{"id":53692,"date":"2020-10-28T08:28:33","date_gmt":"2020-10-28T08:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=53692"},"modified":"2020-10-28T08:28:33","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T08:28:33","slug":"we-are-heading-for-5-million-unemployed-and-a-fixation-with-balanced-budgets-will-mean-that-cost-will-have-to-be-accounted-for-by-economists-who-have-doomed-these-people-to-despair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2020\/10\/28\/we-are-heading-for-5-million-unemployed-and-a-fixation-with-balanced-budgets-will-mean-that-cost-will-have-to-be-accounted-for-by-economists-who-have-doomed-these-people-to-despair\/","title":{"rendered":"We are heading for 5 million unemployed and a fixation with balanced budgets will mean that cost will have to be accounted for by economists who have doomed these people to despair"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Resolution Foundation has a new report out this morning<\/a> on the job market and the impact of furlough.<\/p>\n

As they note, unemployment is now increasing heavily, most especially amongst the young:<\/p>\n

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Tellingly, in September 18% of those who were employed at the start of the coronavirus are still impacted:<\/p>\n

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It is no surprise that those already least well off are worst hit:<\/p>\n

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The number of those still furloughed was falling:<\/p>\n

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I would expect a very rapid upward change if that were now possible.<\/p>\n

We also now face the very real risk of significant under-employment:<\/p>\n

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That finding is replicated amongst the self-employed, where things look very tough:<\/p>\n

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In that case this outcome is unsurprising:<\/p>\n

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It's also unsurprising that finding a new job is getting harder, most especially if you are young:<\/p>\n

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I wish that this were not true:<\/p>\n

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So what to conclude?<\/p>\n

The Resolution Foundation takes the view that the last chart - those told they face redundancy - is telling and that risk could be of this order. That means well over 10% additional redundancy is likely - with the self-employed contributing a significant additional number. All told that is easily 3 million or more jobs at risk, making my forecast of more than 5 million unemployed look uncomfortably possible.<\/p>\n

The Resolution Foundation make these recommendations:<\/p>\n