I had a friend who has now decided to become a Brexit Party parliamentary candidate. There are some things friendship cannot survive. But I did try to work out what the advantages of his fervent No Deal enthusiasm might be, since the speech he showed me that he proposes to deliver on the stump only referred to deals we can already do with China and the USA, and what I consider to be some rather nasty racist tropes. So I drew myself a table. This is what I came up with in about fifteen minutes. Please feel free to add suggestions for both columns*.<\/p>\n
Costs of No Deal<\/strong><\/td>\n| Benefits of No Deal<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Trade will be harder, and cost more, so prices will rise<\/td>\n | 1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There will be peace in the Conservative Party for a week or so<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Holidays will be harder to arrange and will cost more<\/td>\n | 2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Brexit Party may cease to have a purpose<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Many skilled people will leave the UK at cost to us all<\/td>\n | 3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 President Trump will be happy, for a week or so<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Millions of EU citizens who have lived in the UK for years will face stress, having their family lives disrupted and the risk of deportation<\/td>\n | 4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We can ignore EU law, so long as we do not want to trade with them in any significant way<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Many EU citizens will face the risk of significantly increased costs for living here<\/td>\n | 5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We can make our own trade deals, so long as they are more favourable to other countries and migration than those the EU offers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 6.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Many British citizens living in the EU might lose their jobs or their right to live in the countries where they live, work, have families or have retired<\/td>\n | 6.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We can be a tax haven, so long as we can face losing the trade deals that this will cause<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 7.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Multinational companies will leave the UK, most especially in the manufacturing sector, but also in finance<\/td>\n | 7.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We can promote tax abuse so long as we can face the loss of international cooperation that follows from doing so<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 8.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The NHS will be short staffed<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 9.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 UK agriculture will be disrupted by staff shortages<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 10.\u00a0\u00a0 Many of our universities will fail because of a shortage of students<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 11.\u00a0\u00a0 We will spend years, and maybe decades, trying to negotiate new trade deals<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 12.\u00a0\u00a0 New trade deals will reduce consumer safety standards<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 13.\u00a0\u00a0 New trade deal will require that we lose control of migration from many countries<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 14.\u00a0\u00a0 Delivering the Green New Deal will be much harder<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 15.\u00a0\u00a0 Worker protection will be reduced<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 16.\u00a0\u00a0 The burden of tax will be shifted from companies onto employees<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 17.\u00a0\u00a0 Inequality will increase<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 18.\u00a0\u00a0 The UK will become a tax haven - making it much harder to do trade deals<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 19.\u00a0\u00a0 In the short term many companies will go bust because of trade disruption that will destroy their cash flows<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 20.\u00a0\u00a0 Unemployment will increase because companies will fail<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 21.\u00a0\u00a0 There's a real risk to people's health because drugs may not be available in the UK<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 22.\u00a0\u00a0 Our costs of government administration will increase because we can't share costs with other EU member states<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 23.\u00a0\u00a0 We will lose the protection of the European Court of Human Rights<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 24.\u00a0\u00a0 We will probably lose our seat at the UN<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 25.\u00a0\u00a0 There is a very good chance that the UK will break up<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 26.\u00a0\u00a0 There is a real risk of renewed strife in Northern Ireland<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n | * My former friend is not invited to comment: those promoting racist views, or who accuse me of racism for supporting Remain (apparently the EU is a white Christian conspiracy to which I subscribe)\u00a0 for are not welcome on this blog.<\/p>\n I add this in case it is easier to read (click on it for a larger version):<\/p>\n |
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