com\/data#interactive-map<\/p>\n Let's be clear: I do not know what is happening. But given all the narratives that are being pumped out by the government and media I think the likelihood that cases are simply not being reported anymore is very high indeed. And that is worrying.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"