{"id":52423,"date":"2020-08-26T07:18:03","date_gmt":"2020-08-26T06:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/?p=52423"},"modified":"2020-08-26T07:18:03","modified_gmt":"2020-08-26T06:18:03","slug":"today-is-gersday-the-day-when-the-government-expenditure-and-revenue-scotland-statement-is-published","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2020\/08\/26\/today-is-gersday-the-day-when-the-government-expenditure-and-revenue-scotland-statement-is-published\/","title":{"rendered":"Today is GERSday &#8211; the day when the Government Expenditure and  Revenue Scotland statement is published"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For the last few years I have been involved in debate on the quality of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland statement. It is how I first got involved in Scottish issues. I realised that the statement was simply wrong. So I said so, with reasons attached.<\/p>\n<p>Today sees the publication of the latest statement. It will be wrong. I gave some reasons why in a Twitter thread this morning:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-52425\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-550x896.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-550x896.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-184x300.png 184w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-768x1251.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-943x1536.png 943w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04-246x400.png 246w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.04.png 1184w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-52424\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.23-550x287.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.23-550x287.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.23-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.23-600x313.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-26-at-07.08.23.png 1176w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But it's worse than this. Because as I noted last year, what GERS claims is that Scotland is responsible for most of the UK's deficit:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Table 1 told me most of what you need to know. It shows the net fiscal balances of Scotland and the UK as a whole since 1999. As GERS defines it:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/21\/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit\/screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09-48-05\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-45922\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-45922\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.48.05-550x299.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.48.05-550x299.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.48.05-768x417.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.48.05-600x326.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.48.05.png 1428w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"299\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Let me plot this, using the more extended time series data in the supporting files that the GERS web site provides. I have simply compared the two figures for Scotland with the UK as a whole net fiscal balance for each year:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/21\/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit\/screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09-45-02\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-45923\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-45923\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02-550x535.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02-550x535.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02-308x300.png 308w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02-768x747.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02-411x400.png 411w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.45.02.png 1246w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"535\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I'll be candid: that makes not one iota of sense. For the record this is the proportion of population of the UK as a whole living in Scotland according to official estimates:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2019\/08\/21\/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit\/screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09-52-41\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-45924\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-45924\" src=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.52.41-550x128.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.52.41-550x128.png 550w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.52.41-768x179.png 768w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.52.41-600x140.png 600w, https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/Screenshot-2019-08-21-at-09.52.41.png 1462w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"128\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>What GERS is asking us to believe is that with 8.2% of the UK population Scotland created between 54% and 60% of the UK deficit last year, depending on the basis used.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bluntly, this is politically engineered nonsense, and it still astonishes me that the SNP government permit its publication when they know of these criticisms.<\/p>\n<p>But let's see what this morning brings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the last few years I have been involved in debate on the quality of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland statement. It is how<br \/><a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/2020\/08\/26\/today-is-gersday-the-day-when-the-government-expenditure-and-revenue-scotland-statement-is-published\/\"><em> Read the full article&#8230;<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,140],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-scotland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52423\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.taxresearch.org.uk\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}